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Tag: Schedule

  • The NFC North 2026 Schedule Comparison: Chicago gets rocked

    The NFC North 2026 Schedule Comparison: Chicago gets rocked

    Written by GP

    If you wanted a schedule that Dan Campbell can dance a little jig to, you just got it. Bears get stiffed harder than Riley Reid on set.

    The setup. Statistically, previous year schedule is almost useless as a predictor: from 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team’s actual Strength of Schedule [SOS] was explained by opponents’ prior-year records; this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years. Warren Sharp‘s preferred method swaps in 2026 Vegas projected win totals, which captures coaching changes, roster turnover, and quarterback movement that last year’s record can’t see. The Patriots-from-4-13-to-14-3 problem is something the NFL actually looked at.

    For the NFC North, both methods agree on the bookends and disagree on the middle.

    The Traditional Numbers (2025 Opponent W%)

    Bears .550 (hardest in NFL) … T3. Packers .538 … 11. Vikings .519 … 27. Lions .467 – Easiest: New York Giants

    Three NFC North teams in the top eleven hardest, with the Lions out at 27th — that’s a direct artifact of every team in the division finishing 2025 above .500, which forces three of them into first-place rotations against tough opponents while the lone team without that penalty (Detroit, who didn’t win the division) catches HUGE breaks. There are two big reasons why the Bears’ schedule is so difficult: Strength of schedule is based on your opponents’ record from last season and every team in the NFC North finished with a winning record last year which had never happened in my lifetime before.

    Where does it get interesting?

    Lions: #1 easiest schedule in the NFC-N. Using current Vegas win totals as our measure, the Lions stand out as having the easiest schedule. By a lot.

    Bears: 6th-hardest in the NFL overall. Slightly less brutal than the traditional method suggests but still top-quartile-tough.

    Packers and Vikings: Neither is at the extreme of Sharp’s list — they’re middle-of-pack-to-tough, but lighter than the .538 and .519 traditional numbers would suggest, because Sharp’s model downgrades opponents who lost their QB or coach over the offseason.

    What’s Actually Driving the Bears’ Pain

    The Bears’ slate is heavy by either measure because of where they finished and where they sit in the rotation.

    The Chicago Bears wind up with the hardest schedule in the NFL based on being the NFC North division champion – which automatically puts them on a collision course with the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles. But they also have to face the ENTIRE AFC East this year which means going up against the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Their interconference opponent for 2026 is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

    That’s already five games against teams that had at least 11 wins last year :

    Seahawks (Super Bowl LX winners), Eagles, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars — before you count the two each against Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota.

    After winning the NFC North for the first time since 2020, the Bears were handed the league’s sixth-hardest schedule in ’26. They’ll open the season on the road to take on the Panthers in Week 1 before a seven-week stretch that features contests against the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Patriots. The back-half of their schedule, meanwhile, doesn’t provide much relief, as they’ll take on the Bills, Green Bay, the Lions and Minnesota over the final four weeks of the campaign.

    Why the Lions Get the Pansy Run

    Detroit drops to 27th in traditional SOS and #1-easiest in projected because they finished below the rest of the division in 2025 and drew the corresponding place-based rotation. They get the easier 2025-record cross-conference draws and avoid a first-place schedule’s extra teeth. The projected metric likes them even more because they’re forecast to play the highest pace of teams Vegas thinks won’t be very good in 2026.

    The Verdict

    Hardest: Bears, by a whole fucking lot. They’re #1 traditional and 6th projected — the only NFC North team in the top ten on both lists. The first six weeks include road trips to Carolina, Buffalo, and Washington, plus Philadelphia and Seattle at home, and the final four feature Bills/Packers/Lions/Vikings. There is no soft stretch. Harder the RoK in Vietnam.

    Easiest: Lions, by a mile. They’re 27th traditional and #1 projected — the only NFC North team comfortably in the bottom ten on either list, and the only team in the entire NFL with the #1 projected ranking for ease of schedule.

    Middle: Packers lean tough (T-3rd traditional, middle projected), Vikings lean middle (11th traditional, middle projected). Packers harder than Vikings.

    And, of course, every NFC North team plays every other one twice, so a meaningful chunk of each team’s SOS is shared. The differentiation comes from cross-conference and place-based rotations — and that’s where the Bears got incredibly punished for winning the division and the Lions got rewarded for not.

  • ’26 Bears’ Schedule

    ’26 Bears’ Schedule

    1st off, special shout out to my motherfucking Quant, GP!

    He put in the leg work, and remarkably, even had to hold back on showing us mouthbreathers more math, but his TLDR conclusion?

    Refs aren’t really screwing the Bears.

    Still, despite all the empirical evidence, numbers and data proving thus, still feels wrong.

    At this point if God himself descended to Soldier Field to declare the Bears are getting treated fairly, I still wouldn’t believe it!

    So for those who want to check out the pieces, just click on the 3 previous blogs.

