Da Dos

Tag: QB

  • Super Bowl LX

    Super Bowl LX

    I rememeber that ’18 NFL Draft when CLE selected Baker Mayfield #1 overall, the Jets selected Sam Darnold #3 overall, while the Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7 banking that he’d be another good ‘project’ like Carson Wentz for the Eagles [‘ 17 Wentz threw for 33TDs/7ints and 101.9 passer rating].

    Incidentally, the Bears drafted Roq at #8, Bills drafted Edmunds at #16, Panthers drafted DJ Moore at #24 and Hippy’s adopted son Chosen Rosen went #11 overall.

    I remember thinking at the time that both Mayfield and Darnold were ‘can’t miss.’
    I loved Mayfield’s mojo to turn around the factory of sadness. I thought Darnold’s steady demeanor and playing in L.A. [USC] suited him well for the intense NY market.

    Yet somehow, the Browns and Jets still broke them.

    I was a bit more on the fence about Josh Allen. Wentz recency bias made me think big physical ‘projects’ from small schools could work, but man, that’s a gamble [as the Eagles found out].

    I wasn’t too sold on Rosen. To me, he was sorta the JJ McCarthy of that draft. Meh.

    However, both Mayfield and Darnold “busting” really made me self-evaluate. How could I have been so wrong on both? I didn’t expect either to be sure-fire HOFers, but BUSTS?

    I mean one, yeah, stats say QBs are 50/50, but BOTH. Maybe draft picks are no better than taking a spin at the Roulette table.

    Well, as it turns out, both Mayfield and Darnold only needed to join functional teams.

    Then it hit me. I was wrong, but not in the way I imagined.

    I erred in believing in that the philosophy of “pick yourself up by your bootstrap” still applies to QBs. It obviously does NOT.

    Like much in life, surrounding greatly impacts results.

    This is an old debate: nature-v-nurture.

    But it’s not binary.

    Browns and Jets have been forever dysfunctional, and as Florio refrains, “dysfunctional teams do dysfunctional things” and this can be macro: owners, GMs, coaches, draft…to micro: developing players, ESP QBs.

    Being dysfunctional isn’t a death sentence either. The Bengals, Lions and Bears have also been a laughing stock for 40+ years, yet they seemed to have dug themselves out of the Browns/Jets 9th circle of hell.

    I was mistaken in assuming that a single individual, even a QB, can simply will himself to be an Ubermench regardless of circumstance.

    One might be tempted to retort, “Well, Brady and Mahomes would’ve been great no matter.” Really? What if the Chris Palmer Browns drafted Brady and the Pace-Nagy Bears drafted Mahomes?

    This works the other way as well.
    A successful organization doesn’t automatically generate HOF QBs like some GPT prompt.

    Reid in KC could only go so far with Alex Smith. The same Pats who won 6 SBs drafted Mac Jones. 9ers traded the house for Trey Lance.

    Oops!

    I suppose this is a long-winded way of stating the obvious:

    It takes both nature+nurture=success.

    The formula isn’t written in stone. Who knows about the ratio. 80% to 20% or vice versa.

    But USUALLY [outliers do exist] it is some ratio of both.

    This SB marks the first time two top 5 [drafted] QBs square-off. That’s a remarkable stat given the ENORMOUS amount of resources that go into finding a franchise QB.

    It illustrates how fickle the whole process really is, how maybe one seemingly minute factor could set off a whole butterfly effect.

    Terry Bradshaw’s life literally came down to a coin flip. Steelers won. They drafted Bradshaw, and after a disastrous start he rebounded to win 4 SBs.

    The Bears traded their #2 to the Green Bay Packers for veterans Lee Roy Caffey, Bob Hyland, and Elijah Pitts translating to squat.

    If Bears win coinflip and draft Bradshaw…well, you elder-fans tell me if it results in 4 SBs…

    Overtime:

    Butch’s SB pick.

    I think I’ve been right in every pick [except in Bears over Rams, but I can live with that].

