Happy [Early] Turkey Day! Or if you’re vegetarian, Tofurkey Day which actually can double as a football if you play Thanksgiving ball like me and my friends used to.
Rev reminded me of the Fog Bowl, so if you’re feeling nostalgic, click here.
Bears@Eagles Preview.
O/U 44.5; Eagles -6.5
Eagles’ O.
PPG. 23.2 [17th]
YPG. 303.6 [24rth]
PYPG. 193.2 [23rd]
RYPG. 110.5 [21st]
3rd Down conv. 34.56% [27th]
TOs. 6 [1st]
As of Weds, the Eagles are still missing RT Lane Johnson. Given how impactful Montez Sweat has been since the bye, that’s absolutely a favorable Bears’ matchup.
As for the Bears, eyes are on Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon finally returning. Honestly though, how much of a ‘downgrade’ is Nashon Wright from JJ? JJ has dropped some relatively easy INTs, you think he makes some of those spectacular Wright high-points? Wright was also in prime position to end the Steelers’ game at the end if Brisker doesn’t tip it. You have the same confidence JJ INTs that?
Meanwhile all CJ Gardner-Johnson has done is everything. What does Gordon do better besides strain something?
These are real questions Dennis Allen must answer soon, and maybe Ryan Poles down the line with the cap and trying to nab and pay a premiere rusher like Jefferey Simmons or Myles Garrett.
The Eagles’ O doesn’t turn it over, so this is strength vs strength. I think the last time the Bears lost the turnover battle [Ravens], they lost the game. So we’ll see which unit imposes its will. #1 No TO Eagles’ O – or #1 TO Bears’ D.
Their run game has struggled though. They avg 3.9 per rush, 2.30 yds before contact, and rank 24rth in EPA in last 3 weeks. Flus actually used a 5-man “Bear” front to stuff Saquon Barkley, and I can easily see Dennis Allen following suit with Brisker, Sewell, Jackson, or Gordon[?] and CJ off the corners. Granted, Cowboys had Quinnen Williams, but Grady Jarrett has looked healthier as of late.
The wildcard will be Jaylen Hurts scrambling; the Bears have struggled vs running QBs like Dart, Huntley, etc and are down to PS squad tier LBs who bit on every misdirection vs Steelers, but as the Giants found out the hard way, that’s a risky gameplan. Bears’ D flies and lays the wood hunting for TOs.
On D, we all know the Eagles’ Dline is to envy. We are well aware that Poles drafted Darnell Wright instead of Jalen Carter, and that Carter has played at an AP level and is arguably a top 3 DT which we can fantasize about.
However, the Bears’ Oline has totally rebounded from ’24 and has become an asset coming off a strong game vs Steelers where Ozzy Trapilo stepped in and looked the part.
Caleb struggling under pressure raises an eyebrow. Would like to see him make aggressive Ds pay, but what QB doesn’t struggle under pressure?
One thing that could be a gamechanger though is that the Vikings brought edge blitzers to stifle the stretch run and contain Caleb.
The Eagles’ Dline is talented enough to not need to blitz, which means Fangio will use all kinds of exotic coverages to confuse Caleb. If there’s a rush in his face on top of that, could be a long Black Friday for Caleb.
Here’s a concise game preview by Bears Now.
Think Trac said Bears would have to get two turnovers and score over 30 to win this game.
My response, “So, basically, another Bears’ game.”
It’s gotten to that point in the season where we don’t have to wonder all that much what teams are.
The Bears are a feisty, sloppy, opportunistic team with the most dangerous weapon of all:
BELIEF
They BELIEVE that if it’s close, no matter how slow, penalty-ridden, or miscued through 3 QTRs – no matter if the opposing team blocked a punt/FG, returned for a TD, strip-sacked TD, are averaging 6 yards per play, or if they’re down to 20 players because lighting struck their sideline…these Bears believe they’ll close it out regardless.
That’s a 180 from the floundering Fluses which found ways to lose.
Bears are a scary team to face even if you are the reigning champs and favorited Eagles. Bears are playing with house $ while the entire Philly hate-machine has been pounding on them all season especially after a brutal blown game against their hated rival Cowboys.
Overtime:
Couple odd stats for Bears.
1. No QB with such an awful comp% wins as much as Caleb Williams. It’s not even all that close really:
2. Bears are also -3 point differential total the whole season. Apparently only the 1987 Chargers were worse through 11 games.
[Any old-timers recall the ’87 Chargers?]
I mentioned this before, but this Bears’ team reminds me a lot of the ’22 Vikings when they made that crazy 13-4 run with Kirk Cousins. Felt like every week was that scene from “Airplane”, “Looks like I picked the wrong time to quit sniffing glue!”
[2023 Vikings? 7-10]
Then add that the Bears’ D allows 5.77 YPP [20th], 26.5 PPG [27th] yet still count on at least 2+TOs per game [1st], and one can understand why many persist the Bears are “Fun Frauds.”
It’ll be up to Bears to finally silence the doubters; after all, the only difference between “fun frauds” and epic “Cinderellas” is winning.
[Go Puke?]