Da Dos

Tag: Seahawks

  • Super Bowl LX

    Super Bowl LX

    I rememeber that ’18 NFL Draft when CLE selected Baker Mayfield #1 overall, the Jets selected Sam Darnold #3 overall, while the Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7 banking that he’d be another good ‘project’ like Carson Wentz for the Eagles [‘ 17 Wentz threw for 33TDs/7ints and 101.9 passer rating].

    Incidentally, the Bears drafted Roq at #8, Bills drafted Edmunds at #16, Panthers drafted DJ Moore at #24 and Hippy’s adopted son Chosen Rosen went #11 overall.

    I remember thinking at the time that both Mayfield and Darnold were ‘can’t miss.’
    I loved Mayfield’s mojo to turn around the factory of sadness. I thought Darnold’s steady demeanor and playing in L.A. [USC] suited him well for the intense NY market.

    Yet somehow, the Browns and Jets still broke them.

    I was a bit more on the fence about Josh Allen. Wentz recency bias made me think big physical ‘projects’ from small schools could work, but man, that’s a gamble [as the Eagles found out].

    I wasn’t too sold on Rosen. To me, he was sorta the JJ McCarthy of that draft. Meh.

    However, both Mayfield and Darnold “busting” really made me self-evaluate. How could I have been so wrong on both? I didn’t expect either to be sure-fire HOFers, but BUSTS?

    I mean one, yeah, stats say QBs are 50/50, but BOTH. Maybe draft picks are no better than taking a spin at the Roulette table.

    Well, as it turns out, both Mayfield and Darnold only needed to join functional teams.

    Then it hit me. I was wrong, but not in the way I imagined.

    I erred in believing in that the philosophy of “pick yourself up by your bootstrap” still applies to QBs. It obviously does NOT.

    Like much in life, surrounding greatly impacts results.

    This is an old debate: nature-v-nurture.

    But it’s not binary.

    Browns and Jets have been forever dysfunctional, and as Florio refrains, “dysfunctional teams do dysfunctional things” and this can be macro: owners, GMs, coaches, draft…to micro: developing players, ESP QBs.

    Being dysfunctional isn’t a death sentence either. The Bengals, Lions and Bears have also been a laughing stock for 40+ years, yet they seemed to have dug themselves out of the Browns/Jets 9th circle of hell.

    I was mistaken in assuming that a single individual, even a QB, can simply will himself to be an Ubermench regardless of circumstance.

    One might be tempted to retort, “Well, Brady and Mahomes would’ve been great no matter.” Really? What if the Chris Palmer Browns drafted Brady and the Pace-Nagy Bears drafted Mahomes?

    This works the other way as well.
    A successful organization doesn’t automatically generate HOF QBs like some GPT prompt.

    Reid in KC could only go so far with Alex Smith. The same Pats who won 6 SBs drafted Mac Jones. 9ers traded the house for Trey Lance.

    Oops!

    I suppose this is a long-winded way of stating the obvious:

    It takes both nature+nurture=success.

    The formula isn’t written in stone. Who knows about the ratio. 80% to 20% or vice versa.

    But USUALLY [outliers do exist] it is some ratio of both.

    This SB marks the first time two top 5 [drafted] QBs square-off. That’s a remarkable stat given the ENORMOUS amount of resources that go into finding a franchise QB.

    It illustrates how fickle the whole process really is, how maybe one seemingly minute factor could set off a whole butterfly effect.

    Terry Bradshaw’s life literally came down to a coin flip. Steelers won. They drafted Bradshaw, and after a disastrous start he rebounded to win 4 SBs.

    The Bears traded their #2 to the Green Bay Packers for veterans Lee Roy Caffey, Bob Hyland, and Elijah Pitts translating to squat.

    If Bears win coinflip and draft Bradshaw…well, you elder-fans tell me if it results in 4 SBs…

    Overtime:

    Butch’s SB pick.

    I think I’ve been right in every pick [except in Bears over Rams, but I can live with that].

    I think SEA’s D is simply too dominant to allow such a young QB (who’s been a playoff TO machine) to excel.

    When a D has a legit nickname [The Darkside], you know they’re good!

    There’s a risk that Darnold will Darnold, but thus far he really hasn’t [outside Rams]. If he starts seeing ghosts again, it’ll be one epic chokejob.

    On top of that, SEA has a great one-two punch at HB, plus a dangerous returner and solid specials with sound coaching.

    The Pats’ Dline is real, but how tight will the refs call this game? A lot of times they allow WAAAAY more holding [and PIs] than usual in the SB, which may mitigate the Pats’ biggest advantage.

    As such, I predict a slow, tight game, but with huge SEA momentum surges which will be too much for a relatively inexperienced Pats’ team.

    Darnold gets his ultimate vindication while the Queens are stuck with #9 watching the SB in a Cancun bar….

  • Take. The. Points.

    Take. The. Points.

    Official. Pats-v-Seahawks SB.

    This was my projected outcome. I still predict SEA will win the whole thing. They seem like the most complete team: solid coaching; good QB [who is not currently choking]; unstoppable WR with 1-2 punch at HB; great D and specials; NFCW Battle tested [unlike Pats].