    I think SEA’s D is simply too dominant to allow such a young QB (who’s been a playoff TO machine) to excel.

    When a D has a legit nickname [The Darkside], you know they’re good!

    There’s a risk that Darnold will Darnold, but thus far he really hasn’t [outside Rams]. If he starts seeing ghosts again, it’ll be one epic chokejob.

    On top of that, SEA has a great one-two punch at HB, plus a dangerous returner and solid specials with sound coaching.

    The Pats’ Dline is real, but how tight will the refs call this game? A lot of times they allow WAAAAY more holding [and PIs] than usual in the SB, which may mitigate the Pats’ biggest advantage.

    As such, I predict a slow, tight game, but with huge SEA momentum surges which will be too much for a relatively inexperienced Pats’ team.

    Darnold gets his ultimate vindication while the Queens are stuck with #9 watching the SB in a Cancun bar….

  • Tim Jenkins Reviews Caleb v Puke WK14

    Tim Jenkins Reviews Caleb v Puke WK14

    Haven’t shared some Tim Jenkins Caleb Williams’ breakdown in a spell. Mostly ’cause Caleb gets sliced and diced more than a frog in a Jr. High Science class.

    But here is a thorough analysis of every Caleb throw vs Puke.

    One. It’s a bit frustrating seeing Caleb throw absolute perfect balls to Cole Kmet on the scramble drill, then Olamide Zaccheaus for that TD with a CB draped all over him; then the very first clip Caleb sails badly, or that last INT to lose the game.

    Caleb is at 52.5% for the last 5 games which is actually LOWER than Kyle Orton [in 2nd yr].

    I keep bringing up Kyle Orton on purpose since I don’t think that’s necessarily an insult. He finished his rook campaign at 51.6%, but more importantly, with a 10-5 record showing that a QB can win as a ‘game manager’. Problem is Orton’s D was much better than this ’25 D. OTOH, ’25 Bears’ D is leading the league in TOs, so it’s basically a wash.

    However, unlike Orton, Caleb has a much livelier arm and mobility which has translated into less sacks and more explosive plays. Needless to say, Caleb just needs to ball from the opening bell. We keep waiting for it to happen, but what if this is just who Caleb is?

    Two: Pure progression vs Post/Pre-Snap Look [PSL]:

    Kurt Warner is a PSL believer. He advocates that the best QBs are the smartest QBs [in the pocket], and that the best way to outsmart a D is to actually diagnose it and take advantage of its particular flaws.

    For instance, we all know that a big hole in the Cover 2 is a TE right up the seam [unless you have Urlacher as the MLB]. So, that TE becomes a QB’s #1 option.

    In a pure progression the #1, #2, #3, etc are already predetermined coming out of the huddle. So it doesn’t matter if they’re playing Cover 2, Cover 3, the reads are locked in.

    Jenkins illustrates the pros and cons of using either in his video.

    Pro. When the PS look is super muddy [Think Dennis Allen on 3rd downs]. 8 defenders all lined up close to LOS, a QB has no clue if they’re going zero blitz, some blitz, falling back to Cover 2, etc

    So, pure progression simplifies it since it barely matters what the D is doing. 1, 2, 3 already baked into the play.

    Con. That final Caleb INT where #1 seemed to be Kmet when maybe it could’ve been altered at the line to DJ [or just straight sprint?]. There’s plenty of other examples in this video alone. How many times throughout the season have we been screaming, “Look, he’s open!” Yes, but maybe he was the 4rth option while Caleb was running for his life.

    “Predetermined” is the keyword. From the outside it looks like Caleb just locks onto a target, but maybe that’s what BJ WANTS him to do [for now].

    Either way, Jenkins does an excellent job of showcasing the debate as well as explaining some of Ben Johnson’s playcalling logic.

  • When a win is more than a win, or is it?

    When a win is more than a win, or is it?

