Da Dos

Category: NFL, Bears, Twitter, YouTube, GIF

  • Mathing Bears Getting Screwed

    Mathing Bears Getting Screwed

    Let’s begin this story where many stories start; somebody posted some shit on Twitter. Specifically, Warren Sharp stirred it up with this: 

    Now, if you chum the waters from the back of the Orca, sometimes you’re gonna need a bigger boat. Sometimes sharks appear. So let’s be a Great White, shall we, and take a big bite out of this. Because it started to get legs with this Tanis lady picking that ball up and running with it. 

    Tanis goes on to say, “Either the Bears have the worst luck in the history of history, or the NFL is going out of their way to screw over the bears (which seems most likely seeing how they were not awarded the comp picks when Cunningham was hired by ATL). Every team thinks the refs are screwing their team over. However there are stats that show it’s actually happening to the Bears. On a yearly basis. And you can’t say it’s coaching/play calling, bc there have been two (technically three) different head coaches for the bears in the last 4 years. “

    Can you leave that alone? I decided not to. Bears Tax. It’s all that the regs on DBB and DBB2 ever talked about for years, how the NFL hates Chicago and how the Packers get their ring rimmed constantly, esp. in the 4th Q when the fix is sent in on carrier pigeon by Goodell himself. I mean, seriously, fuck that guy. FTP. All of it. 

    So, let’s preface first. There was a DBB reg named Data. Or that’s what we called him. Nice guy, Jeff at DBB used to let him guest post. He used to post “statistics” as conversation starters, and that was all well and good. His idea of statistics was to open up Excel and make a pivot table, and punch some information in, then draw a conclusion from said information, and the debate was on the way. Nice guy. It had no bearing on actual stats, but it was pat on the head nice. I offered to help him with actual statistical analysis, but he shooed me away (politely) and said that he was quite happy in his life doing his tables and drawing his conclusions, and not to mess with his Wizard of Oz magical ways. So, I did not. 

    But a Bears tax won’t be served by a pivot table. We need stats from Yahoo and we need to tranquilize this Lion and open it’s mouth and check it’s teeth. So, in case you were wondering, we shall now engage in ACTUAL STATISTICS.

    GP calculating tip at restaurant for four separate parties

    Our postulation: the NFL or given crews have it out for the Chicago Bears. That a Bears Tax exists, or are these just journalists who are bad at stats doing what the Twatter was made for: stirring the pot. Getting a big wooden spoon and swirling the shit until the scent attracts real sharks. Let’s take a bite of that swordfish on the line being towed. As Khan himself said, Sharp tasks me! He tasks me, and I shall have him!

    Step 1- Summary Stat

    Bears total beneficiary yards (2022-25)

    = 652 + 530 + 794 + 748 = 2,724
    Bears total games = 17 + 17 + 17 + 19 = 70
    Bears yds/game (x_CHI)= 2,724 / 70 = 38.9143

    Step 2 – We need a cross-team reference distribution, For each of the 32 teams I computed cumulative yds/game (total beneficiary yds ÷ total games over the four seasons). What do we see?

    Unweighted mean   x̄ = (1/n) Σ x_i = 1557.0305 / 32  = 48.6572
    Weighted mean     μ_w = ΣY / ΣG = 110,739 / 2,278 = 48.6124
    SS deviations     Σ(x_i – x̄)² = 481.9894
    Sample variance   s² = SS / (n-1)  = 481.9894 / 31 = 15.5480
    Sample SD         s  = √15.5480 = 3.9431

    The two means differ by 0.04 because teams have different game counts (playoff teams play more). 
    Use the unweighted x̄ as the location parameter for the cross-team distribution since the SD is also computed across teams.

    Step 3 – Z-Score
    z = (x_CHI – x̄) / s = (38.9143 – 48.6572) / 3.9431 = -2.4709
    Step 4 – P-values

    Bears weren’t pre-specified. We’re picking them because they’re the outlier. Correcting for 32 teams (i.e., asking “what’s P[some team this extreme]”):

    P(any team z ≤ -2.47) = 1 – (1 – 0.006739)^32     = 0.1946    ≈ 1 in 5
    Bonferroni upper bound = 32 × 0.006739            = 0.2157


    Step 5 – Cumulative deficit interpretation.

    Expected Bears yds at league rate
    = 70 × 48.6124  = 3,402.87
    Actual Bears yds = 2,724
    Deficit = 678.87 yds over 4 seasons
                                          = ~170 yds/season
                                          = ~10 yds/game

    Step 6 – What is this test rejecting?

    The cross-team SD of 3.94 includes both sampling noise and legitimate between-team variation (scheme, pace, QB style). So z = -2.47 against this SD says: “the Bears are far below where teams typically end up, including the noise of 70 games and the spread of 32 different football operations.” Rejecting at p = 0.007 means rejecting “all 32 teams have identical underlying penalty-drawing rates” — a null that was already false on inspection (Minnesota at 57.7, Bears at 38.9, both with 70 games). 

    It does not mean rejecting “no anti-Chicago referee bias.” So we must continue forward.

    A more aggressive test using only sampling variance (treating per-game yds as iid within each team and ignoring between-team scheme effects) would give a smaller p, but the inferential gap to “bias” gets wider, not narrower, because more of the variance gets attributed to legitimate team differences.