    Onward, and upward to schedules.

    NFL is desperately attempting to make itself relevant year-round. First by extending the season from 11 games, to 12, 14, 16, 17, and soon to be, 18.

    Then they increased the playoff teams, adding a WC [which many traditional fans argued ‘watered-down’ the playoffs].

    SB may eventually land on Valentines’ Day, which I’m sure will go over well with the ladies.

    Then the NFL slowly but steadily built up the combine/Draft. Spearheaded by LegoHead Mel Kiper; it’s now an entire cottage industry. We got countless YTubers breaking down tape, mocking, grading, applying nerd-ball metrics, even supplying ProFootball Weekly style draft guides [PDF version, naturally].

    But alas, the draft ends, and casual fans once more disappear unless they’re really fiending for more draft in the form of class grades or worse – ’27 mocks!

    So, the NFL is trying to manufacture a new niche industry to sucker in more fans with Hollywood style ‘schedule releases’, and yes, ppl are actually now GRADING the productions! It won’t be long until YTubers are making their OWN schedule release vids. Book it.

    Schedules have also become much more complicated than they used to be. Before, it was just Strength of Opponent = [SOS]. But as Harry at ChatSports illustrates, ppl are now factoring ‘net rest advantage’ Apparently the Bears are at +15 while the Chargers are -24 rest days, whatever that means.

    Other nerdball metrics? Air-miles and playing teams coming off a bye + Prime Time games [now put them altogether and GP that shit].

    It should be noted that the schedule is not totally irrelevant. Last season the Pats played one of the easiest schedules of ALL TIME, and they basically skated into the playoffs before getting absolutely curb stomped by a real team in the SB.

    How much does it matter though? Well, that’s what Vegas is for, but the NFL changes weekly, even daily. Micah Parsons going on IR for the first 4 weeks is going to move the line. If Bo Nix’s ankle is proper-fucked, that changes odds dramatically. A backup QB starting will almost automatically make them dogs [unless they’re playing the Bears].

    Here’s Chris Simms on Vegas and DIV odds

    What’s interesting is how conservatively Vegas pushes. They’re still favoring the usual suspects as last season, including the Lions; in fact the only change is Rams over 9ers.

    ThienemanSZN@ThienemanSZN
    ·May 14
    The Bears open as favorites in 12/17 games

    (-2.5) Bears @ Panthers
    (-3.5) Bears vs Vikings
    (-1.5) Bears vs Eagles
    (-8.5) Bears vs Jets
    (+3.0) Bears @ Packers
    (-3.0) Bears @ Falcons
    (-1.5) Bears vs Patiots
    (+4.5) Bears @ Seahawks
    (-3.5) Bears vs Buccaneers
    (-6.5) Bears vs Saints
    (+2.5) Bears @ Lions
    (-2.5) Bears vs Jaguars
    (-5.5) Bears @ Dolphins
    (+3.5) Bears @ Bills
    (-1.5) Bears vs Packers
    (-1.5) Bears vs Lions
    (+1.5) Bears @ Vikings

    Yet they’re also favoring the Bears to win 12 out of 17. Ergo, Lions are winning 13+ games while sweeping the Bears despite still missing Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn?

    Who’s QBing the Vikings? “Seven” or Kyler Murray? How gimpy is Parson’s back? Other teams in the NFCN still have major questions relative to Bears. Naturally, Bears also present their own major question [Dline], but a fan can’t help but be optimistic about the core –

    BJ, Allen, and Caleb.

    We’re trusting somehow they’ll get ‘er done, net rest or not – catchy promo or not. Odds be damned. All in!


  • The Promised Land

    The Promised Land

    “Charlie Wilson’s War” is a criminally underrated movie. It’s about the CIA funding the Mujahideen in Afghanistan; it’s so absurd, it has to be true. Spoiler alert – it didn’t end well!

    Well, one scene specifically is cinematic magic in the hands of the late great Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

    This is how I feel about the Caleb Williams’ journey.

    Rookie year was up and down as Caleb definitely held on to the ball for too long resulting in a whopping 68 sacks [3rd most all time], but he did steer Bears to some late-time heroics including defeating GB in the finale.

    Nevertheless, the whole fiasco of going through 3 different OCs and Flus mid-season firing made it impossible to objectively evaluate.

    Up and down. Up and down.

    “We’ll see.”

    2025. First game he essentially gets outplayed by a raw JJ McCarthy. Then crushed by the Lions.

    He sucks!

    “We’ll see.”

    Later Caleb goes off on toothless Dallas.

    He’s great!

    “We’ll see.”

    Tyler Huntley comes off the Practice Squad and outduels him.

    Heck, often this rollercoaster spins us through loops in a single game.

    Bear games should come with the same warning: do not ride if you have a heart condition or abnormal blood pressure.