    Brett James@thebrettjames1
    ·10h
    Patriots path to a Super Bowl:

    Dolphins x2 (7-10)

    Panthers (8-9)

    Saints (6-11)

    Titans (3-14)

    Bills (12-5)

    Browns (5-12)

    Falcons (8-9)

    Buccaneers (8-9)

    Jets x2 (3-14)

    Bengals (6-11)

    Giants (4-13)

    Ravens (8-9)

    [Playoffs]Justin Herbert; CJ Stroud; Jarrett Stidham

    Dante Koplowitz-Fleming@DanteKopFlem
    ·10h
    Fewest points scored in the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship Games en route to a Super Bowl appearance:

    54 – 2025 Patriots [Maye]
    61 – 2000 Ravens [Dilfer]
    68 – 2007 Giants [Eli]

    This was Maye’s statline somewhere in the 2nd QTR vs Broncos:

    8/14 [57%], 46 yds, and 50 yds rushing, 1 TD. Maye is Fields!

    NFL Researcher@NFL_Researcher
    ·10h
    The Patriots have averaged 18.0 PPG this postseason, the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams (15.0).

    One seemingly underrated area though is the Pats’ Dline, especially the interior. They make life hard on both HB and QB, which allows Maye to effectively game manage and scramble on pivotal downs.

    Butch’s overall ’26 playoff impression.

    Collinsworth, of all ppl, perhaps summed it up best:

    “These games more often than not are lost not won.”

    BJ, Payton, McVay, all good, all offensive minded, all aggressive, all ‘analytic driven’…watching SB from home just like the rest of us.

    Why?

    Because they all passed up on gimme 3 points that could’ve absolutely turned the tide.

    BJ’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that 4rth down magic Caleb TD doesn’t send the game to OT [where Bears lose], rather sends them to the next round vs SEA who looked much more beatable than I surmised.

    Payton’s missing 3 points? I mean, Jesus, he’s playing with a backup QB who had ZERO live snaps in a game that ended 10-7. No, he couldn’t have guessed the 2nd half would turn into a blizzard, but that’s why you TAKE. THE. POINTS.

    McVay’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that final drive just needed to get into FG range as opposed to needing a TD with no TOs and under a minute left. Much more doable since the Rams were moving the ball well all game.

    Time mismanagement also plagued the losing HCs.

    Payton was aggressive before the half which quickly gave back the ball to Pats [with 3 TOs] who then scored what ultimately became the game-deciding TD.

    McVay had zero TOs left by the end making it nigh impossible to drive the field and score a game winning TD.

    Meanwhile, their ‘defensive’ counterparts in Vrabel and McDonald mostly called it more ‘conservatively’. [One may argue, more ‘logically’ given their victories.] Does Vrabel or McDonald call that Caleb-to-DJ killshot in OT that was INTed? Or do they simply keep handing it off for another 10-12 yards with an O that was driving? Think we know the answer, and that is why they’re in the SB.

    Vrabel, like McVay, did go for it on 4rth, but it was 4rth and inches as opposed to 4rth and 1-2 yds, and even then it nearly ended in disaster. Honestly, it looked short to me live.

    Playing ‘to win the game’ resulted in losses.

    When one thinks of Genghis Khan likely images of a marauding wild general come to mind; however, many of his victories derived from relying on his enemies’ rashness to chase his ‘fleeing nomads’. Little did the cocky suckers realize it was a feigned retreat leading to slaughter.

    Now fast forward to Hitler dogmatically sticking to the philosophy of Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg! Or alternatively, ordering his generals to hold positions to the death when a tactical retreat would’ve been optimal.

    Hope Ben Johnson takes this lesson to heart:

    a great general knows when to blitzkrieg, when to feint, and when to TAKE THE FUCKING POINTS.

  • Saturday Div Thread

    Saturday Div Thread

    Bills@Broncos first to kick-off.
    My stepdad is from CO, so he’s a semi-casual Donk fan [who naturally despises the Raiders]. As such, I’ll be rooting for them; however, Bo Nix is young; they’re loaded and Payton isn’t going anywhere, so if they lose on Saturday, they’ll still be perennial contenders for a few more years.

    I think the Broncos will win mostly because the Bills’ D seems to fall apart in the playoffs, and Payton is a smarter Sean than McDermott.

    I am curious to see if the vaunted Donks’ D can contain Allen though.

    The Broncos are similar to the Bears in starting slow but finding magic late with a sophomore QB, the difference being their D tends to keep it low scoring. I seriously doubt Bo can put up 25 points in the 4rth like Caleb, but he seems to do just enough.

    That’s how they ended up with the #1 Seed after all. Like most, I got a soft spot for Bills’ Mafia, so I just want a good game.

    9ers@Hawks. The most unpredictable games are division games, esp division playoffs games as we gleefully witnessed in the WC RD.

    For our purposes, we want SEA to lose so that 9ers must travel to SF, but I tell you, I almost prefer the Bears facing SEA on the road than playing SF at home because Purdy/Shanahan absolutely paddled the Bears’ ass to the tune of 42 points, and it could’ve easily been 50.

    This game will come down to mostly one thing.

    Will Darnold see ghosts?

    The SEA D IMO is the best this season. They held the 9ers to 3 measly points last time they played for the #1 Seed, and it’s hard to envision the 9ers’ O suddenly becoming more explosive against them esp w/out Kittle [achilles]. I think the 9ers’ INJ plague finally catches up to them, and they lose; obviously I wouldn’t mind the opposite to set up a 9er rematch at SF.

    For what it’s worth, think the COY should come down to Shanahan and Ben Johnson, and this weekend might determine who wins it.

    Courtesy of GP from last thread!