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  • SB LX Lessons

    SB LX Lessons

    What can we decipher from the past 2 SB winners?

    1. Pass rush is king.
    More specifically, a FOUR man pass-rush. Lovie got a lot of things wrong, but he was absolutely correct in emphasizing the importance of a 4-man pass rush. Lovie developed them well. T-Harris, ‘Wale, Alex Brown, Izzy, Mark Anderson [briefly]. Worked well with Peppers.
    Sure, he was fallible here [heelllo Shea, Flatbread, Jarron Gilbert, Jared Allen…], but Lovie’s instincts were correct:

    A dangerous 4-man pass-rush can carry teams.

    I won’t present some exhaustive 3-parter proving this as it seems somewhat self-evident, but let’s examine the past two SB winners:

    On top of that, SEA also stuffed the run:

    Needless to say, a strong front four, especially up the gut, seems almost mandatory to win in the modern NFL. It just makes life way easier for the back seven; a strong front-four allows for some mistakes, more creativity, more disguises, more aggression, and it almost doesn’t matter who the opposing QBs are.

    Maye was terrible!

    However, Stafford had a legit MVP ’25 Season, and SEA handled him THRICE. Eagles utterly destroyed Mahomes’ Chiefs that went 17-3 that year.

    Imagine if Dayo didn’t suck, and if Poles traded for Jeffery Simmons. Just those two factors may have launched the Bears to a true SB run despite all the other deficiencies, injuries and inexperience.

    Needless to say, this will be priority #1 for Poles, but building a ferocious four ain’t easy. He’s gotta hit some grandslams like SEA and Philly.

    Lesson #2. Don’t pay HBs.

    Notice I didn’t say “Ignore HBs.” Philly traded for Barkley, and he carried them to the SB. SEA drafted not one, but TWO HBs in the 2nd round, one of which [Walker] became SB MVP.

    However, nearly every SB winning team didn’t PAY HBs much.

    Marshawn Lynch seems to be the only one even over 5% of the cap. Many of the others are good trivia questions: Damien Williams, Blount, CJ Anderson, Bradshaw, Starks, Thomas…Pacheco himself is a 7th rounder.

    So it appears the way to go for SB winners is to find bargain HBs who basically “over-perform” or – just stay healthy and effective.

    Makes one wonder if Poles is thinking the same when calculating Swift’s contract. It’s no secret Poles was eyeing a HB maybe as early as the 1st RD in last year’s draft.

    If Poles decides to stick with Swift for one more year, it won’t be catastrophic as the Bears did run well for most of the year, but seemed to struggle more late season. Who can forget all those failed short yard downs in the playoffs?

    SB Lesson 3. Health and TOs matter.

    Darnold had a good year, but his playoff-run wasn’t exactly Flaccoesque. SEA didn’t want to repeat the mistake the ’24 Vikings made with him down the stretch. It sure helped that he only really had to square-off against one other real QB [Stafford], and that ended up being a 4-point game. The 9ers were a MASH unit, and as such, got destroyed 41-6, while in the AFC the Donks’ season ended when Bo hurt his ankle.

    Meanwhile, Maye was such a TO machine that even Smoking Jay had to be like, “Woah, scro, tuck it every once in a while!”

    OT.

    Maybe Winter Olympics aren’t as boring as I imagined.

  • SEA Wins SB

    SEA Wins SB

    Got busy. I’ll have more thoughts on the game later.

  • Super Bowl LX

    Super Bowl LX

    I rememeber that ’18 NFL Draft when CLE selected Baker Mayfield #1 overall, the Jets selected Sam Darnold #3 overall, while the Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7 banking that he’d be another good ‘project’ like Carson Wentz for the Eagles [‘ 17 Wentz threw for 33TDs/7ints and 101.9 passer rating].

    Incidentally, the Bears drafted Roq at #8, Bills drafted Edmunds at #16, Panthers drafted DJ Moore at #24 and Hippy’s adopted son Chosen Rosen went #11 overall.

    I remember thinking at the time that both Mayfield and Darnold were ‘can’t miss.’
    I loved Mayfield’s mojo to turn around the factory of sadness. I thought Darnold’s steady demeanor and playing in L.A. [USC] suited him well for the intense NY market.

    Yet somehow, the Browns and Jets still broke them.

    I was a bit more on the fence about Josh Allen. Wentz recency bias made me think big physical ‘projects’ from small schools could work, but man, that’s a gamble [as the Eagles found out].

    I wasn’t too sold on Rosen. To me, he was sorta the JJ McCarthy of that draft. Meh.

    However, both Mayfield and Darnold “busting” really made me self-evaluate. How could I have been so wrong on both? I didn’t expect either to be sure-fire HOFers, but BUSTS?

