Haven’t shared some Tim Jenkins Caleb Williams’ breakdown in a spell. Mostly ’cause Caleb gets sliced and diced more than a frog in a Jr. High Science class.
But here is a thorough analysis of every Caleb throw vs Puke.
One. It’s a bit frustrating seeing Caleb throw absolute perfect balls to Cole Kmet on the scramble drill, then Olamide Zaccheaus for that TD with a CB draped all over him; then the very first clip Caleb sails badly, or that last INT to lose the game.
Caleb is at 52.5% for the last 5 games which is actually LOWER than Kyle Orton [in 2nd yr].
I keep bringing up Kyle Orton on purpose since I don’t think that’s necessarily an insult. He finished his rook campaign at 51.6%, but more importantly, with a 10-5 record showing that a QB can win as a ‘game manager’. Problem is Orton’s D was much better than this ’25 D. OTOH, ’25 Bears’ D is leading the league in TOs, so it’s basically a wash.
However, unlike Orton, Caleb has a much livelier arm and mobility which has translated into less sacks and more explosive plays. Needless to say, Caleb just needs to ball from the opening bell. We keep waiting for it to happen, but what if this is just who Caleb is?
Two: Pure progression vs Post/Pre-Snap Look [PSL]:
Kurt Warner is a PSL believer. He advocates that the best QBs are the smartest QBs [in the pocket], and that the best way to outsmart a D is to actually diagnose it and take advantage of its particular flaws.
For instance, we all know that a big hole in the Cover 2 is a TE right up the seam [unless you have Urlacher as the MLB]. So, that TE becomes a QB’s #1 option.
In a pure progression the #1, #2, #3, etc are already predetermined coming out of the huddle. So it doesn’t matter if they’re playing Cover 2, Cover 3, the reads are locked in.
Jenkins illustrates the pros and cons of using either in his video.
Pro. When the PS look is super muddy [Think Dennis Allen on 3rd downs]. 8 defenders all lined up close to LOS, a QB has no clue if they’re going zero blitz, some blitz, falling back to Cover 2, etc
So, pure progression simplifies it since it barely matters what the D is doing. 1, 2, 3 already baked into the play.
Con. That final Caleb INT where #1 seemed to be Kmet when maybe it could’ve been altered at the line to DJ [or just straight sprint?]. There’s plenty of other examples in this video alone. How many times throughout the season have we been screaming, “Look, he’s open!” Yes, but maybe he was the 4rth option while Caleb was running for his life.
“Predetermined” is the keyword. From the outside it looks like Caleb just locks onto a target, but maybe that’s what BJ WANTS him to do [for now].
Either way, Jenkins does an excellent job of showcasing the debate as well as explaining some of Ben Johnson’s playcalling logic.
