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TBC, I did NOT write this! So put down the pitchforks. One of the drawbacks of basically being a one man blog [with awesome help from some regs] is the risk of solipsism, or worse – an infinite circle-jerk! I’m naturally an optimistic person, and as such, tend to shy away from negative criticism [until the evidence is overwhelming – see, Smoking Jay Cutler]. However, that doesn’t mean more negative takes aren’t out there!
The most consistent, and in-depth, critique I have crossed on Twitter is certainly FIRST ROUND MOCK@firstroundmock . He’s basically in a one-man death match with the entire Chicago Bears’ fan base, so tip-o-the hat to him since I wouldn’t even bother. Well, without further ado, here’s his latest “Caleb Hit Piece”. I’ll let you decide [I may add some more independent evidence which reinforces his case].
Caleb Williams is not getting better.
Caleb Williams is regressing.
And the longer he holds onto the ball, the worse his “accuracy” becomes.
What’s the most alarming part about Caleb Williams?
He hasn’t responded to Ben Johnson’s coaching.
Johnson came out before this past season, stating that his goal for Williams was a 70% completion percentage.
Here‘s that article talking about that:
[Here for 1st Round Scouting Report]
Not only did Williams not reach that goal ⎯
He screamed in the opposite direction.
Williams actually regressed under Johnson. Williams dropped from a 62.5% completion percentage in 2024 to a 58.1% completion percentage during the regular season in 2025 ⎯
And then he dropped to a 52.2% completion percentage in the playoffs.
Will he improve?
No.
Why?
Williams is in love with playing hero ball.
He loves to hold onto the ball too long.
He hates to get the ball out of his hand on time.
He hates structure.
He likes to run around back there like a chicken with its head cut off and play his brand of football, which is — unstructured — playground football.
Williams actually had a better completion percentage and got the ball out of his hand faster when Matt Eberflus was his head coach.
Think about that.
Williams time to throw (PFF):
2024: 3.03 seconds
2025: 3.23 seconds
The numbers speak for themselves.
Johnson even built a better offensive line for Williams ⎯
And he still couldn’t get the ball out of his hand faster.
All it did was make him more comfortable holding onto the ball longer.
Just about everyone out there wants to continue to whisper sweet nothings in your ear about Williams, but the truth of the matter is, Williams is regressing in the NFL; he’s regressing right in front of our eyes.
And ⎯
With just about everybody out there telling him “how wonderful he is,” and “making excuses for him,” will not motivate change.
All that’s going to do is solidify his one-way ticket out of Chicago.

Most everyone will try to tell you that Williams “led the Bears to the playoffs,” but I’ll tell you the truth.
The Bears No. 3 rushing attack (142.3 yards per game) and his YAC receivers carried him (1,889 of his “3,942 passing yards” during the 2025 regular season were YAC per PFF).
They’ll all try to tell you Williams is getting “better,” but I’ll tell you the truth, he’s regressing. The longer he holds the ball⏱️ the more his accuracy declines 📉
But “what about all the dropped passes” they’ll cry***Quarterbacks control the timing, velocity, and location of their passes.
“Look up in the sky! It’s a bird, it’s a plane…”
No…it’s not Superman
It’s a Bust.

I [Butch back] was going to post these graphs, but I’m heeding the words of a publisher, ‘the more math a book presents, the less it sells,’ so, I’m just going to link a ‘predictive model for 1st round QBs‘
It basically breaks it down into categories.
1. NFL EPA Per Play vs Predicted NFL EPA Per Play based on College-to-NFL QB Prediction Model (QBs with at least 150 snaps since 2015)
2. NFL EPA Per Play vs Pressure-to-Sack Rate on Plays w/o a Blitz (in College) (QBs with at least 150 snaps since 2015)
3. NFL EPA Per Play vs Accuracy % on Throws between 10-19 yards (in College) (QBs with at least 150 snaps since 2015)
4. NFL EPA Per Play vs BTT Rate on Plays >2.5sec (in College) (QBs with at least 150 snaps since 2015)
Summary. If you don’t want to bust out your binoculars, I’ll simply relay that on a scale of Nathan Peterman [absolute awful] to Purdy/Mahomes [excellence], Caleb Williams consistently floats in the realm of Daniel Jones, Lawrence, Darnold, Mariota, Brissett, Minshew and yes, Fields.
It’s a mixed neighborhood. Mostly talented QBs who didn’t live up to hype, though not outright busts; worth noting, Darnold DID win a SB [despite only completing 61% of his passes during his ’25 playoff run].
So, what does this all mean? Well, guess we’ll find out soon enough.


















