Like most, gonna be busy for a few days, so just wanna give a quick thanks to all the regs [and lurkers] for being part of a special season no matter how it ends; though obviously, a SB would make it magical!
So enjoy the eggnog, crazy uncles and football games. Cheers.
Bounceback Bears do it again.
Highlights here and here
Notable #Bears win percentages in key games they’ve won this year:
• Raiders: 19.3%
• Commanders: 15.9%
• Bengals: 14.1%
• Giants: 4.0%
• Vikings: 24.9%
• Packers: 3.0%
The probability of all those games being wins? 0.0001295%. Reverse Eberflus.
Since the NFL merger in 1970, just 43 of 422 teams made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, a percentage of just 10.1%
Bears have won 6 games trailing inside 2 minutes. That’s impossible – Collinsworth
McManus kicked an easy 28 YD FG to go up 16-3 with 5:03 left and two Bear TOs. I turn to the girl realizing this isn’t good and say, “We’re going to need a miracle, ”
She adds “Christmas miracle?”
“Yeah, a few, plural, actually.”
Mini-miracle #1. With about 4:57 left, the Bears [1/7 on 3rd/10 penalties 105 yds til this point] drive down the field and get within “FG Range.”
I put that in quotes because supposedly the wind was whipping up to 25 MPHs as we saw plastic cups whirling around like pigeons. So this 43 YD attempt with 2:04 left was mini-miracle #2.
I was IRATE screaming at the TV scaring all 7 rescue cats; the “hurricane” drill was too slow. Kicking unit needed to drill it well before the 2 min mark if the Bears wanted to stop the Packers on their ensuing possession with the 2 MIN as a defacto TO. I figured this is all but over. I was resigned. “Same ole Bears…pass the eggnog.”
This forced BJ to onside kick it. I don’t think he onsides it if he had the 2 MIN warning mark.
Teams were 4 for 47 in successfully recovering an onside kick [which now have to be telegraphed to opponents].
That’s an 8% success rate for us math challenged.
So the Bears with 1:59 line up for an onside.
And somehow, someway, RECOVER IT.
Major Christmas miracle #3!
Now the Bears had to matriculate about 52 YDs in 1:56 and two TOs [did I mention it was frigid and windy?]
They get the ball to the 14 with 28 secs left. 4rth and 4. Free blind-side blitzer. Caleb must throw off his backfoot drifting to his right, “Shit”. The ball looks like it’s sailing… then miracle #4. Some no-name rookie UDFA, only playing because both Rome and Burden are out, is wiiide open and the ball doesn’t sail but drops right into Walker‘s hands as he toe taps for the TD equalizing the game!
I start jumping up and down freaking out the rest of the cats – except the big fat fluffy one sprawled asleep on the couch, paws up.
I refer to her family as the KKK [Krazy Kat Kult].
“Christmas Miracle!” I shout. They obviously think I’ve lost my mind nonetheless get excited.
“No way…” she says under her breath
“See what I mean about cardiac Bears?” I excitedly respond, relieved as much jubilant.
I’m standing up now leaving the couch to the oblivious blissful felines.
Going to OT. “Serenity now…serenity now…”
Bears win coin-flip [minor-miracle #5 since this will allow Ben Johnson to essentially use 4 downs on offense. This shouldn’t be overlooked].
Packers get ball. Montez Sweat utterly destroys their RT, sacking back-up Malik Willis and seemingly hurting his shoulder. [At this point I should probably include Austin Booker kill-shotting Jordan Love, literally knocking him out of the game, as minor-miracle #6].
Despite this, Willis still gets the Pack to about their 42.
6:58 in OT. 3rd and 1. “Not a chance they stop them from getting 1-yd two downs in a row.”
Naturally, I’m talking to the TV per protocal, to which she interjects, “You’re like that commercial where you think the players can hear you!”
I forgot if I chuckled or totally ignored her zeroing in on the screen.
Willis takes the snap, scrambles – stopped. That shoulder may have slowed him down just enough on a cold night for TJ Edwards to stonewall him.
4rth and 1, naturally, Matt LeFleur is going for it.
Fumbled snap!
Miracle #-lucky 7!
I’m fist-pumping air trying not to curse like a sailor and appear the complete maniac. This is why I usually watch these games alone, but she made me a delectable hoagie and wings, so least I can do is not show-up shirtless and painted like Puddy.
Bears’ ball. 5:38 left in OT. 3rd and 3. Kyle Monangai shoots right up the middle to about Bears’ 53.
1st and 10, figure, Bears are just going to keep pounding it, bleeding the clock. They only need a FG, after all.