    By reg Clockwork Orange and Blue

    Aaron Rodgers has a career 25-5 record against the Bears. He famously declared his ownership of the Bears following the Rodgers Packers’ penultimate victory against the Beloved in Rodgers’ final year with the team. Nothing tastes as sweet, or devastates as much, than a win or loss against the Packers, and this was especially true with Rodgers at the helm. And now in week 12 of an improbable 7-3 season, the Bears are faced with an aging Rodgers on a different team.

    8-3 is a mark that would put the Bears one win closer to the magic number of 10, a total that would certainly catapult them to the playoffs and mark the start of what could be the Bears team we have all been thirsting for – one that wins games not in spite but because of their offense and quarterback. Are all wins equal? Do we dare now move the goalposts from “any win is a good win”?

    With Rodgers suffering (my god, I hope he is suffering) a broken left wrist and marked as questionable to play on Sunday, do we hope to see him in the pocket, knowing full well his ownership, his football voodoo, over the Bears?

    You and I know he wants to be dancing out of the pocket after a near sack, twisting and galloping with Bears in pursuit from behind while he angles toward the flat, and with a flick of the wrist, sending a perfect lofted spiral into the waiting hands of a streaking receiver, breaking Chicago’s spirit once more. You just know he wants to do that one last time, to punctuate his career with a defining statement: “I will forever own you.”

    On the flip side, even though he is not with Green Bay, what would be sweeter than to see Rodgers rolling in agony on the Soldier Field turf after releasing a lame duck following a brutal full frontal blow, a ball that flutters gently down into the hands of a waiting safety who then speeds by the scene of the crime and all eyes are not on the motionless Rodgers, but on the celebration in the end zone, the final score that ends both the game and Rodgers’ career.

    Do you take that chance with Rodgers, knowing it could take you back to the heartbreak of the last 20 years, but also knowing that you could find yourself with a real reason to say “this Bears team is different and for real”? Or would you rather not face that prospect and see Mason Rudolph under center, knowing the chances for victory are that much greater. How badly do you want to reach 10 wins – are you a pragmatist or a romantic?

    Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are the quintessential pragmatists. It is why he is where he is in his 19th season, having never suffered a losing season, yet only winning a single Super Bowl. Do we want to be the Steelers? Would you be happy if Ben Johnson’s career mirrored Tomlin’s?

    I would not. I am a Romantic, an Idealist, and I have an inkling that Ben Johnson is too. Does he enjoy the wins? Yes. he certainly does. But in his decisions, I do not see Tomlin, or Lovie. I see a man driven by his ideals. He knows what he wants and he knows what he wants to see. He is a man who will not just be satisfied with a .600 winning percentage and a long career. He wants to feel the adrenaline of a win without excuses.

    He wants to beat Rodgers.

    And so do I.

  • Caleb Concern

    Caleb Concern

    After watching the MNF opener vs Vikings, I can only quote The Irishman, “I’m more than a little concerned.”

    While plenty of blame can go around, the loudest 5 alarm fire was definitely Caleb as once more he wilted; in contrast, JJ McCarthy started off shaky, but literally gathered his Olinemen, then mounted a comeback as Caleb flailed.

    I won’t rehash the trauma. We’re all in a safe place now. Also, TBH, I didn’t really have to watch the All-22 to know what went wrong with Caleb; still, I thought it might reveal some details I may have missed initially.

    “All Things QBs” with Tim Jenkins masterfully breaks down every Caleb throw.

    Jenkins reinforces what we already talked about in the last thread ad nauseum.

    1. Caleb isn’t throwing in rhythm
    2. Caleb’s not seeing the open receivers
    3. Even if he sees them, he’s not pulling the trigger.
    4. If he does pull the trigger, the accuracy’s ‘manic’.

    And that’s when the Oline doesn’t allow pressure, which it did especially Dalman and Jackson.

    Jenkins observed that Caleb appears to struggle throwing to his left [wasn’t that McNowns’ downfall?]; He shows it’s tied to his feet and how wide he’s opening his shoulders. Ironically when Caleb scrambles, these mechanical issues don’t usually surface, so he may be a better scrambling QB than pocket at this stage.