    Now we need a Bayesian wrapper on this: P(bias | data) = P(data | bias) × P(bias) / P(data)
                  = P(data | bias) × P(bias) / [P(data|bias)P(bias) + P(data|¬bias)P(¬bias)]

    If your prior P(systematic anti-Chicago bias) is 5%, and you generously assume P(z ≤ -2.47 | bias) = 0.50 vs. P(z ≤ -2.47 | no bias) = 0.195 (the look-elsewhere baseline — under “no bias” we still expect some team to be the outlier ~1 year in 5):
    Posterior = (0.50 × 0.05) / (0.50 × 0.05 + 0.195 × 0.95)
              = 0.025 / 0.21025
              = 0.119

    So the data moves the bias hypothesis from a 5% prior to ~12% posterior. Real movement, but nothing close to “proven.” 

    The data is moderately suggestive, not damning, and the dominant alternative explanation — that the Bears have run an anemic offense for most of this window and bad offenses don’t draw flags — costs nothing extra in plausibility.

    Oh GP, you fucker, you say, sure… Jussie was a shitbird and could not run an offense. Eberflus was so ill-regarded that other teams could see into their setups and adjust. Floose running the Cowboys D in such an inept manner showed his scheme just didn’t get breaks. But what about Caleb? What about BJ? That Tanis broad, she was on it, was she not? She points out that the Bears tax runs between regimes! Ha ha! Checkmate! Take your math and shove it you Grey Poupon eating pretentious math ass!

    Well… hold on there Cowboy. 

    2025 only: League mean 50.47 yds/g, SD 6.83, Bears 39.37. Bears z = −1.63, one-sided p = 0.052, look-elsewhere p = 0.82. So the single season isn’t statistically remarkable — the Bears were lowest, but only by 0.68 yds/g over Buffalo. What makes 2025 important isn’t the single-season significance; it’s that it removes the easiest counter-narrative.

    The asymmetry signal in 2025 is the cleaner one:

    Against/g    Benef/g    Net/g
    Bears             52.58      39.37    -13.21
    Buffalo           50.26      40.05    -10.21
    Denver          61.79      48.21    -13.58
    Detroit         42.24      41.24     -1.00
    SF                36.95      41.42     +4.47
    LA Rams       34.55      51.55    +17.00

    Yahoo has the 2025 Bears 6th in total yds/g (379.2) and 9th in PPG (25.9). I’ll grant top-10. Caleb’s 388 rushing yards is good-not-elite (Lamar’s typically 700–900) but the scramble-draws-flags mechanism is real. And the Bears threw 574 pass attempts — lots of dropbacks where DPI/holding could be called. So you’ve largely killed the “low pace / low pass volume” version of the alternative. What survives:

    1. Scheme-specific: Ben Johnson’s offense is precise and quick-throw oriented — fewer extended plays, fewer deep shots, fewer of the situations that draw DPI and defensive holding. Detroit ran a similar offense and was 3rd lowest in 2025.
    2. Sack rate: Bears took 24 sacks, well below average. Lower QB-hit volume = fewer roughing-the-passer chances. The Caleb-doesn’t-get-hit story works partly against the scramble-draws-flags story.
    3. Pure noise on a one-season sample.Sorry but that’s what it is. 

    Tanis and her 2025 evidence kills the strongest version of the boring alternative (“Bears suck offensively, of course they don’t draw flags “). It does NOT kill the scheme-and-style version, and the look-elsewhere correction still applies to the cumulative case. If I redo the Bayes with prior 5%, P(data|bias) = 0.50, and revise P(data|no bias) down from 0.195 to maybe 0.12 (since the boring alternative is partly defanged):

    Posterior = (0.50 × 0.05) / (0.50 × 0.05 + 0.12 × 0.95) = 0.180

    You’re at ~18% posterior on bias. That’s three-and-a-half times the prior, but it’s still a minority position. The data is suggestive. To push it toward damning, the test you’d want is referee-crew breakdown — if the Bears’ deficit holds across all 17 crews, that’s hard to explain without bias; if it concentrates in three of them, you’ve got something more specific and frankly more interesting than “the league hates Chicago.” So, that is the rabbit hole we must go down in a future article. As Hippy likes  to say, “where the fuck do you find this stuff?”

    Per-game data with referee crews — pulled from the team-by-game pages:

    These give every Bears game with the date, opponent, ref crew, count, yards — both for penalties against the Bears and for penalties against their opponents. 

    So, for article 1 I have tried to show that Jussie + Floose just made for bad years, and I cannot suss out a systemic bias from the data. No way some journos without a quant background can do it. Easier to chum the water than reel the shark in, isn’t it? It took a scuba tank and Quint’s old M1 Garand to finish that monster off. If you are gonna get out there in public and declare a Bears tax exists, then extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. And so we shall venture forth looking for Part 2 Hypothesis, which we shall call the Billy Butcher hypothesis, being:  “yeah, ok, but I bet some ref crews are rite cunts!”  Onward we go.

    Bear fans fighting refs every Sunday
  • Owner’s Meeting

    Owner’s Meeting

    I don’t know what really goes on at the owner’s meetings. Sometimes it feels like the NFL just likes filler; however, Cronin and other beat reporters did get some nuggets.