Apparently this is what the Packers assumed as well, as Caleb extends like a handoff to Monangai. The safeties bite, he pulls it down – launches:
This play will forever live in Chicago memory as “The Throw” or “The Catch”. TBH, I don’t even know which of the two was more remarkable. It may have been the most clutch play in Chicago sports, ever? Well, at least in decades.
That ball seemingly floated in the wind for eternities. “No way…” I gasped.
Then when I saw DJ laying there on his back half-dead, “No way…” I whispered, almost like a prayer.
DJ, in the endzone, rolls over, flops arms out…football drops as the ref runs by gloved hands in air…
“TD! TD! TD!” holy shit! this was one of the most ecstatic sport’s moments in my life.
Right up there with Hester opening the SB with a KO TD return. Right up there with Mike Tyson uppercutting [insert name], Kirk Gibson pumping his arms around the bases, MJ hitting that shot vs CLE… I wasn’t old enough for Miracle on Ice, but fuck it, throw that in retroactively.
DJ laying there like the Undertaker reminded me of when they carried MJ off the court in his flu-game.
It is perhaps the most fitting metaphor for us Bear fans up to now.
Just emotionally and maybe physically and psychically drained. Not just from this ’25 season, but perhaps for the past cumulative FORTY years [since ’85], and definitely for the past Favre-Rodgers’ era where the Packers have seemingly defeated the Bears in every soul-crushing fashion imaginable [Blocked FGs, Conte, Smoking Jay riding an exercise bike on the sidelines….].
I ran out of “Fuck yeahs!” or “Can’t believe this!” or “No way in hell!” or “Are you freaking kidding me!”
I was depleted of exclamation marks which were equal parts disbelief, terror and rapture.
Somewhere in the distance I faintly heard, “10 of 10, A+ Throw…the throw of Caleb William’s life. The catch of DJ Moore’s life…”
Like DJ, I just wanted to lay down, rest and/or absorb it all.
And like DJ, my circle probably had to also ask, “are you good?” before stabbing me through the sternum with adrenaline like in “Pulp Fiction”.
So I can pop up and fucking party like it’s 1999!
Bears win. Bears win. Bears win.
#1 in division. Knock down bitter rivals to 7th circle of hell. Still in the hunt for the #1 over-all seed. All on prime-time for the world to witness on a Saturday Night.
Bears like DJ resurrected.
Cold dish of vengeance dealt by the chilly arm of the Iceman.
Bearlieve in Miracles.
I’m out getting drunk and laid celebrating, so a proper piece will be posted later.
Enjoy, boys. #1 with a bullet.
The Iceman Cometh
Hey, Saint Brown worked like a charm last week. No need to mess with the formula.
One detail that stuck in my mind…instead of Caleb being all jubilant over the Browns ass-kicking, he was still salty from the previous loss at Lambeau even invoking the immortal words of Dennis Green, “We feel like we left them off the hook.” Other players expressed similar sentiments.
Bears really don’t like the Puke, and as we saw on TNF, when SEA felt disrespected ‘laughed at’, they flipped the switch.
BJ also doesn’t want to be made the fool for that whole “Kind of enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year” WWF statement.
So, game on.
Bear Down.
I was going to write up another in-depth Packer Preview, but the Bears just played them not two weeks ago, so nothing much has changed statistically.
That being said, much has changed personnel-wise, specifically, the INJ report.
As of Thurs night, here’s the Packers-Bears’ INJ report:
Packers Final Injury Report
Out: RB MarShawn Lloyd (calf/hamstring), TE Josh Whyle (concussion), G John Williams (back).[Parsons – OUT OUT]
Questionable: RB Chris Brooks (chest), DE Brenton Cox (groin), DE Kingsley Enagbare (illness), RB Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle), T/G Darian Kinnard (neck), DE Collin Oliver (hamstring), RT Zach Tom (knee/back), WR Christian Watson (chest/shoulder), WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), S Evan Williams (knee).
Note: Oliver, Cox and John Williams have been designated for return from injured reserve and are within their 21-day practice windows.
Bears Final Injury Report
Out: WR Luther Burden III (ankle), WR Rome Odunze (foot), LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (hamstring).
Questionable: DE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (personal), LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin), TE Cole Kmet (ankle/knee), RB D’Andre Swift (groin).
Note: Edmunds has been designated for return from injured reserve and is within his 21-day practice window
Naturally, Micah Parsons [ACL tear, 9 month recovery] out plus Christian Watson and Josh Jacobs as Questionable are tremendous losses. Even if Jacobs and Watson suit up, they can’t possibly be anywhere close to 100%.
