Dec 7, GB. [Preview]
Total O/U: 44.5
Puke: -5.5 Favorites
Sunday 4:25PM EA, Fox
Booth: Kevin Burkhardt/Brady
Bears: —————/Pack:
PPG: 26.1 [8th] ——/ 24.5 [10th]
PPG allowed: 25.6 [27th] /18.8 [4th]
TO Margin: +17 [1st] /+4 [T-10th]
3rd Dwn O: 43.9% [6th] /49.3% [1st]
3rd Down D: 35.2% [7th] /38.5% [17th]
As one can see, the teams are evenly matched. Nevertheless, the fact that the Bears are outscoring the Puke through 13 weeks boggles the mind. The biggest discrepancies are that the Bears’ D causes way more TOs but also allows more points.
While the Packers’ D is avg in stopping 3rd downs but are a top 4 unit in preventing scores.
So, it seems, as always, the Bears’ D must rely on creating TOs.
I used to believe they were too fluky to count on, but Dennis Allen [much like ’16 Lovie] has made them a feature – not a bug.
Keep in mind that the Eagles were #1 in NOT turning it over, yet the Bears still managed to literally pry the ball away on their staple Tush-Push as Byard racked-up another INT to lead the NFL. Bears’ D gets gashed, but by hook-or-crook, they pounce on the pigskin.
Bears’ redzone O: 58.5% [T-15th] avg.
Packers’ rz O: 67.4% [3rd] very potent
Bears’ RZ D: 61% [26th]Need to create TOs
Puke RZ D: 59.4% [21st] Could be shoot-out
INJ reports. [Will be updated in comments]
QB Tale of the Tape:
Love:———Caleb
67%-Comp%-58.1%
2,794–YDs— 2,722
19/3–TD/INT– 17/5
164–Rush Yds 306
0—–Rush TDs 3
104.3-QB Rating 88.2
Looks like shadowboxing. Their stats are eerily similar. While Love better than Caleb in comp% and passer rating, Caleb the superior runner, escape artist and off-kilter thrower. In addition, gotta factor-in that GB has spent 5 yrs cultivating Love, including learning from a HOFer from the bench, while Caleb is only in his 2nd year and already with his 4rth OC. I am a little surprised Love hasn’t thrown many INTs given that he has 11 of them in both ’23 and ’24. However, friendly reminder that coming into Black Friday, Jaylen Hurts only threw ONE INT, so Wright, Byard et al don’t give a damn about your stats.
Run game:
Obviously, the Bears own a big advantage here. Swift YPC=4.8 and Monangai=4.9 coming off a dominating performance vs a stout Eagles’ Dline
That being said, the Pack cock-blocked Gibbs, keeping him at 3.4 YPC/68 Total while season long are limiting HBs to under 4.0 YPC, so it’ll be strength-vs-strength. Who is mas macho?
I hope to gawd Ben Johnson sticks to the run and limits the shotgun formations. You don’t want Micah Parsons [12.5 sks] flying off the edge vs Ozzy Trapilo. As such, I expect lots of TE/HB chipping with a healthy dose of quick screens towards Parsons’ side.
BJ was also cooking with the misdirections vs Philly. It totally slowed down Zach Baun and aggressive Philly D; added wrinkle, BJ has put enough “trick plays” on tape to make any DC think twice about just teeing-off.
Goff had a good game vs Packers [if not for some major drops]; ergo, if the O works off that PA, Caleb can likewise strike tactically as he did vs Philly.
Bears’ run D, despite backup LBs and thin Dline, held Barkley to 4.3 YPC and 53 yds total. O dominating TOP contributed to that no doubt.
However, most of us watched the Packers-Lions’ game, and Jacobs looked strong with 4.9 YPC /83 YDs total; Jacobs also ran for 5.7 YPC vs Giants, and 5.1 vs Panthers, so he’s picking up steam in chilly weather.
What worries me more is Jordan Love looked like a top-3 QB vs a stiff Lions’ D in Detroit. He made ballsy throws on clutch downs sans INTs – very reminiscent of his predecessor. Love went off for 234, 4TDs, 0 SKs [in 30 pass attempts] for 124.2 Rating.
So the key will be two fold. Make sure Jacobs doesn’t get going and force Love to become prime-Rodgers. With any luck, he reverts to drunk-Favre and starts chucking INTs.
Like with the Eagles, all the pressure will be on THEM. The tighter and later it gets, the better it will be for the Bears since they’re used to being the junkyard dogs no one wants lurking.
The Bears haven’t been the #1 seed in the NFC this late since…’16!
Mano de Sweetness