Still slow. I come across interesting vids of football trends, macros and coaching points which illuminate the modern NFL.
This vid dives into whether the cliche ‘run the damn ball’ actually still works
Spoiler alert – running the ball still works, but not maybe as expected. The days of 200 rushing games are much more rare now [though it seems Swift/Monagai racked up a couple last season]. What’s more important is that once the threat of it IS established, it backs off the safeties. It perhaps makes DCs go less exotic and more basic – and the bootleg becomes a REAL danger.
Most big plays now are off PA and most come in 30-40 yd chunks. Gone are the days of the 5-7 step chuck it up to Randy Moss for 70 yds.
DCs are just too smart. Secondaries too fast. DE s like Garrett too dominant. Need to fool the Ds.
This also tracks with the 9ers just pouncing the Bears. They established the run. Got the LBs and Safeties biting on everything. Then Purdy hit guys wide open on PA. Rinse wash repeat. The D was running like a chicken with its head cut off.
Focusing on the run also enhances the value of the center. So it’s no wonder Linderbaum got PAID or why Bears attacked the C position so vigorously once Dalman retired. The O may literally run through it.
In case you live in a 50’s silo, Rams are going all-in for reigning defensive player of year Myles Garrett. Myles Garrett is coming off a historic season in which he broke the single season sack record. I normally discount a lot of these records which take extra games to achieve. OJ, not Dickerson, AP or Barry, may have my vote for best RB season of all time based on this logic.
But context matters, and we gotta remember, Garrett broke that record [23] on the Browns [mic tap]. THE BROWNS. Not very many games they were playing with a two TD lead to force the opponents to go Air-Raid. I also vividly recall Favre folding into a fetal position for his buddy Strahan to break that record previously, so it’s not as if HIS record was clean either, and Strahan crying about it is epically ironic. Garret also hit the QB 39 times along with notching 33 TTFLs. Incredible.
More details will emerge, I’m certain, but as of right now, this is the compensation:
Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter ·1h🚨🚨🚨
Bombshell: The Browns are finalizing a trade that will send two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams, per @rapsheet,@TomPelissero and me.
In exchange for Garrett, the Rams are expected to send Pro-Bowl edge Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick and other draft-pick compensation still being negotiated to the Browns.
🏈Rams receive: Myles Garrett
🏈Browns receive: Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 2nd and a 2029 3rd.
In other words, Rams are going all-in. I was going to write a big article on whether the Bears should make a move on Garrett. The idea centered around ONE question:
Are Bears ready for a true SB push?
Follow up question – trading for Garrett the same as trading for Mack?
Which begs a bigger question. How much better are BJ/Caleb than Nagy/Trub?
Trading multiple 1sts and premium players for a legit SB shot, better?
Or are we, like with Nagy/Trub, falling into the same wishful fallacy that landed Mack but wrecked the team long-term once the Nagy/Trub gambit fizzled out?
Well, all that is moot now as the Rams are signing their Reggie White.
A team the Bears will no doubt have to face in the playoffs the next two years or so, which coincidently mirrors the Caleb rook contract ‘window.’
Lots to consider here, but I’ll keep it short.
I don’t know if the Bears COULD’ve competed against the Rams for Myles.
While BJ/Caleb are promising, if you’re a 30 yr old Myles, you want proven not promising, and McVay/Stafford are proven. They also eliminated Bears from last playoffs. The L.A./Hollywood angle, esp contrasted against Factory of Sadness, is also a real factor.
In addition, the Bears didn’t really roster a Verse lvl defender to throw into the mix [thxs Poles!]. I guess you can dangle Sweat, but then the Browns likely ask for more draft capital, and at this point, it seems like treading water.
Maybe they could’ve offered Rome and Gordon. That’s likely the route I’d go if I’m Bears’ GM. I don’t really believe in Rome. Burden and Loveland are the two top receiving options IMO; plus, we still have Kmet, a new TE, and a gadget KR/WR/Slot.