Bears without Rome/Burden sucks as well, but Bears are a run first, 12 personnel team at heart, so all Zaccheus, Duvernay and Walker have to do is stay upright, block, and catch occasionally.
I think BJ will be smart enough to target DJ, Loveland and Kmet on key downs.
What I really want to write about though is that for the first time since maaaybe ’18, I believe the Bears can finish – not just with a winning record, or Wild Card appearance – but with a SB. The ’25 Bears can win it all.
Yes – all. The whole enchilada. The whole 9 yards. The entire shebang or whatever other phrases exist for them winning a SB.
It’s a confluence of many factors.
1. No real super-team this season.
Week in, week out, I have witnessed playoff teams ‘upset’. Whether it’s Pats losing to Raiders, Pack losing to Browns, Rams losing to Panthers, Bills losing to Dolphins, Broncos losing to Chargers, etc it’s one of those years where seemingly any team can indeed beat any favorite any given Sunday. So why not us?
2. Bears find different ways to win in crunch time.
Whether it’s a QB scramble, a big KR, a blocked FG, a forced fumble, an incredible INT, improbable throw/catch, or bruising runs to close, the Bears just get ‘er done. By now, they simply BELIEVE they will win. How barely matters. They’ve essentially been in playoff mode since week 3 [Cowboys], so a little pressure isn’t going to phase them.
3. Bears’ formula wins late season.
Don’t know if you noticed, but it’s getting pretty freaking freezing out there.
Luckily, the Bears are a run first team. The 1-2 punch of Swift-Monangai is now spoken in the same breath as Gibbs-Monty, Kyle Williams-Corum while The Oline ranks top 5 on many sites. And, oh yeah, they have two great blocking TEs in Kmet/Loveland.
Caleb Williams is arguably the best scrambler too which I appreciate even more after watching Stafford-v-Darnold on TNF.
Another part of the Bears’ formula is they don’t turn it over much.
Caleb rarely throws INTs, actually breaking the record for fewest INTs through the first 1K passing attempts. Unlike his predecessors , [looking at you Smoking Jay], he rarely gets strip-sacked [or even sacked].
Swift also doesn’t fumble much while Monangai at Rutgers attempted 669 rushes with ZERO fumbles.
So Bears don’t give away many freebies.
Which dovetails well with CREATING defensive TOs. #1 in NFL with 20, and #2 Texans aren’t even close with 14.
I, like many, was initially skeptical about Bears’ D keeping it up. As they say, TOs are unpredictable – not a good bet; nevertheless, Dennis Allen has made it just that – bankable. Somehow, someway, that D forces INTs/Fumbles, and they create momentum to win especially in hostile environments.
So, Bears…
Run fiercely+ block well+ limit TOs+ Force TOs= Wins
Oh, and they’re clutch!
4. Bears have elite coaching.
Wow. Can’t believe I just typed that. I’m having an out of body experience just reading that aloud.
Bears have elite coaching for the first time since Zubas were cool; I TRUST our brains outsmarting theirs.
The easy example is Ben Johnson which doesn’t need much explaining, but Dennis Allen may actually be doing a superior job at DC given what he has.
It’s not just them either. Look at the incredible turnaround of the Oline in just one season. Gotta give props to Dan Roushar for that.
The secondary is playing out of its mind, big pat of the back [to future HC] Al Harris.
Def Line coach Jeremy Garrett may even be sneaky good.
Sweat has quietly notched 8.5 sacks, Booker in 7 games has 3 sacks, while the run D has recovered from being a sieve early season.
via Matt Marton/Imagn
I don’t really believe in ‘moral losses’, but sometimes, they do happen. After Philly, many still claimed Bears were “fun frauds”. However, after nearly stealing a win at Lambeau, the league no longer scoffs.
I compared this team to both the SB winning Saints and Gmen; the Gmen in their finale took the Pats to the limit, ultimately losing 38-35.
Now you figure, ‘wow, tough loss. Gut punch and no way to lurch into the playoffs’, but it was quite the opposite.
“I know what everybody wrote and what everybody said we should do (against the Pats) and all the experts. Well, these are the same people that said we weren’t going to be in this position (10-6) and be in the playoffs, so we really don’t care what they say…[Antonio] Pierce [continued]. “All the experts supposedly said we were going to get beat by 20 or 30 points or whatever it was. That came down to the last couple minutes of the game.”
“With that mentality, again we are going into a place where our backs are going to be against the wall, where we play our best. And I hope we can go out there and show it off.”
Sound familiar?
Let’s hope history repeats. No reason it can’t.
Bearlieve.
and FGB.
Quick impressions. [Highlights]
1. Caleb Williams was on point. [17/28, 242, 2 TDs, 112.5 QB Rating]
Been making a lot about his comp% because regardless of what some Caleb-stans want to believe, accuracy does matter.