    Courtney Cronin@CourtneyRCronin
    ·Mar 30

    Some takeaways from Ben Johnson’s 30-minute session at the NFC coaches breakfast
    -Said he found out about Drew Dalman’s decision to retire in mid-February. Team quickly pivoted to Garrett Bradbury, who they believe “will fit us like a glove”
    -Johnson on left tackle: “There’s a lot of uncertainty there.” Said he’s not sure the Bears will have Ozzy Trapilo during the 2026 season after Trapilo suffered a “pretty serious injury” with his ruptured patellar tendon.” Johnson said it’s hard to say what the Bears left tackle position will look like this year or in five years.
    -Braxton Jones is up to 310 pounds and looked “yolked” when Johnson saw him come in to sign his contract during free agency. Said Jones is eager to get his career trajectory back on track.
    -Johnson isn’t happy with the offensive staff for how they didn’t coach WRs to get open enough. Emphasized getting back to fundamentals in OTAs on catching the ball to address drop issues.

    [This makes me wonder about Rome sticking. I feel like BJ covets quick-twitch athletes like Burden and Loveland – players who can separate with short area burst. That’s not Rome. Johnson also brought up how Rome and others must do better on scramble drills. Bears were 3rd worst in drops, and 1st worst in dropped yardage.]


    -Johnson and the Bears staff recently turned on the tape from Family Fest at Soldier Field in early August 2025 (the really sloppy practice that featured a bunch of delay of game penalties) to see where they were starting camp last year and how much further ahead they want to be in OTAs with the offense.
    -New OC Press Taylor (formerly the passing game coordinator) is “the most organized coach I’ve ever been around” per Johnson. Noted his “library of plays” for how to beat different defenses and how he organizes information as a benefit to Johnson in Taylor’s new role.
    -Johnson said coaches will be “hyper vigilant” to any complacency and entitlement after the success of last season. While he was happy to hear from fans/supporters “for about a week” about how exciting the 2025 season was, he said he doesn’t want to hear anymore about how good the Bears were as they have moved on to 2026.
    -New safety Coby Bryant wowed Johnson with a ‘holy cow, it-factor’ in terms of his leadership. Will be a critical piece to replace the leadership void created by Kevin Byard’s departure.
    -Johnson noted how “challenging” it was to form relationships with Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon last year given how both missed significant time with injuries. “We’re starting over completely this spring” with their relationships so he has a better chance to get to know these players.

    Don’t be shocked if Ben Johnson wants a LT at #25. Ryan Poles was front and center for the Bama proday and apparently met with Kadyn Proctor — a 6-foot-7, 352-pound offensive tackle

    Bearsszn@bearszn
    ·
    Bears GM Ryan Poles says the team will stay disciplined with their “best player available” draft philosophy even if that means drafting offense over defense:

    “You look at the draft, when I’ve been here, we’ve taken the right mentality and taken the best available. That’s been very offensive centric and I think that’s paid off for us. We got an All-Pro tackle (Darnell Wright) and Colston’s going to be All-Pro tight end. So, we’ve done some really good things there. It just hasn’t lined up to be defensive line…..I think the biggest mistake you can make is forcing something just because that’s what you need.”

    via@HogeAndJahns

  • Audentes fortuna iuvat

    Audentes fortuna iuvat

    Growing up is confusing enough, but it’s even more of a clusterfuck when you get contradictory advice. We often rely on folksy sayings, time proven proverbs and maxims especially when one doesn’t have a dad [like me]. You can probably finish these:

    “Bird in the hand…”, “Devil finds work…”, “A penny saved…”All work and no play…”

    “Measure twice cut once” – Lincoln.

    One of my faves.

    But sometimes you get conflicting proverbs:

    “He who hesitates loses.”
    “Look before you leap.”

    OK. So which is it? Well, both are in/correct aren’t they? Plenty of evidence for either cases. One learns in life that, unlike football, no playbook exists, so you gotta decide, often in a split second, which to roll with.

    Aristotle said as much. “You can’t make someone wise.” Seems like the last case a philosopher should write, but that’s essentially what he expressed. He advocated The Golden Mean: Making the right decision involves acting at the right time, towards the right people, for the right purpose, and in the right way.

    Student, “Follow up question, Prof A… how do we discern that?”

    Aristotle, “Ultimately, that’s up to YOU.”

    In other words, “You can lead a horse to water…”

    In literature [and now films] the ‘hero’ is often presented with a choice:

    1. Stay home. Think about your family, safety and happiness. A woman usually presents this case [think Adrian in “Rocky IV” – “You can’t win!”].
    2. Take a chance. Set off! Sometimes an elderly ‘wise’ man spurs this on like Obi Wan to Luke or guides the neophyte [up to a point] like Virgil in Dante’s “Paradise Lost”.

    “Call to adventure“. It’s a Jungian trope that is in nearly every movie.

    What the hell are you babbling on about, Butch? Gimme football!

    Well young grass-hoppa, this IS about football, the Bears and Poles.

    See, Poles thus far has acted prudently. He hasn’t splurged like the Raiders or leveraged the Bears’ future, but he also hasn’t been completely frigid in FA like the Puke during the Rodgers-Favre era.

    Poles has taken the middle road. When his Nissan broke down, he didn’t hit the German dealership. He took a bus to his local Carmax and purchased a newer Camry.

    Now, that could work. Maybe he’s saving his pennies for some secret target we’re not privy to. Or maybe Booker suddenly turns into Richard Dent, or Benedet’s arms grow 2 inches, or Motivated Dayo Mack-Attacks the league…I suppose anything’s possible. It certainly appears Poles is banking on prior bets to finally pay.

    This all leaves us sorta…meh, right?