Gordon is a walking hamstring. Trade him before it’s too late.
OTOH, maybe the Bears really didn’t have a shot. Maybe Garrett told CLE, “It’s L.A. or bust, baby.” and that was that.
So where does this leave the Bears?
Proper fucked.
The Bears are in a Cold War against the Evil Empire – The Packers – who traded for Micah Parsons.
NOW, they’re in an arms’ race vs Rams who just acquired a cobalt bomb.
Not sure Bears could afford to keep sitting on their hands and realistically hope that somehow a motivated Dayo, old Jarrett and raw Booker>ONE Myles Garrett.
This trade might force Poles to more aggressively target, say, DT Jeffery Simmons. More likely outcome though – Poles signs an old ass Cam Jordan or Bosa.
That, or BJ/Caleb must go scorched earth 2000 Rams’ style.
In the early days of the Meiji era there lived a well-known wrestler called O-nami, Great Waves.
O-nami was immensely strong and knew the art of wrestling. In his private bouts he defeated even his teacher, but in public he was so bashful that his own pupils threw him.
O-nami felt he should go to a Zen master for help. Hakuju, a wandering teacher, was stopping in a little temple nearby, so O-nami went to see him and told him of his trouble.
“Great Waves is your name,” the teacher advised, “so stay in this temple tonight. Imagine that you are those billows. You are no longer a wrestler who is afraid. You are those huge waves sweeping everything before them, swallowing all in their path. Do this and you will be the greatest wrestler in the land.”
The teacher retired. O-nami sat in meditation trying to imagine himself as waves. He thought of many different things. Then gradually he turned more and more to the feeling of the waves. As the night advanced the waves became larger and larger. They swept away the flowers in their vases. Even the Buddha in the shrine was inundated. Before dawn the temple was nothing but the ebb and flow of an immense sea.
In the morning the teacher found O-nami meditating, a faint smile on his face. He patted the wrestler’s shoulder. “Now nothing can disturb you,” he said. “You are those waves. You will sweep everything before you.”
The same day O-nami entered the wrestling contests and won. After that, no one in Japan was able to defeat him.
Still nothing of note going on. This is not necessarily the worst thing [just ask Vrabel Pats or Josh Jacob Puke].
As such, finally got around to watching “Nuremburg” starring Russell Crowe as Hermann Göring, Rami Malek [played Freddy Mercury] as psychiatrist Douglas Kelley, and Michael Shannon as Chief Prosecutor Robert H. Jackson.
Crowe superbly plays the highly intelligent, capable and charming Göring. I can’t help but think of Crowe as a younger fit Maximus; now he’s the fat decadent Generalissimo. Perhaps some meta there.
Göring was a legit war hero and ace with 22 confirmed kills in WW1. To put that in perspective, Maverick barely eked out 5 to be Ace. He has the charm and talent of Maverick, the ambition and planning of Iceman, the narcissism of BOTH yet the moral compass of this guy.
That is a DANGEROUS combo as the movie seductively exhibits in a fascinating psychological portrait of “evil.”
The lead prosecutor presents the ‘objective’ adversary, while the psychiatrist seems nearly tragically stuck between, like a fly slowly being consumed by a black hole. It reminds me of what William Blake said about Milton writing “Paradise Lost”: Milton secretly admired Satan.
What I like about this movie is that it shows what needed to take place BEFORE “Saving Private Ryan.” Before the cinematic slaughter of oblivious citizens who were enjoying their apple pie before picking up an M1 Garand. History starts with steins, podiums and gavels, not rifles.
By the end, one will find this all a bit unnerving and relevant, because, sadly, “evil” is ALWAYS relevant: it’s only a crash, pandemic, attack or humiliation away from crawling out of our filthy crawlspaces.
Man, I love the 2025 Season. I find myself watching the replays of it more than any other outside ’85, naturally. [I can’t really bring myself to re-watch the ’06 season because them losing the SB still pisses me off. Just hand the ball to Jones, Lovie!]