    I mean one, yeah, stats say QBs are 50/50, but BOTH. Maybe draft picks are no better than taking a spin at the Roulette table.

    Well, as it turns out, both Mayfield and Darnold only needed to join functional teams.

    Then it hit me. I was wrong, but not in the way I imagined.

    I erred in believing in that the philosophy of “pick yourself up by your bootstrap” still applies to QBs. It obviously does NOT.

    Like much in life, surrounding greatly impacts results.

    This is an old debate: nature-v-nurture.

    But it’s not binary.

    Browns and Jets have been forever dysfunctional, and as Florio refrains, “dysfunctional teams do dysfunctional things” and this can be macro: owners, GMs, coaches, draft…to micro: developing players, ESP QBs.

    Being dysfunctional isn’t a death sentence either. The Bengals, Lions and Bears have also been a laughing stock for 40+ years, yet they seemed to have dug themselves out of the Browns/Jets 9th circle of hell.

    I was mistaken in assuming that a single individual, even a QB, can simply will himself to be an Ubermench regardless of circumstance.

    One might be tempted to retort, “Well, Brady and Mahomes would’ve been great no matter.” Really? What if the Chris Palmer Browns drafted Brady and the Pace-Nagy Bears drafted Mahomes?

    This works the other way as well.
    A successful organization doesn’t automatically generate HOF QBs like some GPT prompt.

    Reid in KC could only go so far with Alex Smith. The same Pats who won 6 SBs drafted Mac Jones. 9ers traded the house for Trey Lance.

    Oops!

    I suppose this is a long-winded way of stating the obvious:

    It takes both nature+nurture=success.

    The formula isn’t written in stone. Who knows about the ratio. 80% to 20% or vice versa.

    But USUALLY [outliers do exist] it is some ratio of both.

    This SB marks the first time two top 5 [drafted] QBs square-off. That’s a remarkable stat given the ENORMOUS amount of resources that go into finding a franchise QB.

    It illustrates how fickle the whole process really is, how maybe one seemingly minute factor could set off a whole butterfly effect.

    Terry Bradshaw’s life literally came down to a coin flip. Steelers won. They drafted Bradshaw, and after a disastrous start he rebounded to win 4 SBs.

    The Bears traded their #2 to the Green Bay Packers for veterans Lee Roy Caffey, Bob Hyland, and Elijah Pitts translating to squat.

    If Bears win coinflip and draft Bradshaw…well, you elder-fans tell me if it results in 4 SBs…

    Overtime:

    Butch’s SB pick.

    I think I’ve been right in every pick [except in Bears over Rams, but I can live with that].

    I think SEA’s D is simply too dominant to allow such a young QB (who’s been a playoff TO machine) to excel.

    When a D has a legit nickname [The Darkside], you know they’re good!

    There’s a risk that Darnold will Darnold, but thus far he really hasn’t [outside Rams]. If he starts seeing ghosts again, it’ll be one epic chokejob.

    On top of that, SEA has a great one-two punch at HB, plus a dangerous returner and solid specials with sound coaching.

    The Pats’ Dline is real, but how tight will the refs call this game? A lot of times they allow WAAAAY more holding [and PIs] than usual in the SB, which may mitigate the Pats’ biggest advantage.

    As such, I predict a slow, tight game, but with huge SEA momentum surges which will be too much for a relatively inexperienced Pats’ team.

    Darnold gets his ultimate vindication while the Queens are stuck with #9 watching the SB in a Cancun bar….

  • Uncle Rico Top Throws

    Uncle Rico Top Throws

    Came across “Best ’25 NFL Throws” judged by none other than Tom Terrific.

    Thought it was pretty cool.

    Edit. Apparently the NFL cracks down on even freaking Tom Brady, so just click here for vid.

    Here’s another YT clip discussing non-Crosby Edge options, which will likely be discussed ad nauseum, so may as well

    [Reports are that Crosby wants out of Vegas though he may want to play for Vrabel]

  • Ravens Hire Declan Doyle for OC

    Ravens Hire Declan Doyle for OC

    I don’t know how to feel about this. On one hand, I’m a little surprised that the Ravens are willing to turn over their Lamar Reclamation Project to a 29 yr old who is his same age. This is why they fired John Harbaugh? If Harbaugh didn’t have the cache to make Lamar a viable Playoff Winner, what are the chances some greenhorn with little experience and light resume will?

    OTOH, the NFL is all about fads and trends, and smart OCs get snapped up relatively quickly. I mean, even rumors swirled about Nagy getting another crack at HC – that’s how desperate the NFL is to find the next Shanny, McVay, Ben Johnson…

    At first when the Fins fired McDaniels, I was wondering if BJ would reach out to him through the backchannels. Two great offensive minds are better than one.