    Maybe lit and flicks have conditioned us so thoroughly that we no longer can sit on our hands; spectators get fidgety . We WANT Achilles to go to Troy. We WANT Rocky to fight Drago. We WANT Luke to fly to the stars.

    We WANT a Crosby, Garrett, or Hendrickson.

    Now, going bold doesn’t always work out. If “Grinder” represents the extreme of caution, “Worm” represents the other spectrum of recklessness.

    Jerry “Glitchy” Angelo went bold and signed Cutler.

    Ryan Pace went bold and gave up the kitchen sink for Mack.

    We all remember the Herschel Walker Trade and the Ditka-Ricky Williams marriage. Heck, The Commandos’ MO basically the last 40 years has been to Albert Haynesworth it.

    Still, at SOME point, you gotta take your shot.

    A GM certainly can’t be “Worm”, but being “Grinder” is death by a thousand papercuts.

    Whether it’s literature, movies, or life, a person rarely achieves anything staying on the couch.

    “Well-behaved women seldom make history.” – Laurel Thatcher Ulrich

    Perhaps the most frustrating part for fans is that we MUST trust Poles’ to ‘decide on the right player, in the right way, at the right time.’ Like lowly peasants, we have no choice but to back whatever king is on the throne, whether he be just, dumb or mad. Still, that’s a TALL ask given Poles’ history. Patience is thinning especially for one who believes this team can truly push for a SB.

    So, remember, Poles.

    “Fortune favors the bold.”

  • ’26 Bears Worse?

    ’26 Bears Worse?

    It’s a shame the old reg Buttonshoes didn’t make it over here. While everyone thought he was a bitter cynic and unshakable pessimist, he wasn’t really wrong. Didn’t make him the most popular guy in a blogasphere full of homers, but he was mostly correct about Lovie, Emery, Trestman, Sweaty Teddy, and his #1 enemy whom he hated with the heat of a thousand supernovas – the McCaskeys.

    So, in his honor, let’s take the skeptical tour of Ryan Poles’ FA

    The Bears are a WORSE team now post-FA ’26.

    Why? Glad you asked.
    Brisker is gone. His backup [coming off INJ] is now the starter.
    Wright is gone. Stevenson, who was benched for Wright, is now CB2.
    Trapilo is down [for who knows how long]. TWO benched backups [in Benedet and Braxton] are now going to fight to be the starter.

    That’s 3 backups now starting.

    Byard, while old, is likely still better than Cobe Bryant. Byard lead the league in INTs with 7. That’s BETTER than ‘lockdown’ CBs like Jayce Horn [Second with 5].To put that in perspective, Mike Brown in that magical 2000 season racked up 5 INTs. Byard also never missed games; however, Bryant is no chump. He had 5 INTs last season, and is a versatile, smart, aggressive leader on a SB winning team. So, let’s be generous and call it a wash.

    Nickel CB will be Mr. Glass, I mean, Spider-Man Gordon, but common.

    We all know he’s going to miss half the season. Last year Bears signed CJ Gardner Johnson off the street, and he delivered. It could be argued he saved 2 games. In 10 games he had 2 INTs, 1 FF, 3 sacks, 5 QB hits, and 51 tackles. Not shabby. Like Wright, he struggled mightily in coverage, but will CJ’s replacement [Cam Lewis] impact wins like him?

    On offense, I give Poles a slight pass. I don’t know if Dalman‘s retirement shocked him like us, but isn’t vetting in the job description of an NFL GM? Maybe that’s why other GMs passed on Dalman.

    Trapilo getting INJed late season was another kick in the nads out of Poles’ control.

    Nonetheless, results in the same. LT and C now are downgraded with Benedet and Bradbury. How do I know this? Because on Earth 2 Trapilo and Dalman are returning healthy and willing.

    Both Edwards and Dayo [motivated or not] are coming off INJ-plagued ’25 campaigns. Unfortunately, they’re also “starters.”

    Last yr WR1-DJ; WR2-Rome; WR3-Burden

    This year Rome [who drops at least 2 per game and is terrible at the one thing he was drafted for – contested catches] is WR1, while our WR3 is Kalif Raymond; no matter how optimistic you are, you can’t convince me that Raymond is a superior WR3 than Burden. Of course, one can argue that All Day Jadhae is the WR3, but hey, he was our WR4 last year.

    Bears’ TE3 also moved on, FWIW.

    Bears’ Dline 31st in Pass Rush Win Rate%
    – Rush D: 27th
    – Sacks: 22nd [35 overall]

    And that exact same Dline of Dayo-Dexter-Jarrett-Sweat returns, only older, battered and INJed! What can go wrong…

    49ers whooping the Bears

    Another little talked about ’26 FA factor to consider which I’m sure ButtonShoes would love.

    The fact that the McCaskeys, on top of being imbeciles, are cash poor in an existential stadium struggle which may sap their NFL mojo. Our old friend Data asserts as much, and he’s not alone.

    The LCD retort

    Well, if Buttonshoes was the eternal pessimist, his yang was the eternal [Bears] optimist LCD. He was so optimistic, he even truly pushed that the Bears should build around Fields and pass on Caleb!

    #DaHaul

    A lesson for all, but I digress…

    An optimist would spin it like this.

    Poles isn’t so much cooking as simmering. He’s getting everything prepped and marinated, not over committing two 1sts for Crosby, or $100M to Hendrickson – heck, not even a measly 3rd for DT Osa Odighizuwa.