    Another pundit put it another way, think it was Biggsy, ‘Caleb’s accuracy is worrying. In baseball terms, it’s not just that the pitch is off, but that it’s entirely out of the batter’s box.’ This might help explain his lack of INTs – neither the receiver nor CB have a shot. Such errancy robs the O of YAC [hitting in stride] and cheap pass-interferences on top of, ya know, COMPLETIONS, 1st downs, TDs…

    Tweets.

  • Critiquing Caleb, Part 1

    Critiquing Caleb, Part 1

    Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

    Preamble:

    “We are what we habitually do; therefore, excellence is a habit” – Aristotle

    A father took his young protege son to get taught by a master. “He’s great now. I can imagine how much better he’ll be after the master’s tutelage”
    The protege played for the master.
    “You undeniably play well, but alas, I cannot help you”
    The father, shocked, inquired, “Why?”
    “His technique is beyond repair”

    “Cutler was ruined before he even entered the NFL. Running for his life on a weekly basis at Vandy ingrained terrible habits he never unlearned.
    He was throwing from his back foot ‘til his very last NFL game” – a quote I always remembered back when the Jay debate was raging

    It’s OTAs, and the circle-jerkathon is in full force. We already got the spunky 7th rounder from Rutgers. Now all we need for the annual Bears’ summer is some lil known try-hard to win the Joe Anderson Trophy

    So it’s important to keep everything in perspective without rose-tinted glasses. Get past all the Ben Johnson honeymoon bouquets, FA stars and draft ‘studs’…

    This season will MOSTLY depend on the most vital position in all of sports:

    Quarterback

    It’s hard to quantify where great coaching ends and great QBing begins. Belichick/Brady make a fascinating study. However, I do believe that a superb coach, like a good parent, master or teacher can make a difference IF the learner is caught early.

    As Frederick Douglass once expressed, “It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men.”

    The #1 question for the foreseeable Bears’ future:

    Is Caleb broken beyond repair already or can Ben Johnson still build him up?

    Greg Cosell, Senior Producer at NFL Films, wonders this very question

    Few points from the vid

    – Pocket awareness

    “NFL goes back years and years, and often guys who get sacked a lot in college – who tend to retreat backwards – don’t do well”

    “Shadeur Sanders retreats a lot too. It might be innate. A longtime coach said that’s going to be really hard to fix”

    [Notice how all, Cutler, Caleb and Shadeur, played behind porous college olines? Does this create irreversible “happy feet” esp if they are thrown into a similar setup in the NFL which only reinforces it?]

    ‘Often QBs create their own sacks. Feel pressure that isn’t there. I don’t know if you can teach a QB to hang in the pocket and hit a receiver with defenders barreling down’

    – Assessing Ds [the Kurt Warner angle]

    ‘In the NFL it can’t be pure progression [where the D almost doesn’t matter]. In the NFL knowing how the D lines up is a BIG factor, and it’s hard to diagnose a D if there’s only 4 seconds on the clock’

    Those are two YUGE areas Caleb MUST solve, and quick. The third I would add is consistency
    Caleb Williams creates many ‘wow’ plays. But so did Jay Cutler
    Then the next play he throws it right into the gut of a DT or 4 INTs to DeAngelo Hall
    Rex Grossman won NFC Offensive Player of September, and look how that ended…

    Can’t win a SB like that
    Caleb must show up for the first 3 QTRs

    On the bright side, Cossell asserts BJ will at least help Caleb unlike the previous regime:

    ‘Ben Johnson does a great job of creating separation to make it easier for QBs
    [think prime GB with Rodgers when Jordy Nelson and gang ran free on crossing routes]

    But in the end your kid has to swim; your kid has to ride down the hill without training wheels; your kid has to drive on his own with his buddies acting like maniacs…

    As Caleb must himself ascend to that near mythic and ever elusive ‘generational QB’ and not flatline into another Bad Rex or Smoking Jay