So many games are lost on balls that are behind, drive dead. Game over.
Ball too high, off hand, right into a critical INT. Or just plain ole misfires that leave a fan scratching his head.
I was actually surprised to see that Caleb’s comp% was ‘only’ 60.7% vs Browns.
Caleb Williams managed to crack the 60% completion percentage barrier for the 5th time this season (out of 14 games) vs. Browns. • Vikings 60.0% • Lions 63.3% • Cowboys 67.9% (Season-High) • Ravens 65.8% • Browns 60.7%
Luckily for the Bears, they faced an even less efficient QB!
Caleb’s comp% felt higher because it wasn’t simply completing the passes, but the ball placement of said completions. They seemed to strike that hit-box over and over again.
The Kmet catch where he gets up-ended really excited me. It was nothing spectacular. A simple play-action boot to a wide open Kmet in the flats, but Caleb didn’t sail it, or throw it too low, or late. He floated it in there allowing Kmet to turn up field and convert a 1st down.
That was the theme of the day. YAC. And the receivers YACked it up ’cause Caleb for the most part hit them in stride on a chilly day.
If Caleb keeps playing like that consistently over 4 QTRs, I tell you now, they have a legit SB chance especially if Swift keeps running like Forte [what du fook did Swift eat!]and defense continues creating TOs.
2. Speaking of which, wowzers, Dennis Allen wasn’t screwing around. The NFL gods threw him a raw QB who struggles with recognition, accuracy and timing, and unleashed the hounds of hell. No quarter offered – nor given. I love it.
TBH, this is sorta what I expected. My only reservation was if the Bears could generate enough pressure on Shedeur Sanders for him to implode, and boy did they. As the Latin maxim goes, “If you’re not strong, you better be smart” and Allen completely outflanked the Browns’ O. Austin Booker specifically had himself a game.
Austin Booker vs. The Browns
4 TOT; 3 solo; 2 sacks
In 6 games, he has 22 TOT, 14 Solo, 3 sacks, 2* TFL.
The defense dominated. The 3 points only came because BJ failed on a 4rth and gave the Browns the ball at midfield.
Add junk-time yards in that final drive where the Browns still couldn’t score, and that’s about it. This Browns teams wanted nothing to do with winning at a freezing SF.
Overtime:
We’ve given the special teams the biz [and for good reason], but they were good on Sunday [Outside the Santos missed FG]. Nice returns from Duvernay, solid gunning, Tori/Blackwell pinning Browns inside 1. I think it had more to do with the Browns sucking than the Bears’ sp teams transforming into Toub-ers, but hey, I’ll take it.
All in all, by far the Bears’ most complete game this season. I didn’t even have to bust out my glue in the 4rth QTR! Only took 15 weeks, but hey, it’s better to be gelling late heading into the playoffs then falling apart like the Chiefs.
Maybe it’s the eggnog, but I’m getting 2009 Saints/2011 Giants vibe.
In those seasons, neither were SB favorites in August, and both squads were far from a perfect roster.
The Saints particularly remind me of this D
The 2009 New Orleans Saints defense, under aggressive coordinator Gregg Williams, wasn’t dominant in yards/points but excelled at forcing turnovers (2nd in NFL with 39), leading to their Super Bowl XLIV win, featuring key playmakers like Darren Sharper (9 INTs), Will Smith (13 sacks), Jonathan Vilma, and Tracy Porter, who sealed the championship with a famous pick-six
Meanwhile the ’11 Gmen [9-7] had a young QB with ‘so so’ stats, but all he did was make clutch plays to win games in Eli Manning.
Bears are some hybrid of those two SB Champs, and in a year where no true juggernauts exist, hey – why not the Bears?
Can you believe only 4 games left?
Browns, Pack, @9ers, home finale Lions, and that’s a wrap.
Season has flown by, and we’re zooming into 2026. So savor it.
Browns[+7.5]-v-Bears
O/U 39.5 [Draftkings]
If you’re feeling nostalgic and want to see one of the craziest comebacks of all-time, click here!
By the numbers:
This is going to be a cold AF game. Like Dante’s 9th circle of hell freezing. Could be windy too, so the passing game will likely suffer.
That type of game should theoretically favor the Bears with their potent 1-2 HB punch while limiting Myles Garrett. However, Browns are no push-overs. Gotta remember they BEAT the Packers 13-10. I loved Quinshon Judkins in the draft and was hoping Poles could somehow steal him. He’s a 5’11, 220 pound hammer who runs a 4.48.
Browns also now have a better QB than Flacco.