    However, too many cooks in the kitchen comes to mind, and BJ will likely opt for an up-n-comer not a made name. Preferably one who has a TE background as that seems to bode well for OCs.

    Technically, this seems like a lateral move, but let’s be honest. Doyle was “OC” only in title while on the Ravens he’ll run the show. I’m more pissed off about the end-a-round ATL/NFL did on Bears in the Ian Cunningham transaction.

    Anywho, via con dios, Doyle. We hardly knew you. And to quote the Godfather, ‘It’s best if your interests don’t conflict with ours.’



  • First NFL-ess Sunday ’26

    First NFL-ess Sunday ’26

    Well, at least our blood pressure will be better!

  • Falcons Headhunt Ian Cunningham

    Falcons Headhunt Ian Cunningham

    What makes it worse is that since Matt Ryan is “technically” the President of Football in ATL, Bears don’t get squat in compensation.

    This is some grade-a level BS. I hope someone at Halas has the balls to challenge the NFL on this.

    Remember, it was Ian Cunningham who on draft day held Ryan Poles back from trading UP for Rome Odunze, so if you already believed that Poles shoulda traded back to get more value [like moi], it was Ian who prevented an even bigger Poles’ debacle, so this aint’nothing.

    I suppose the brain-drain is the price of success. KC already lifted Eric Bieniemy to be their OC.

    Baltimore Ravens [and likely others]requested interview with Bears OC Declan Doyle.

    I have little doubt that Al Harris will soon become a DC, then HC.

    If Dennis Allen hadn’t already had two HC stints, he’d likely be a hot commodity as well.

    Dan Roushar [oline coach] may be going under the radar, but holy crap, he may be the best position coach on the Bears given the dramatic 1-yr Oline turnaround while making a UFDA Benedet, a rook Trapilo at LT look good; Rousher also gambled on Thuney at LT and Jordan McFadden at LG in the Divisional round and seemingly paying off. I’m a little surprised he’s not getting more buzz.

    Here’s a more in depth take on the move.

    OT.

  • Benny “The Jet” Urquidez

    Benny “The Jet” Urquidez

    I love martial arts! In some ways I wish I was enrolled in martial arts growing up as opposed to playing football, basketball, baseball, with naturally a side of skateboarding and BMXing. But hey, only so many hours in a kid’s day.

    Anyways, I watch a bunch of martial arts stuff – way too much Van Damme and figuring out if Steven Seagal is legit or a poseur!

    Anyways, Benny “The Jet” Urquidez most definitely is NOT a phony. Some of you older dudes may remember him, especially if you were one of those kids ordering martial arts magazines or into early Jackie Chan [Supposedly his fight in “Meal on Wheels with Benny is epic];you may know The Jet, but he was before my time, and only recently have I come across him. His feats and stories are insane!

    I think he racked up over 200 wins with zero losses. Cited as the creator of “Kick Boxing”. Actually fought in Hong Kong death matches. Got ice-picked in the ass in another street fight. He weighed about 140 going up against true heavy weights around 240 [this was before a lot of the weight classes, kinda like early UFC]. Starred in movies. And of course, still found time to teach.

    I don’t know how a movie about him isn’t made since he’s like real Frank Dux, and many [including Bruce Lee’s former students] believe his speed and power rivaled Lee’s.

    I know I’m missing out on a lot [like the Gracie controversy], but you can write 3 books on the Jet, and still not get everything in.

    So, here’s some stuff on him I came across:

    This is him older telling some stories, going over technique.

    This is the time he unwittingly fought in a Kumite match for a measly fur coat! Crazy stuff. Notice he never says if he actually killed his opponent! Moral of the story. Never agree to anything in Hong Kong!

    This is The Jet relaying the story of being one of the first to go against a Muay Thai fighter, “I didn’t even know what Muay Thai was. I thought that was his name…then he started elbowing me, and I was like, ‘ok, this is a street fight’. I didn’t know!”

    You can read the comments to get more of an idea about the man and his legacy; needless to say, he’s a real American bad ass.

  • Take. The. Points.

    Take. The. Points.

    Official. Pats-v-Seahawks SB.

    This was my projected outcome. I still predict SEA will win the whole thing. They seem like the most complete team: solid coaching; good QB [who is not currently choking]; unstoppable WR with 1-2 punch at HB; great D and specials; NFCW Battle tested [unlike Pats].