    Slow and steady, like the turtle.

    Jarrett was INJed last year, performing better towards the end. Sweat is durable. Posted 10 sacks. Dexter great penetrator [that’s what she said], while Dayo can’t be worse, and Booker still filling out.

    Bryant, Bush, Jackson, et al are young, hungry and fast. Most importantly, they’re BJ-Allen guys. More we Flush the Fluseez, the better.

    Poles may have sucked ballz with Eberflus, but with BJ, they drafted fantastically, often rated as an “A” or “A+” selecting Loveland, Burden, Trapilo and Monangai.

    Bears own 4 picks in top 90. If they draft as well in ’26 on Defense, holy smokes, that’ll go a long way while saving cap for possible trade-deadline studs.

    NTM that this new regime has proven it can basically coach up anyone – Wright, CJGJ, Jackson, Trapilo, Monangai…so while the new crew on paper may not seem as sexy, CJ/Allen/Harris/Roushar will max their potential.

    By nature, I’m not a ‘hot take’ kinda guy. I’m more akin to The Dude, and he always abides.

    So, I’m not going to sit here and waste psychical energy morphing into either ButtonShoes or LCD. In my younger days, I actually cared about being right, and not just being right, but proving it to the unconverted.

    Now? Well, maybe my zeal’s flaccid, but “winning” and bathing in TigerBlood about relatively trivial minutia barely moves my pulse.

    For all we know, Caleb tears his ACL in August, or Myles Garrett finally forces his way out in October and Poles swings a deal – in either case, all this March Madness and angst turns moot.

    For now the only thing I certainly know is that our Dline MUST improve, but at the same time, BJ/Caleb will likely take it up another notch.


    ButtonShoes/LCD, Sith/Jedi, Ying/Yang. This is the way…

  • FA Thurs ’26

    FA Thurs ’26

    Bears’ new free-agent signings

    S Coby Bryant
    LB Devin Bush
    C Garrett Bradbury (’27 5th RDer)
    DT Neville Gallimore
    WR Kalif Raymond
    DB Cam Lewis
    DE Kentavius Street
    OT Jedrick Wills Jr.

    Bears who re-signed
    LT Braxton Jones
    QB Case Keenum
    LB D’Marco Jackson
    S Elijah Hicks
    DE Daniel Hardy

    Former Bears who signed elsewhere
    S Kevin Byard (signed with Patriots)
    CB Nahshon Wright (signed with Jets)
    LB Tremaine Edmunds (signed with Giants)
    WR Olamide Zaccheaus (signed with Falcons)
    DE Dominique Robinson (signed with Texans)
    DT Chris Williams (signed with Falcons)
    TE Durham Smythe (signed with Ravens)

    Bears’ free agents who remain unsigned
    DE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Void)
    OL Ryan Bates (Void)
    DT Andrew Billings (UFA)
    LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (UFA) (released by Bears)
    S Jonathan Owens (UFA)
    S Jaquan Brisker (UFA)
    RB Travis Homer (UFA)
    CB Nick McCloud (UFA)
    LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (UFA)
    CB Jaylon Jones (UFA)
    LS Scott Daly (UFA)
    WR Devin Duvernay (UFA)
    S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (UFA)
    OL Jordan McFadden (RFA)
    LB Ty Summers (SFA)
    C Ricky Stromberg (SFA)

    Trust in Poles? For those who want to keep picks to draft the next Richard Dent…

    TW@Tylow237
    ·
    Sweat- 2nd rd pick traded; 4 years $98M

    Dayo- 3 years $48M

    Grady- 3 years $43.5M

    Dexter- 2nd rd pick

    Shemar- 2nd rd pick

    That’s three 2nd rd picks and $189.5M invested only to be the worst DL in the NFL. Well done, Ryan Poles!

    Free agent Defensive Lineman signed by Poles so far

    • Grady Jarrett
    • Dayo Odeyingbo
    • Yannick Ngakoue
    • Justin Jones
    • Andrew Billings
    • Al Quadin-Muhammad
    • Kentavious Street
    • Neville Gallimore

    At some point he needs to invest heavily in the trenches [Poles has invested, just badly]

    Hey, apparently, Dayo don’t care about sacks, pressures, TFLs, FFs, fumble recoveries, INTs, tipped passes, strips, tackles, stats, staying healthy, or any of your vein honors. He is now Motivated Dayo!

    Best DL options remaining for the #Bears:

    Free agency

    Cam Jordan
    Joey Bosa
    D.J. Wonnum
    D.J. Reader

    Trades

    Maxx Crosby
    Jonathan Greenard
    Kayvon Thibodeaux
    Josh Sweat
    Myles Garrett (?)

    OT:

  • #2ues Tampering

    #2ues Tampering

    Bears Nation@BearsNationCHI
    ·7h
    Free agent update:

    LB D’Marco Jackson re-signed 2 years $7.5 million
    S Coby Bryant signed 3 years $40 million
    DT Neville Gallimore signed 2 years $12 million
    LB Devin Bush signed 3 years $30 million ($21 million guaranteed)
    QB Case Keenum signed 2 years $5.5 million with a max value of $8 million
    OT Braxton Jones signed 1 year $10 million $ DE D Hardy 2 years $5 million

    Departures
    WR OZ – Falcons
    DE D Robinson – Texans
    LB T Edmunds – Giants
    WR DJ Moore – Bills

    QB Bagent – Likely
    SS Brisker – ???