As such, I’ll repost the condensed Eagles-V-Bear game.
Small recap. Eagles and Bears both boasted an 8-3 record. Bears were dogs on the road. Everyone assumed they were fugazi and the Iggles would expose them. NOPE.
That being said, it was a very uneven game. The stats were overwhelmingly for the Bears. They nearly doubled the TOP of the Eagles. Monangai alone went over 100 by the 4rth. Bears converted 21 1st downs to the Eagles’ 7 at the start of the 4th. Yet it was still 10-9 and needed 4rth down Loveland conversions, steamrollers plus Caleb magic to close it winning 9 out of last 10 and making the skeptic Bearlieve.
Colston Loveland’s success rate on a route tree last year
One thing that was beautiful – when Eagles tried the Brotherly Shove and the DTs held while Nashon Wright attacked and stripped Hurts on their signature play. Totally changed momentum.
Gotta root for Wright. Dude had rusty hips which couldn’t flip but had a knack for TOs.
The Bishop tells us: ‘When the boys come back ‘They will not be the same; for they’ll have fought ‘In a just cause: they lead the last attack ‘On Anti-Christ; their comrades’ blood has bought ‘New right to breed an honourable race, ‘They have challenged Death and dared him face to face.’
‘We’re none of us the same!’ the boys reply. ‘For George lost both his legs; and Bill’s stone blind; ‘Poor Jim’s shot through the lungs and like to die; ‘And Bert’s gone syphilitic: you’ll not find ‘A chap who’s served that hasn’t found some change. ‘ And the Bishop said: ‘The ways of God are strange!’
– Siegfried Sassoon, 1917
I happened to stumble across a doc on Scottish Independence. I couldn’t stop watching, so I’ll share.
Declaration of Arbroath, 1320
“As long as a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be subjected to the lordship of the English. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself”.
For FREEDOM, not oil, power or geopolitical posturing.
It’s slow as molasses, and the one thing I whole-heartedly agreed with Jeff on was not posting filler material Sports Mockery style. Luckily for y’all, I’m not much a haikuer!
I keep my ears more perked for Chicago-centric stories, and here’s an interesting [2 yr old] vlog on how unique Wrigley Field is, and what it can mean for both the White Sox and Da Bears.
Because Wrigley is now designated as a Historical Land Mark, it’s nigh impossible to modify which creates a nightmare for waste. ONE Cub game produces 315 TONS of waste. Holy, and unholy, crap!
What I didn’t know. Comiskey Park was originally built over a garbage dump in 1909. Talk about an apt metaphor [Zing!] So maybe Indiana land-fill fits the Chicago Stadium tradition, after all.
Still, that’s better than what the Dodgers did when they kicked out all the Mexican women and children from Chavez Ravine and built over graves.
Forcible Evictions: The final holdout families—some of whom refused to sell their properties—were forcefully evicted by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department on May 9, 1959, an event known locally as “Black Friday”
Maybe ICE agents should sport Dodger hats when out raiding.
Though I suppose it can always be worse. ‘Merica!
Clemson Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC): For years, thousands of tailgating football fans parked over approximately 500 unmarked graves. The site is the final resting place for enslaved men and women who built the original university plantation, as well as early Black sharecroppers.
Makes worrying about ‘light pollution’, parking, seating, domes and traffic seem like Gen Alpha issues.
Shot out to the vlogger for a Ship of Theseus Paradox reference. Speaking of Stadium, apparently the Bears haven’t even done a traffic study for Arlington. My other stat prof [I had like 4 of them since I kept flunking] used to actually do traffic studies. Think he said the goal was just to keep drivers making lefts [insert “National European Vacation” Paris scene here].
Some early camp observations. Personally, I like Clay Harbor. Former TE who, unlike Olin, doesn’t love everyone in a Bears’ uni. I find his breakdowns to the point.