I have caught some of Shadeur Sanders whenever I could because he piques my curiosity. I tell you what, when he has time, he can make plays.
Shedeur Sanders vs the Titans:
364 YARDS
3 PASS TD
1 RUSH TD
23/42 CMP
97.7 PASS RATING
[Big Time Throw/ TO Worthy Plays]
That being said, Shedeur’s depth of target is relatively low [screens]and his season long comp% is 52.4% [hey, finally a QB lower than Caleb!], so the key will be for Dennis Allen to find some way to pressure him. If Allen befuddles the rook, we could see a multiple INT game. If not, well, see above.
Their defense is scary lead by this generation’s Julius Peppers.
Myles Garrett already has 20 sacks! He needs 3 more vs Bears to break the all-time record of 22 [if I recall, Strahan got that with a little help from his buddy Favre]. Garrett’s record breaking campaign impresses more given the fact that the Browns were likely trailing in most games. Man, I hope Bears start recruiting him for next season!
Garrett is also a beast against the run, so via con dios, Ozzy Trapilo. Their run D overall has limited explosive runs [11th best] but allowed 2 vs Titans while the Bears didn’t have a run play over 10 yds vs Pack, so this is anyone’s guess in freezing conditions.
TLDR.
Bears control run, TOP, with tactical Caleb strikes while pressuring Shedeur = WIN.
*Cairo Santos doesn’t cuck it
OVERTIME:
We cover Caleb Williams a lot since QB is the most important position in all of sports, but we gotta give some laurels to what Dan Roushar is doing with that Oline.
Our 2024 Oline was abject dogshit. Now it’s one of the top units in all the NFL. I don’t think I’ve ever experienced this dramatic turn around for a Bears unit in my lifetime.
Here is Roushar’s former OT Terron Armstead talking about his coaching.
If you’re wondering about Ozzy Trapilo specifically, here is an excellent breakdown of him thus far.
Silliness:
Haven’t shared some Tim Jenkins Caleb Williams’ breakdown in a spell. Mostly ’cause Caleb gets sliced and diced more than a frog in a Jr. High Science class.
But here is a thorough analysis of every Caleb throw vs Puke.
One. It’s a bit frustrating seeing Caleb throw absolute perfect balls to Cole Kmet on the scramble drill, then Olamide Zaccheaus for that TD with a CB draped all over him; then the very first clip Caleb sails badly, or that last INT to lose the game.
Caleb is at 52.5% for the last 5 games which is actually LOWER than Kyle Orton [in 2nd yr].
I keep bringing up Kyle Orton on purpose since I don’t think that’s necessarily an insult. He finished his rook campaign at 51.6%, but more importantly, with a 10-5 record showing that a QB can win as a ‘game manager’. Problem is Orton’s D was much better than this ’25 D. OTOH, ’25 Bears’ D is leading the league in TOs, so it’s basically a wash.
However, unlike Orton, Caleb has a much livelier arm and mobility which has translated into less sacks and more explosive plays. Needless to say, Caleb just needs to ball from the opening bell. We keep waiting for it to happen, but what if this is just who Caleb is?
Two: Pure progression vs Post/Pre-Snap Look [PSL]:
Kurt Warner is a PSL believer. He advocates that the best QBs are the smartest QBs [in the pocket], and that the best way to outsmart a D is to actually diagnose it and take advantage of its particular flaws.
For instance, we all know that a big hole in the Cover 2 is a TE right up the seam [unless you have Urlacher as the MLB]. So, that TE becomes a QB’s #1 option.
In a pure progression the #1, #2, #3, etc are already predetermined coming out of the huddle. So it doesn’t matter if they’re playing Cover 2, Cover 3, the reads are locked in.
Jenkins illustrates the pros and cons of using either in his video.
Pro. When the PS look is super muddy [Think Dennis Allen on 3rd downs]. 8 defenders all lined up close to LOS, a QB has no clue if they’re going zero blitz, some blitz, falling back to Cover 2, etc
So, pure progression simplifies it since it barely matters what the D is doing. 1, 2, 3 already baked into the play.
Con. That final Caleb INT where #1 seemed to be Kmet when maybe it could’ve been altered at the line to DJ [or just straight sprint?]. There’s plenty of other examples in this video alone. How many times throughout the season have we been screaming, “Look, he’s open!” Yes, but maybe he was the 4rth option while Caleb was running for his life.
“Predetermined” is the keyword. From the outside it looks like Caleb just locks onto a target, but maybe that’s what BJ WANTS him to do [for now].
Either way, Jenkins does an excellent job of showcasing the debate as well as explaining some of Ben Johnson’s playcalling logic.