    Bears’ Cap [OTC]: $13, 646, 445

    Total FA Spending by Team after Day 1 #Titans $283M

    #Raiders $281.5M

    #Panthers $172.5M

    #Commanders $147M

    #Colts $134M

    #Saints $132.5M

    #Giants $127.5M

    #Bengals $100M

    #Jets $82.5M

    #Chiefs $76M

    #Cardinals $75M

    #Seahawks $75M

    #Bears $68M

    #Dolphins $67.5M #Browns $66.5M #Chargers $65.3M #Buccaneers $61M #49ers $51.5M #Rams $51M #Patriots $48.5M #Steelers $46M #Falcons $39.5M #Broncos $35M #Cowboys $33M #Ravens $30M #Texans $29M #Lions $25M #Bills $20M #Vikings $8.5M #Jaguars TBA #Packers $0 #Eagles $0

    Top remaining FAs:

    Ari Meirov@MySportsUpdate

    DE Trey Hendrickson
    CB Tariq Woolen
    OT Rasheed Walker
    TE Chig Okonkwo
    WR Romeo Doubs
    S Kevin Byard
    CB Nahshon Wright
    DE K’Lavon Chaisson
    G Alijah Vera-Tucker
    G Chris Paul
    QB Kyler Murray
    OLB Bradley Chubb
    OT Taylor Decker
    OT Braden Smith
    G Elgton Jenkins
    WR Calvin Austin III
    WR Deebo Samuel
    WR Jauan Jennings
    G Wyatt Teller
    S Jaquan Brisker
    LB Kaden Elliss
    LB Leo Chenal
    TE Dallas Goedert
    TE David Njoku
    DT D.J. Reader
    RB Rachaad White

  • Untampering Weekend

    Untampering Weekend

    Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Jeff Haynes/AP

    NFL free agency unofficially opens at noon ET on March 9 [MON] with the negotiation window (when players can agree to terms); it officially opens at 4 p.m. ET on March 11 ( WEDs when players can actually be signed).

    Top 50 FAs

    I wanted Crosby initially; however, Dalman’s shocking retirement has changed my mind. Bears now have significant question marks at:

    SS [Brisker gone], C [Dalman gone], LT [Trapilo achilles], DE [Dayo achilles/suckage], DT [only two on roster as of this weekend], LB [Edmunds gone, Edwards old, HippoWho?]

    Thuney isn’t getting any younger; plus, this assumes Poles will resign an older Byard, and that the 3rd WR [DJ Moore gone] won’t be Velus Jones.

    In other words – a rebuild – or retweak.

    This isn’t quite “Apollo 13” where shit is at critical. This is more akin to “The Martian” where Poles [with major help from Ground Control Ben Johnson] must problem solve on the fly.


    Bears are in an odd spot. They absolutely overachieved in a magical ’25 season which may distort the real talent and depth of the team.

    It SEEMS [still TBD, btw] that the Bears nailed the two most vital components of sustained success: HC, QB

    [the 3rd part is GM, but let’s not digress, ahem].

    HC/QB can go a LONG way – mask many deficiencies and mistakes [see, 2000s Pats].

    Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams are the foundation. They offer a floor that is higher than Lovie/Grossman.

    The Oline is [or was] the strength of this team. A top 5 unit by most objective metrics.

    So one could make a valid case for attaining a premium LT+C in FA.

    The top 2 for the Bears should be recently released LT Taylor Decker [former Lion] on hopefully a short 1-2 yr deal ’til we know WTF is left of Trapilo

    Also C Linderbaum [former Raven], though many predict he’s asking for north of $22M/yr.

    I could see Poles paying Decker, and sticking to a cheaper option at C. He did draft Luke Newman after all; albeit that doesn’t automatically make him viable [cough- Kiran, Hippo, Velus- cough].

    Poles will now have to do what many great GMs [Grandmasters] must:

    Sacrifice lesser pieces to win.

    The proven formula is to build the lines, but does that mean paying a C like a player who scores TDs? NO.

    OTOH, one of the first things Poles did with BJ was sign Dalman, so it could be that BJ values C much more since his O lines up under C at a higher % than say the shotgun-happy Cards.

    IMO that unexpected $10M+ Dalman windfall should funnel to DE.

    LTs typically get paid, so I’d have no issue with a short-term Decker deal because the alternative is Parsons/Hutchinson/Turner-v-Benedet twice this year.

    Personally, I’d much rather the Bears pay for LT, and DE.

    Hendrickson is older and less effective vs run than Crosby, but he won’t cost draft picks.

    Between him, Booker, and whatever Dayo can muster on one Achilles, should improve Bears’ D while keeping that #25 for any number of long term solutions at DT, DE, LT, C, S.

    The other option is Poles opting for blue-bin specials.

    If Poles decides to skip on day 1 splashes, players such as these could be solid additions:

    Edge Jaelen Phillips

    DE Rashan Gary [only 28]

    Edge Mack

    Edge Cam Jordan [Allen connection]

    DT Rankins [Allen connection]

    LB Demario Davis [Allen…]

    C McGovern

    DT Jonathan Allen…

    Chicago Bears Network@bearsnetwork_
    LB Alex Anzalone is a name to watch for the Bears in free agency, per Jeremy Fowler.

    Anzalone was with Dennis Allen in New Orleans.