So here’s his takes from last week.
They play an Allen clip talking about acquiring Cam Jordan. Not sure if it’ll happen, but needless to say I wouldn’t mind more help at Dline as Harbor addresses the obvious red flags for Dayo and Turner.
‘Dayo had one sack vs a backup before his Achilles tore [2nd time, btw] while Turner played a grand total of 74 football snaps which is approx ONE game’
Harbor further elaborates, ‘The Seahawks’ top sack leader last season only had 7 sacks [3 less than Sweat]. Eagles the season prior? 8 sacks. But what they did have was waves of rushers.’
I think it’s reasonable to count on Sweat and Booker to get those 8ish sacks; however, who are the 3rd and 4rth rushers to keep the heat up? God help Bears if either Sweat or Booker miss time.
The vid also covers why the Bears made Center practically priority #1 counting on Caleb and the O to force opposing teams into more passing downs trying to catch up.
Also mentions Xavion Thomas and Sam Rouche as standouts and how Luther Burdern, not Rome, will be WR1.
‘Burden finished extremely efficiently. Project his last 5 games and that’s 1,200 yds.
Burden’s passer rating when targeted = 110 DJ = 110 Loveland = 103 Rome = 81 [sad trombone].
Maybe it was Rome’s foot. Or maybe he’s simply not a top 10 pick.
Still, despite all the empirical evidence, numbers and data proving thus, still feels wrong.
At this point if God himself descended to Soldier Field to declare the Bears are getting treated fairly, I still wouldn’t believe it!
So for those who want to check out the pieces, just click on the 3 previous blogs.
Onward, and upward to schedules.
NFL is desperately attempting to make itself relevant year-round. First by extending the season from 11 games, to 12, 14, 16, 17, and soon to be, 18.
Then they increased the playoff teams, adding a WC [which many traditional fans argued ‘watered-down’ the playoffs].
SB may eventually land on Valentines’ Day, which I’m sure will go over well with the ladies.
Then the NFL slowly but steadily built up the combine/Draft. Spearheaded by LegoHead Mel Kiper; it’s now an entire cottage industry. We got countless YTubers breaking down tape, mocking, grading, applying nerd-ball metrics, even supplying ProFootball Weekly style draft guides [PDF version, naturally].
But alas, the draft ends, and casual fans once more disappear unless they’re really fiending for more draft in the form of class grades or worse – ’27 mocks!
So, the NFL is trying to manufacture a new niche industry to sucker in more fans with Hollywood style ‘schedule releases’, and yes, ppl are actually now GRADING the productions! It won’t be long until YTubers are making their OWN schedule release vids. Book it.
Schedules have also become much more complicated than they used to be. Before, it was just Strength of Opponent = [SOS]. But as Harry at ChatSports illustrates, ppl are now factoring ‘net rest advantage’ Apparently the Bears are at +15 while the Chargers are -24 rest days, whatever that means.
Other nerdball metrics? Air-miles and playing teams coming off a bye + Prime Time games [now put them altogether and GP that shit].
It should be noted that the schedule is not totally irrelevant. Last season the Pats played one of the easiest schedules of ALL TIME, and they basically skated into the playoffs before getting absolutely curb stomped by a real team in the SB.
How much does it matter though? Well, that’s what Vegas is for, but the NFL changes weekly, even daily. Micah Parsons going on IR for the first 4 weeks is going to move the line. If Bo Nix’s ankle is proper-fucked, that changes odds dramatically. A backup QB starting will almost automatically make them dogs [unless they’re playing the Bears].
Here’s Chris Simms on Vegas and DIV odds
What’s interesting is how conservatively Vegas pushes. They’re still favoring the usual suspects as last season, including the Lions; in fact the only change is Rams over 9ers.