    Brett James@thebrettjames1
    ·10h
    Patriots path to a Super Bowl:

    Dolphins x2 (7-10)

    Panthers (8-9)

    Saints (6-11)

    Titans (3-14)

    Bills (12-5)

    Browns (5-12)

    Falcons (8-9)

    Buccaneers (8-9)

    Jets x2 (3-14)

    Bengals (6-11)

    Giants (4-13)

    Ravens (8-9)

    [Playoffs]Justin Herbert; CJ Stroud; Jarrett Stidham


    Dante Koplowitz-Fleming@DanteKopFlem
    ·10h
    Fewest points scored in the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship Games en route to a Super Bowl appearance:

    54 – 2025 Patriots [Maye]
    61 – 2000 Ravens [Dilfer]
    68 – 2007 Giants [Eli]


    This was Maye’s statline somewhere in the 2nd QTR vs Broncos:

    8/14 [57%], 46 yds, and 50 yds rushing, 1 TD. Maye is Fields!

    NFL Researcher@NFL_Researcher
    ·10h
    The Patriots have averaged 18.0 PPG this postseason, the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams (15.0).


    One seemingly underrated area though is the Pats’ Dline, especially the interior. They make life hard on both HB and QB, which allows Maye to effectively game manage and scramble on pivotal downs.


    Butch’s overall ’26 playoff impression.

    Collinsworth, of all ppl, perhaps summed it up best:

    “These games more often than not are lost not won.”

    BJ, Payton, McVay, all good, all offensive minded, all aggressive, all ‘analytic driven’…watching SB from home just like the rest of us.

    Why?

    Because they all passed up on gimme 3 points that could’ve absolutely turned the tide.

    BJ’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that 4rth down magic Caleb TD doesn’t send the game to OT [where Bears lose], rather sends them to the next round vs SEA who looked much more beatable than I surmised.

    Payton’s missing 3 points? I mean, Jesus, he’s playing with a backup QB who had ZERO live snaps in a game that ended 10-7. No, he couldn’t have guessed the 2nd half would turn into a blizzard, but that’s why you TAKE. THE. POINTS.

    McVay’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that final drive just needed to get into FG range as opposed to needing a TD with no TOs and under a minute left. Much more doable since the Rams were moving the ball well all game.

    Time mismanagement also plagued the losing HCs.

    Payton was aggressive before the half which quickly gave back the ball to Pats [with 3 TOs] who then scored what ultimately became the game-deciding TD.

    McVay had zero TOs left by the end making it nigh impossible to drive the field and score a game winning TD.

    Meanwhile, their ‘defensive’ counterparts in Vrabel and McDonald mostly called it more ‘conservatively’. [One may argue, more ‘logically’ given their victories.] Does Vrabel or McDonald call that Caleb-to-DJ killshot in OT that was INTed? Or do they simply keep handing it off for another 10-12 yards with an O that was driving? Think we know the answer, and that is why they’re in the SB.

    Vrabel, like McVay, did go for it on 4rth, but it was 4rth and inches as opposed to 4rth and 1-2 yds, and even then it nearly ended in disaster. Honestly, it looked short to me live.

    Playing ‘to win the game’ resulted in losses.

    When one thinks of Genghis Khan likely images of a marauding wild general come to mind; however, many of his victories derived from relying on his enemies’ rashness to chase his ‘fleeing nomads’. Little did the cocky suckers realize it was a feigned retreat leading to slaughter.

    Now fast forward to Hitler dogmatically sticking to the philosophy of Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg! Or alternatively, ordering his generals to hold positions to the death when a tactical retreat would’ve been optimal.

    Hope Ben Johnson takes this lesson to heart:

    a great general knows when to blitzkrieg, when to feint, and when to TAKE THE FUCKING POINTS.

  • NFL ’25 Conference Thread

    NFL ’25 Conference Thread

    McVay’s face after the Caleb Williams TD throw.

    Well, I think I was correct 3/4 teams last week, and for many of the reasons I illustrated [take a wild guess which one I got wrong!]

    This week seems a bit anticlimactic. I suppose that’s why many argue that Championship Week is the best week of the NFL.

    Two reasons for this is that Pats are going to face off against Broncos’ backup QB Jarrett Stidham.

    Some [including the man himself] are pointing to Foles as a precedent; however, Foles didn’t just get thrown into the Conference Championship.

    Others say, “Hey, Dilfer won it!” but again, at least he started in 8 games, and unless this Broncos’ D can hold the Pats to 13 and under, not much of blueprint.

    If Broncos actually pull off the upset, Sean Payton should win COY unanimously.

    2nd reason? The later game of Rams@Seahawks might resemble 9er@Seahawks from the previous week. The Seahawks’ D is steamrolling Os, and this protects them from Darnold Darnolding.

    Their Specials ain’t shabby either.

    In fact, they kinda remind me of the 2006 Bears-lite in that way; except they’re healthy, and don’t have Lovie as HC.

    So my prediction: Pats-v-Seahawks SB.

    The Evil Empire is back.