At the peak of Dutch Tulip Mania in 1637, a single Semper Augustus bulb cost up to 10,000 guilders, which is estimated to be worth roughly $250,000+ in modern currency. This amount was enough to buy a luxurious mansion on an Amsterdam canal, making it the most expensive bulb in history.
I know what you’re asking, “What the hell does the Tulip craze [and crash] of 1637 have to do with the NFL?”
Well, good question, grasshopper.
Whilst watching the NFL Draft, I was utterly stunned that BJ/Poles drafted yet another TE. I mean, it’s not as if Kmet is a weed. So using the 3rd [69th overall] on TE3 seemed overkill esp when Bears roster a bottom 3rd Dline.
When I played FF, ppl generally implemented two strategies. You can either spend bigly on prime Kelce/Kittle/Antonio Gates/Gonzales/Gronk, or pass on them altogether and spend on WR1, WR2, RB1, RB2, and throw a measly $buck for a TE1 at the end of draft. “Stars and scrubs.”
But as Dylan twanged, ‘the times, they are a-changing’.
Two/Three TE packages [12-13 personnel] is now all the NFL rage. The Pats provided the blueprint with Gronk/Hernandez. McVey has modernized it. Ben Johnson obviously taking it to the next lvl.
BJ isn’t alone. NYJ started the TE push when drafting TE Sadiq 16th overall. TE Stowers went in the 2nd [54th], Boerkircher 2nd [56th], Klein [59th], Klare [61] then the 3rd RD opened.
At this point BJ/Poles must’ve thought, “holy shit, I don’t think Roush is going to survive this round.” TE Mania was in full effect. So, with the 69th pick, Bears selected TE Sam Roush – a beastly blocker with drop issues.
9ers wasted no time in drafting Edge Romello Height very next pick. Puke in same round drafted DT Chris McLellan, Jags DT Albert Regis, Vikings fan fav DT Big Citrus Orange, Cowboys Edge Barham, so it’s not as if Poles couldn’t have drafted Dline. He [or more accurately, BJ] chose TE over dline.
Stowers, Delp, Klare, Roush and Raridon combined for just nine touchdowns in 2025, while Sadiq had eight by himself. These tight ends are not household names, even amongst the most diehard college football fans.
Will the risk of these tight end selections this early in the draft be worth it down the road?
Maybe.
However, many general managers could be left scratching their heads before these tight ends finish playing on their rookie contracts.
The TE frenzy wasn’t over. THREE more TEs were drafted in the 2nd after Roush. About TWENTY were drafted by the time Mr. Irrelevant hit the stage. Keep in mind that this TE class wasn’t particularly viewed as strong, and much like toilet paper during Covid, GMs bumrushed the TE aisles to stock up before missing out. Talk about FOMO.
Rationale.
As any finance man will admit, the market masks itself in logic, laws, equations, algos – SCIENCE, but all it takes is one ansty townsfolk sprinting to the bank to trigger a run.
The NFL differs little. Only need ONE NFL GM to ‘overdraft’ or buck ‘consensus’, then the rest of the GMs frantically redraw their boards.
Bears specifically likely valued TE much more than other teams:
Kirsten Tanis@Kirsten_Tanis1
·May 2
2025 BEARS OFFENSEPlays
🔸 11 Personnel: 569 (51.6%)
🔸 12 Personnel: 360 (32.6%)
🔸 13 Personnel: 94 (8.5%)EPA/Play
🔸 11 Personnel: +0.05
🔸 12 Personnel: +0.08
🔸 13 Personnel: +0.32 😳In the 2nd half of the season, 12 + 13 personnel accounted for 50% of the plays. So Ben kept ratcheting them up all season
Considering this, it may not seem that much of an “over reach” despite DESPERATELY needing to upgrade Dline.
TE trend makes sense in the macro as well. The NFL is a punch, counter-punch kinda league. Os went pass heavy. Ds retired the neck-roll and got smaller and faster. Now QBs struggle mightily [see Kiper’s epic rant to outlaw the Cover 2], ergo many OCs now want to revert to Tank Packages. Surprisingly, tank packages aren’t just to run it down their throats either as studies have shown that teams actually throw more out of 12-13 personnel than expected. Again, punch, counter-punch. DC spots heavy, expects run, that leaves Loveland isolated with a LB – boom.
It might make sense in the micro too. Packers traded for Parsons. If you’re the Bears with an IFFY LT/C, it may not be the best idea to throw it 40 times a windy game. Instead, just run right at the small fast DE with an achy back.
This strat can apply to all other teams with a 3-4 Edge who are typically undersized at about 240.
Will Roush payoff more than a Dlinemen like Big Orange?
I suppose only time will tell.
In our 2021 MiB podcast, he made this observation:
Think about what that means every time FOMO rears its head…
Ultimately, we’re going to have to trust this man over timid draftnerds.
Let’s hope the gambit turns up roses and not tulips.