ThienemanSZN@ThienemanSZN ·May 14 The Bears open as favorites in 12/17 games
(-2.5) Bears @ Panthers (-3.5) Bears vs Vikings (-1.5) Bears vs Eagles (-8.5) Bears vs Jets (+3.0) Bears @ Packers (-3.0) Bears @ Falcons (-1.5) Bears vs Patiots (+4.5) Bears @ Seahawks (-3.5) Bears vs Buccaneers (-6.5) Bears vs Saints (+2.5) Bears @ Lions (-2.5) Bears vs Jaguars (-5.5) Bears @ Dolphins (+3.5) Bears @ Bills (-1.5) Bears vs Packers (-1.5) Bears vs Lions (+1.5) Bears @ Vikings
Yet they’re also favoring the Bears to win 12 out of 17. Ergo, Lions are winning 13+ games while sweeping the Bears despite still missing Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn?
Who’s QBing the Vikings? “Seven” or Kyler Murray? How gimpy is Parson’s back? Other teams in the NFCN still have major questions relative to Bears. Naturally, Bears also present their own major question [Dline], but a fan can’t help but be optimistic about the core –
BJ, Allen, and Caleb.
We’re trusting somehow they’ll get ‘er done, net rest or not – catchy promo or not. Odds be damned. All in!
You will want to read Pt. 1 and 2 before reading this article.
Aggregating the data from sources is a big PITA and so something has to go, and that is me summarizing too much. What I will say is that Pt. 1 looks at the high level deficit and see how many standard deviations we were off from other teams. Pt. 2 is looking at crews and seeing if all crews or some crews contributed to the Bears being bad.
Last article, I mentioned that Ben Johnson talked last camp (his 1st camp) about the culture and all the talk was how he was gonna be the Caleb whisperer, and for the most part, Caleb became a better QB under BJ. But that the teams’s OL woes kepts at him, and how he didn’t implement his full suite of tricks, formations and isolated mismatches. And that the Bears were, again, the lowest team in the league at getting flags thrown on their opponents. What we found was contra-examples of ref crews who seemed to be pro-Bears, but many krews called few penalties against Bears oppo.
My speculation is that for many years, Nagy and then Floose – Jussie back there – it was amazing to watch them even FIELD an offense. When a hobbled Darnell Mooney is your deep threat, and your OL has Jussie running for his life exactly 2 seconds after each snap, yeah, you ain’t getting a lot of DPI. You need a pocket to begin with to get roughing the passer.
I also stated that, organization wide, the Bears were a historically inept organization. Kevin Byard, on the Thanksgiving day meltdown, threw a water bottle at Floose’s head when he tried to address the team after the game. A bad analyst would state that Floose lost the team that day. A good analyst would state that Floose never had the team to begin with. Nobody bought in on that guy. Did you see Hard Knocks? Caleb is openly rolling his eyes having to listen to that guy, that Poles asked the HBO crew for shots of Floose looking thoughtfully at playbooks. As if.
So, to really bury this thing, we need some things. Bears against per game / crew non-Bears baseline: 1.00x Bears benefit per game / crew non-Bears baseline: 0.79x
The Bears get penalized at exactly the league-average rate by these same crews. They draw 21% fewer flags on their opponents than those same crews call on other teams’ opponents. The “flag-prone Bears” hypothesis is dead. The deficit lives entirely on the benefit side.
