_{Written by GP}

If you wanted a schedule that Dan Campbell can dance a little jig to, you just got it. Bears get stiffed harder than Riley Reid on set.

The setup. Statistically, previous year schedule is almost useless as a predictor: from 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team’s actual Strength of Schedule [SOS] was explained by opponents’ prior-year records; this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years. Warren Sharp‘s preferred method swaps in 2026 Vegas projected win totals, which captures coaching changes, roster turnover, and quarterback movement that last year’s record can’t see. The Patriots-from-4-13-to-14-3 problem is something the NFL actually looked at.

For the NFC North, both methods agree on the bookends and disagree on the middle.

The Traditional Numbers (2025 Opponent W%)

Bears .550 (hardest in NFL) … T3. Packers .538 … 11. Vikings .519 … 27. Lions .467 – Easiest: New York Giants

Three NFC North teams in the top eleven hardest, with the Lions out at 27th — that’s a direct artifact of every team in the division finishing 2025 above .500, which forces three of them into first-place rotations against tough opponents while the lone team without that penalty (Detroit, who didn’t win the division) catches HUGE breaks. There are two big reasons why the Bears’ schedule is so difficult: Strength of schedule is based on your opponents’ record from last season and every team in the NFC North finished with a winning record last year which had never happened in my lifetime before.

Where does it get interesting?

Lions: #1 easiest schedule in the NFC-N. Using current Vegas win totals as our measure, the Lions stand out as having the easiest schedule. By a lot.

Bears: 6th-hardest in the NFL overall. Slightly less brutal than the traditional method suggests but still top-quartile-tough.

Packers and Vikings: Neither is at the extreme of Sharp’s list — they’re middle-of-pack-to-tough, but lighter than the .538 and .519 traditional numbers would suggest, because Sharp’s model downgrades opponents who lost their QB or coach over the offseason.

What’s Actually Driving the Bears’ Pain

The Bears’ slate is heavy by either measure because of where they finished and where they sit in the rotation.

The Chicago Bears wind up with the hardest schedule in the NFL based on being the NFC North division champion – which automatically puts them on a collision course with the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles. But they also have to face the ENTIRE AFC East this year which means going up against the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Their interconference opponent for 2026 is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

That’s already five games against teams that had at least 11 wins last year :

Seahawks (Super Bowl LX winners), Eagles, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars — before you count the two each against Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota.

After winning the NFC North for the first time since 2020, the Bears were handed the league’s sixth-hardest schedule in ’26. They’ll open the season on the road to take on the Panthers in Week 1 before a seven-week stretch that features contests against the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Patriots. The back-half of their schedule, meanwhile, doesn’t provide much relief, as they’ll take on the Bills, Green Bay, the Lions and Minnesota over the final four weeks of the campaign.

Why the Lions Get the Pansy Run

Detroit drops to 27th in traditional SOS and #1-easiest in projected because they finished below the rest of the division in 2025 and drew the corresponding place-based rotation. They get the easier 2025-record cross-conference draws and avoid a first-place schedule’s extra teeth. The projected metric likes them even more because they’re forecast to play the highest pace of teams Vegas thinks won’t be very good in 2026.

The Verdict

Hardest: Bears, by a whole fucking lot. They’re #1 traditional and 6th projected — the only NFC North team in the top ten on both lists. The first six weeks include road trips to Carolina, Buffalo, and Washington, plus Philadelphia and Seattle at home, and the final four feature Bills/Packers/Lions/Vikings. There is no soft stretch. Harder the RoK in Vietnam.

Easiest: Lions, by a mile. They’re 27th traditional and #1 projected — the only NFC North team comfortably in the bottom ten on either list, and the only team in the entire NFL with the #1 projected ranking for ease of schedule.

Middle: Packers lean tough (T-3rd traditional, middle projected), Vikings lean middle (11th traditional, middle projected). Packers harder than Vikings.

And, of course, every NFC North team plays every other one twice, so a meaningful chunk of each team’s SOS is shared. The differentiation comes from cross-conference and place-based rotations — and that’s where the Bears got incredibly punished for winning the division and the Lions got rewarded for not.