    (via @CHGO_Bears)

    Going into the weekend, no doubt a slew of players will get released, traded, or retire than the current list, so definitely a time to refresh news’ feed. Should be exciting for us Bear fans!

    TLDR Butch Moves.

    Pay DE Hendrickson
    Pay LT Decker
    Pay DT Rankins/Allen
    Prolly go cheap at C, draft
    Prolly go cheap at SS, draft
    Trade Bagency, get athletic project
    Try to trade Kyler Gordon, NB draft
    Maybe rework/trade Kmet
    Resign Byard and Demarco Jackson
    Maaaybe see what we can get for CB Jaylon Johnson.

    Time to totally remake roster in Ben Johnson image.


    Update:

    Gary Ross@gaross18-7h
    Courtney Cronin was on ESPN1000 this morning & said that she expects the Bears to get the comp picks for Cunningham. That would be HUGE!

  • Butch Take on Moving

    Butch Take on Moving

    Martin O’Neill/Getty Images

    GP thoroughly and meticulously dissected Bears possibly moving to Hammond, IN. I specifically wanted his angle since he’s a native Bears’ fan with a finance background; he did not disappoint. Fantastic piece.

    Now, I offer a somewhat more micro-take from what I coin “The Bears’ Diaspora.”

    All my life I’ve always been an outsider. This is not atypical for a person who moves around a lot. Being the new kid in the city, in the classroom, where you can almost feel the murmurs and looks…let’s just say it leaves a lasting impression.

    But it wasn’t just the moving. Even as a kid I never really felt comfortable around other kids. My inner voice would often say, “Well, that’s a bad idea” as my body would follow the stupidity regardless. I felt much more comfortable around old people. Not adults – ELDERS. I felt equally awkward around ‘grown ups’ especially if they were bleary-eyed high/drunk; I can still smell the bourbon off the mustaches. Maybe it was because an elderly african-american used to walk me to my school bus stop every morning. That routine may have been my most consistent non-familial interaction in childhood. Much more reliable than my hungover mom.

    His name was “Sly”. He wore creased slacks, members’ only jacket, Kangol hat with thick-brimmed frames. He volunteered to escort me every morning at 6AM because he occupied the same ghetto hotel my mom lived and worked in. Needless to say, the neighborhood wasn’t “Full House.” I always joke that I’m cool, wise and jazzy because of Sly.

    Well, boarding the bus may as well have been boarding Apollo 11, transporting me to another world an hour away [depending on traffic].

    Us yellow school-busers used to play a game. We would look out into the fwy, and call out cars. First to name the car [correctly], ‘got’ the car. The fancier the better. Well, the journey would begin with a trickle, maybe a suped up Mazda, ’64 Impala or convertible 5.0..by the end a flood of Jags, Porches and Ferraris. The high prize was a Lambo.

    The elementary I attended was wealthy. Not middle-class. Not upper-middle class. WEALTHY. The Jackson Family [yes, that one] used to literally live down the street [eerie, thinking back.]


    My best friend? A Japanese kid who barely spoke English. Yoshi just moved to L.A., and if I was an outsider, he was an alien. This was the “Bladerunner” era where red-bow-tied Americans fear-mongered that the Japanese would own the country by 2019, and we’d all be speaking “Jap”.

    Well, his dad was part of that Japanese business “invasion”. Needless to say, many ‘mericans were hostile. As a child, you don’t exactly sit and analyze much from a psychological, sociological or geopolitical lens. – like how a “thug” from the inner city befriends an “FOB” [fresh off the boat]; however, in retrospect, it makes absolute sense. Gender, nationality, language, class, race, ethnicity…didn’t matter.

    We were both Martians exiled to the Valley.


  • Got a Chubb?

    Got a Chubb?

    Megan Briggs/Getty Images

    Dolphins released Bradley Chubb, so naturally, Bear fans are instantly debating if they they want him, or if he’s even cap feasible.

    I’ll give my take.

    At first I didn’t want him. He’s basically another 29yr old Sweat-tier DE [if that]. Good, but not dominant like Crosby, Garrett, or prime Mack/Peppers.

    HOWEVER, unlike those S-tier edges, Chubb will NOT cost multiple 1sts.

    We gotta be real. I doubt Poles is going to admit he totally whiffed on Dayo. He sticks way too long on ‘his guys’ whether it’s Claypoo, Velus, or even Eberflus. We also must calculate that Dayo will cost approx $20M against the ’26 cap and won’t save much if cut. Poles will essentially be paying Dayo $22M to thin out an already wafer-thin Dline.

    It gets worse. Dayo [who never had more than 5 sacks a season] is coming off an achilles’ INJ which take 9-12 months for recovery, and sometimes two years, and sometimes, the athlete NEVER regains the same explosion [nightmare scenario for Trapilo as well. He could return around Halloween or January ’27, and he may never be the same regardless].

    As the link above discusses, MAYBBBEEE Halas can dump Dayo via INJ settlement, spread out the cap hit, but I’m not holding my breath. Dayo’s not going to sail off in a banana boat out of the kindness of his heart. As such, Bears are likely stuck with Dayo and his $20M cap hit.

    With that in mind, what are the chances the Bears are able to land a top DE like Crosby or Garrett? [to say nothing of the draft cost]. Can they even afford former Bengal Trey Hendrickson who seems to only care about getting paid?