Per-crew breakdown — sorted by Ben/Base ratio (lowest = most asymmetric against Bears):
Crew BG Crew_G Baseline Agst/g Ben/g Agst/x Ben/x Scott Novak 5 66 46.06 56.40 21.00 1.22 0.46 Ron Torbert 4 69 51.30 54.50 23.75 1.06 0.46 Brad Rogers 6 65 53.36 46.17 29.17 0.87 0.55 John Hussey 4 67 46.87 55.25 27.50 1.18 0.59 Tra Blake 3 48 50.14 45.67 30.00 0.91 0.60 Alex Kemp 2 69 51.28 90.50 32.00 1.76 0.62 Shawn Hochuli 2 68 52.95 32.00 37.50 0.60 0.71 Alex Moore 2 16 64.86 61.50 47.50 0.95 0.73 Carl Cheffers 6 68 49.61 41.50 38.33 0.84 0.77 Clete Blakeman 5 68 50.88 49.80 40.80 0.98 0.80 Bill Vinovich 2 69 44.81 39.00 39.50 0.87 0.88 Adrian Hill 7 65 52.91 37.29 48.71 0.70 0.92 Clay Martin 5 68 48.10 60.00 45.80 1.25 0.95 Shawn Smith 2 68 47.34 67.00 47.50 1.42 1.00 Brad Allen 5 66 43.83 22.60 45.00 0.52 1.03 Land Clark 4 66 46.73 55.25 49.50 1.18 1.06 Alan Eck 3 48 45.01 79.00 48.00 1.76 1.07 Craig Wrolstad 3 69 47.61 42.67 56.67 0.90 1.19
Sign tests on the new metrics Bears Agst > crew baseline: 8 of 18 crews (p = 0.76) ← right at chance Bears Ben < crew baseline: 13 of 18 crews (p = 0.048) ← directional
This is the real finding.
What the test was supposed to distinguish:
Flag-prone Bears → Agst > 1, Ben ≈ 1 (both teams take normal flags from these crews; Bears just commit more)
Anti-Bears bias → Agst > 1 AND Ben < 1 (asymmetric on both sides)
Bears get fewer opponent flags specifically → Agst ≈ 1, Ben < 1 (asymmetric only on the benefit side)
The data shows the third pattern, decisively. The Bears commit penalties at the same rate every other team does under these crews. The deficit is entirely about opponents not getting flagged when playing them. That kills the lazy “Bears just take a lot of flags” story — it’s empirically wrong.
Crews where the asymmetry is strongest (sample size matters):
Scott Novak (5 games): 0.46x benefit. His non-Bears games average 46 yds against per team; his Bears games give Chicago 21 yds of opponent calls per game.
Brad Rogers (6 games): 0.55x benefit. Calls fewer opponent penalties on Bears’ opponents than on others’ opponents.
John Hussey (4 games): 0.59x benefit, 1.18x against — the only crew showing the textbook two-sided pattern at meaningful sample size.
Adrian Hill (7 games): 0.92x benefit but only 0.70x against — actually treats Bears slightly favorably on the benefit side, and unusually leniently on the penalty side.
Brad Allen (5 games, retired after ’23): 1.03x benefit, 0.52x against — he was actively the most pro-Bears crew in the league before he left.
What this means for the bias hypothesis.
With the flag-prone-team alternative now empirically dead, the surviving non-bias explanations are scheme/personnel:
Bears defense doesn’t induce opponent penalties — Bears don’t pressure QBs in ways that trigger holding/false-start rates from opposing OLs. Possible – if you have a quiet front seven. Did the Bears have a poor front seven these years? Ask Waffle.
Bears offense doesn’t draw DPI — fewer deep shots or contested catches, so opposing DBs aren’t put in flag-drawing situations. Plausible for Fields/Bagent/Caleb-rookie eras; harder to credit for Ben Johnson’s 2025 attack.
Bears don’t play teams that commit a lot of penalties — schedule effect. Plausible but the NFC North includes Minnesota, the most-flagged opponent in the league. So let’s toss that one.
Can you give a bitch a break?
Sure. The 0.79x aggregate is striking enough that some combination of those factors has to be doing real work, OR there’s a genuine officiating tilt. Updated Bayesian: with prior 5%, P(asymmetric pattern | bias) ≈ 0.6, P(asymmetric pattern | scheme effects) ≈ 0.20:
You have names now, you can hold onto “the Bears specifically don’t draw flags on their opponents when these particular crews are calling the game,” and that’s a much more salty question. But what you cannot do is show it’s anything more than those crews having a bias towards their back judges, and looking for DPI. We know that the NFL keeps changing what it wants with regards to DPI and how each crew is choosing to implement that across all games is probably the story. Not that the Bears get fucked.