    Jaxson Dart, a rook on an awful team with a walking-dead HC, looked better than Caleb. Blame drops, BJ, wind, Tall Whites…don’t matter, Dart still looked sharper passing and running than Caleb [Flacco didn’t look too shabby in comparison either].

    Then Comeback Caleb dons his cape, and we know the rest.

    So where does that leave us?

    “We’ll see.”

    One thing is certain: through 10 weeks, the Bears have played some of the softest defenses.

    Jared@CinnamonJared
    ·
    The bears strength of schedule is .351 (next closest is Buffalo at .407) and their strength of victory is .272 (next closest is the jets at .278)

    Both easiest in the entire league

    Our very own Zombie posted this in-depth commentary:

    —————
    I know we’re all excited about being relevant this “late” in a season. Perhaps some perspective?

    Here are the records of Bears opponents thus far, not including the games against the Bears.

    The teams that beat the Bears
    Detroit: 5-3
    Minnesota: 3-5
    Baltimore: 3-5
    Aggregate: 11-13 (.458)

    Teams the Bears beat:
    Cowboys: 3-4-1
    Bengals: 3-5
    Commanders: 3-6
    Raiders: 2-6
    Saints: 2-7
    Giants: 2-7
    Aggregate: 15-35-1 (.304)

    Grand aggregate: .353

    In other words, bottom feeding. If you add the Bears games, the winning percentage of the opponents is 29-54-1, a mighty .351.

    Of course, you can only play who is on the schedule.

    But, clearly we ain’t done nothin’ yet.

    ———-
    Zombie is not alone. Twitter is brimming with [illiterate] doomers:

    Needless to say, the future SOS doesn’t get easier.

    “Front-runners” is a word floating around the Bears like Drakkar Noir at a gaudy discotheque.

    The other standard ‘slander’ on Caleb is that he wouldn’t need to be Captain Comeback if he actually played well for the other 3 QTRs.

    Or that despite the D spotting him 3 extra possessions, he still barely beats horrendous defenses.

    Common counters – Caleb only in his sophomore season, new to BJ-system, LT is some Canadian walk-on, he’s cut down his sack rate from 10.8 to 4.6 , unfair to compare to Maye, ‘this is a hit piece!’…

    And round-n-round we go.

    A lot of us may live in a Bear echo-chamber, but perhaps the sole good thing about Twitter is that one can see the haters from every echo-chamber!

    So what does this all mean?

    Simple. Caleb must prove the doubters wrong down the stretch.

    It won’t be about stats, comp %, EPA, “4K!” or other nerdanomics.

    Maybe not even about wins and losses.

    Caleb’s rating could hit 158.3 the rest of the way, and it won’t matter in the win column if the defense gets lit up by SB contenders like the Lions, Eagles, 9ers, Pack [2X]…while Specials continue to struggle as flags fly.

    Of course, we’re all going to be pulling for Caleb. How awesome would it be for him to rise above the criticism – to grow before our eyes and totally dominate from anthem to fade to black…

    To transfigure into that mythical elite QB we’ve all been waiting for so long…

    The franchise-messiah to finally lead us to the SB Promised-Land…

    Will he deliver?

    “We’ll see.”

  • ’25 Bears’ Schedule

    ’25 Bears’ Schedule

    [Trumpets blaring] Official schedule

    Have at it

  • Opener ’25

    Opener ’25

    The official NFL schedule isn’t announced ’til Weds 8PM EA
    So I was musing which opponents I’d like the Bears to face for their opener. Here’s a few

    @ Philly. Thurs Night coronation. If you wanna be the best, you gotta beat the best. This will be like when Rocky wanted to fight Drago in Russia
     
     vs DET. Yeah, I know, div opponents normally don’t play ea other ‘til late season, but c’mon now. BJ and the Loins are already trash talking ea other. This might be too enticing to pass for the opener 
     
    @ Wash. Caleb-v-Daniels will always be a thing. Let’s just hope it’s an Elway-v-Marino thing and not a Ken O’Brien-v-Marino thing. What better way to exorcise Flus’ fail-Mary than this? Christen a new regime! Be awesome if the Pope attends and Bears win with their own Hail Mary. The internet would explode
     
    Home-v-Steelers. It’s Aaron “Darkness” Rodgers. Need I say more? 
     
    ‘C’mon Butch, gimme an easy “4” at closing time! ‘

    Butch pulls out ole faded Roledex… 
    Well, dealer’s choice:  
    Home-v-Gmen, Browns or Saints

    Opening up against a ‘weak’ opponent def has its perks – namely, building confidence and a winning culture from game 1 [theoretically]

    However, we’ve seen dogs score major upsets in week 1. Last year the Pats beat the Bengals at Cincy 16-10. How many lost mula on that one?

    I know the 9ers ended up playing with a backup bust QB in a monsoon; still, they were heavily favored and on paper shoulda beat the Bears week 1 in ’22

    Sometimes those big dogs aren’t ready for the chihuahua bite!

    So who you want as Bears’ opener?