  • Can’t Always Get What You Want…

    Can’t Always Get What You Want…

    So, I was going to write something about the schedule, then this drops

    You can hear the details and make up your own mind. Some thoughts:

    1. This doesn’t shock me. Why WOULD any QB want to come to CHI?
      Carl Williams, Caleb’s dad, was right, CHI is “where QBs go to die”
      While keeping Flus [and Poles] and hiring Waldo only furthers his case
      As MB muttered in disgust on his way out “Bears are Browns North”
    2. Caleb’s dad made some sound points about the rook CBA deal, but those old enough to remember the good ole days of paying Jamarcus “Purple Drank” Russell, Ryan Leaf, and Jeff George more $ than established vets know why a restructure was desperately needed, and I like it. Carl Williams may believe his son is “can’t miss” but Caleb hasn’t proven shit yet, and nearly everyone already accepts he is the 2nd best QB in that class [maybe even 3rd or 4rth for some NE and DEN fans]. For all we know, Bears drafted a slightly better Fields, but at least Caleb is not getting paid like Dak Prescott [$60M/yr. Think of all those FAs Poles can’t sign if that were the case]
    3. I do wonder if college QBs can jump to the CFL for a year, sidestep the draft altogether, then choose any NFL team the following season. In this scenario, maybe Archie Manning can opt to go to CFL for a year [as opposed to staying at Texas], ghost the draft, then pick a team in ‘27. Albeit I suspect the NFL could simply throw Archie back into the ’27 draft. Not sure about the fine print here. That could be its own article with lots of subsections. NIL further complicates the issue; still, this might be the future
    4. On earth 2, the Bears hire Klingsbury, and maybe Flus sticks around. We all know how this would end though. Spoiler alert, BADLY. It’s better the Bears vaporized instantly from a nuke than dying slowly over years from radiation poison

    This is an odd situation. Carl Williams was correct, but what he couldn’t have possibly foreseen was that the Flus-Waldo meltdown may have been better for his son in the LONG run. It absolutely ruined Caleb’s rookie campaign, but look now. Rebuilt Oline. Plenty of weapons. The best OC available hired to HC. A proven DC, Def and Specials

    Would Caleb and his dad still prefer to be in Minny or DC?

    Doubtful. At worst, it’s about a wash, and one can seriously contend that the Bears have a brighter future

    “You can’t always get what you want
    But if you try sometimes, well, you just might find
    You get what you need     ”

    This is a lot like life. Sometimes, you get dealt an awful hand, and somehow it works out for the better

    My mom was unjustly fired from a job so her then boss could hire his niece. He himself later got canned for that, but didn’t help my mom at the time struggling as a single parent to pay her mortgage and raise two kids. She lost the house. She began smoking again. Almost began drinking again. I, a mopey teen, was completely oblivious to the stress, but it must’ve been immense; however, at her new transitional job as a roach-hotel receptionist, she met a young miner with long 70’s Pink Floyd hair. That miner ended up being my step-dad.

    How did my step-dad stumble into that roach-hotel? Well, he recently moved from out of state. Him and his bud in their infinite wisdom decided to rent a cheap hotel by skid-row to save $. Apparently, they didn’t get the memo that ppl who look like them shouldn’t be walking around skid-row at 3am [after shift]. He was jumped by 3 guys trying to jack his wallet, but his jeans were so tight, and he fought back so hard, they couldn’t squeeze his wallet out [Wrangler commercial here]. They slunk back to the broken urinated streets

    His friend took one look at him walking in the door, “We’re out of here”

    So they ‘upgraded’ to a slightly better hotel away from skid-row where my mom just happened to work. Ding-Ding. He checked in, likely still sporting some fading shiners, fat lip, and lumpy skull… locked eyes, and that was that; they’ve been married ever since. House, chihuahuas, the whole 9
    Two wrongs literally made a right

    Of course at the time my mom would have chosen to NOT get terminated and lose the house. Naturally, my step-dad would have opted to NOT get beat the fuck up. Both happened, and here we are

    Here we are, Caleb. Make the most of it

    Transcend tragedy