Did we sink the Orca? Fuck no. What would the NFL be without third rate journos chumming the water for cheap engagement? Making wild claims that analysis does not support?
Roughly 14% on bias — modest update, because scheme effects remain a credible explanation for opponents-only deficits. And that’s where I fall. I fall on the team having a shit OL, an anemic DL; the swing is not across all crews. A WIDE variation exists, but when you put in the fix, maybe Goodell only bribes a few crews. If you want to hang on to the anti-Bears argument with your fingernails, you have enough data to die on that hill. But I don’t think so.
The next test, which I am not doing because now this is getting to be real work, would be against-side breakdowns by penalty type. If Bears’ deficit in opponent DPI calls specifically tracks with their offensive air-yards profile, scheme wins. If it doesn’t track — if Bears get short-changed on garden-variety opponent holding and false starts that aren’t scheme-dependent — then bias gets harder to explain away. I am pretty certain that were I to dig further into that hole, I would not find that.
Well, analysis done. Nothing stands out, esp. when you compare the crews to how they behave across the league. There is no there there. Would it be fun if there was? Maybe.
But I prefer the narrative that George is just a massive bonehead and good coaches just didn’t want to come here until Poles realized he was on his way out unless he convinced them to open the checkbook for a Ben Johnson. Which he did. He used Warren to tie to the move. It was savvy politics. Bears need to be a playoff team to help the case w. the Illinois legislature. Being an inept doormat had run it’s course. If they were competent they would have hired real head coaches instead of Trestman and Nagy. And now Ben Johnson is working towards a team that CAN draw DPI and false starts. Well, more on the DPI, not investing anything in the front seven is going to do nothing for drawing false starts.
Conclusion:
I made my arguments, showed that there is a statistical residual effect that crap journos can point to, but there are many other contradictory truths here that are more suggestive of a deeper problem that NFL officating has, which is that krews are not consistently applying standards to DPI. Is this news, really? Because any true football fan has known this for years. Let me wrap up the findings then, with the risk-reward ratio. If that does not dispel the story then nothing will and you may want to join Irish at breaking into Area 51 because conspiracy is just your groove dude, get a Q-Anon tshirt.
Here is what you have to believe to think this is a real directive: The NFL risk – if any of these krews,made up of SEVEN men plus a dedicated reply official tied to that crew in New York – if any of those guys get a hankering to talk to the Guardian or Intercept about this, you blow the league up. Goodell better have a Deadpool class assassin at the ready since fucking a major market like Chicago will gain you all kinds of 2nd rate journalists picking up the story once the first-rate ones open that gate.
The reward: One flag per game. Either holding on the oppo OL or OPI on their wideouts. You have to imagine a conversation that singles out 10 of 15 crews, because the NFL psych profile won’t risk it on the other five, and you say to them “don’t call MORE penalties on the Bears, just DON’T call one penalty on their opponents that you otherwise would have. Don’t go more than one, or the stats will start to look too bad, just one flag and then go back to being a fair ref. Maybe you just need the line judge or the back judge and not the whole crew. You have heard of point shaving, this is penalty shaving.
What does that buy you in terms of W-L? A single flag? Almost nothing. It’s so improbable to change a game the math isn’t worth showing. So, you risk the state of the whole league to just, perhaps, do a 2nd order point shave? Wouldn’t it be easier to just Art Schliester that shit and get to a QB who needs money? Or a RB? Just about any player is a better risk than a ref, who isn’t paid that well, may be a lawyer himself in real life, and is likely to be much more savvy about leaking the story? Or can we just say that the Bears didn’t draw holding because the DL was not that good at getting sacks? Or the Bears OL didn’t get DPI because for alot of that time their QB was basically another running back? We live in insane times where all manner of insane conspiracies get chummed. It’s sad that it’s coming from people who hold themselves out as experts, because their “expertise” is shit.