    Enter Bradley Chubb who won’t cost the Bears draft picks or $40M/yr. The contract can be relatively short term too – something like the 3-yr Dayo contract, but hopefully with a short term out.

    Bradley Chubb. 6’4, 268, 29 yrs old, 34″ arms, but mostly played in a 3-4. 11 sacks in ’23, [tore his ACL in ’24]; 8 sacks in ’25 + 12.2% rush win rate. PFF grade 57 overall. Pass rush 60. Run 57. [His run D doesn’t thrill me or Allen]

    Two big questions:
    1. Is he a fit in Allen’s 4-3?
    2. Are his best years behind him [see ACL]?

    Given the disaster that is Dayo, it’s hard for me to trust the scouting eyes at Halas to properly answer those, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers, and the Bears are beggars here.

    We don’t know if another team will conveniently release a Chubb-tier DE, and even if they do in-season, that hypothetical released DE will hit the waivers.

    So while I may not get a full-Chubb for Chubb, he may be the best option of a suboptimal situation especially since we have no clue when Dayo [who sucked] will even be available for much of the season.

    Signing Chubb will also mean that Poles can keep the #25 overall pick, and future picks, to re-stack a team which has more holes than the Iraqi navy.

    Crosby and Garrett are the sleek sports’ car with the whale-tail.
    Chubb is that Toyota Camry the gambler who whiffed must settle for.



  • Take. The. Points.

    Take. The. Points.

    Official. Pats-v-Seahawks SB.

    This was my projected outcome. I still predict SEA will win the whole thing. They seem like the most complete team: solid coaching; good QB [who is not currently choking]; unstoppable WR with 1-2 punch at HB; great D and specials; NFCW Battle tested [unlike Pats].

    Brett James@thebrettjames1
    ·10h
    Patriots path to a Super Bowl:

    Dolphins x2 (7-10)

    Panthers (8-9)

    Saints (6-11)

    Titans (3-14)

    Bills (12-5)

    Browns (5-12)

    Falcons (8-9)

    Buccaneers (8-9)

    Jets x2 (3-14)

    Bengals (6-11)

    Giants (4-13)

    Ravens (8-9)

    [Playoffs]Justin Herbert; CJ Stroud; Jarrett Stidham

    Dante Koplowitz-Fleming@DanteKopFlem
    ·10h
    Fewest points scored in the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship Games en route to a Super Bowl appearance:

    54 – 2025 Patriots [Maye]
    61 – 2000 Ravens [Dilfer]
    68 – 2007 Giants [Eli]

    This was Maye’s statline somewhere in the 2nd QTR vs Broncos:

    8/14 [57%], 46 yds, and 50 yds rushing, 1 TD. Maye is Fields!

    NFL Researcher@NFL_Researcher
    ·10h
    The Patriots have averaged 18.0 PPG this postseason, the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams (15.0).

    One seemingly underrated area though is the Pats’ Dline, especially the interior. They make life hard on both HB and QB, which allows Maye to effectively game manage and scramble on pivotal downs.

    Butch’s overall ’26 playoff impression.

    Collinsworth, of all ppl, perhaps summed it up best:

    “These games more often than not are lost not won.”

    BJ, Payton, McVay, all good, all offensive minded, all aggressive, all ‘analytic driven’…watching SB from home just like the rest of us.

    Why?

    Because they all passed up on gimme 3 points that could’ve absolutely turned the tide.

    BJ’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that 4rth down magic Caleb TD doesn’t send the game to OT [where Bears lose], rather sends them to the next round vs SEA who looked much more beatable than I surmised.

    Payton’s missing 3 points? I mean, Jesus, he’s playing with a backup QB who had ZERO live snaps in a game that ended 10-7. No, he couldn’t have guessed the 2nd half would turn into a blizzard, but that’s why you TAKE. THE. POINTS.

    McVay’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that final drive just needed to get into FG range as opposed to needing a TD with no TOs and under a minute left. Much more doable since the Rams were moving the ball well all game.

    Time mismanagement also plagued the losing HCs.

    Payton was aggressive before the half which quickly gave back the ball to Pats [with 3 TOs] who then scored what ultimately became the game-deciding TD.

    McVay had zero TOs left by the end making it nigh impossible to drive the field and score a game winning TD.

    Meanwhile, their ‘defensive’ counterparts in Vrabel and McDonald mostly called it more ‘conservatively’. [One may argue, more ‘logically’ given their victories.] Does Vrabel or McDonald call that Caleb-to-DJ killshot in OT that was INTed? Or do they simply keep handing it off for another 10-12 yards with an O that was driving? Think we know the answer, and that is why they’re in the SB.

    Vrabel, like McVay, did go for it on 4rth, but it was 4rth and inches as opposed to 4rth and 1-2 yds, and even then it nearly ended in disaster. Honestly, it looked short to me live.

    Playing ‘to win the game’ resulted in losses.

    When one thinks of Genghis Khan likely images of a marauding wild general come to mind; however, many of his victories derived from relying on his enemies’ rashness to chase his ‘fleeing nomads’. Little did the cocky suckers realize it was a feigned retreat leading to slaughter.

    Now fast forward to Hitler dogmatically sticking to the philosophy of Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg! Or alternatively, ordering his generals to hold positions to the death when a tactical retreat would’ve been optimal.

    Hope Ben Johnson takes this lesson to heart:

    a great general knows when to blitzkrieg, when to feint, and when to TAKE THE FUCKING POINTS.