Da Dos

Tag: Preview

  • Rams@Bears Divisional RD Preview

    Rams@Bears Divisional RD Preview

    Well, I suppose I could write-up the usual musts:

    1. Stop the run
    2. Get the run game going
    3. Control TOP
    4. Win TO & Redzone battle
    5. Play a COMPLETE game

    Well, we can just trash any traditional script.

    ’25 Bounceback Bears defy all standard winning “formulas.”

    Take these ridicules facts:
    —
    Kirsten Tanis@Kirsten_Tanis1

    Per ESPN, Bears had a 13.5% chance before the season to win the NFC North.

    After starting 0-2 in the division, odds plummeted to the low single digits.

    Tonight, they earned the crown. 👑🐻⬇️

    Against all odds, the Chicago Bears kept the faith & kept fighting until it was theirs!
    —
    Jacob Infante

    Since the NFL merger in 1970, just 43 of 422 teams made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, a percentage of just 10.1%
    —
    Caleb on that 4th & 8 throw of the year: Running 13.2 MPH to his non-dominant side 35.3 yards in the air

    —
    Bears vs Packers this season:

    Offensive plays with the lead
    Packers: 106
    Bears: 0
    —
    The Bears are 3-3 when down 10+ points in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter this season.

    The rest of the NFL is 3-158

    —

    Bears have won 6 games trailing inside 2 minutes. That’s impossible – Collinsworth
    —
    Notable #Bears win percentages in key games they’ve won this year:

    • Raiders: 19.3%
    • Commanders: 15.9%
    • Bengals: 14.1%
    • Giants: 4.0%
    • Vikings: 24.9%
    • Packers: 3.0%

    The probability of all those games being wins? 0.0001295%.

    Raiders needed a blocked FG
    Commies needed a fumbled snap/recovery
    Bengals score over 42 points + Loveland
    Gmen down 20-10 with 4:00
    Vikings down 16-17 with :50 left + Durvernay KR
    Packers onside recovery, TD, 2 point etc
    Packers III 25 points in 4rth QTR

    Wish Data was around to quan the maths, but needless to say, Bounceback Bears have defied all logic. There’s a word for that – magical. Christian Watson expressed the improbable season best.

    These Bears will find a way. The Bears are the living avatars of “Just win, baby.” How many game day threads began “Same Ole Bears” and ended “How the F did they pull that one off!”

    By now it’s a feature, not bug. Granted, that doesn’t make the Bears invincible. They were home underdogs vs Packers, now Rams, and likely will be the dogs until confetti drops on their heads; however, their “magic” fizzled out vs Ravens, 9ers, Lions[2X], and NEARLY to 6 other teams.

    So here are some pertinent deets vs the Rams specifically.

    It should be noted that Matthew Stafford [whose thumb may or may not be INJed] was born in FL, grew up in TX, played at GA, then for domed Lions and now sunny LAR.
    He has struggled in cold weather games, and has a penchant for self-destructing a la Jared Goff. Did you watch the final Aaron Rodgers’ game? Old QBs don’t like being hit, and they REALLY don’t like being broken in half like an icicle when it’s freezing, snowy and windy.

    In general, domed teams this past decade are 1-15 in the playoffs when kickoff was at/below 40°

    That being said, what WOULD worry me is that Goffesque QBs can dissect this “Bend Don’t Break D.” Goff did it twice. Brock Purdy once. Shit, even Grandpa Joe Flacco lit them up for 42 and had all of us sniffing glue on that final drive that ultimately floundered.

    Savvy vet QBs [and two efficient backups] have made this defense look terrible, and they weren’t coached by Sean McVay.

    Rams also roster lethal talent: Nacua, top 3 TE combo, top 3 HB combo, Verse, Young…

    So none of us should bet our mortgage down quite yet.

    Jeff’s famous line was “Why Do I like the Bears? I always like the Bears.”

    Well, these Bears convert even haters into fans like Rocky-v-Drago.

    Why do I like the Bears? I don’t. I LOVE these Bears, and I Bearlieve.

    🐻⬇️

  • Packers@Bears III. Playoffs, baby!

    Packers@Bears III. Playoffs, baby!

    So I got a little busy this week, but couldn’t think of anything awe-inspiring to write about the matchup.

    A major part of that is because this is the THIRD time the Bears have faced Green Bay this season.

    Divisional games are always a toss-up. That’s how you end up with Commanders defeating the Eagles last week, or the Bears prevailing against the Packers’ in the ’24 finale. Then you add this is the 3rd time [in 5 weeks] playing against one another in the same season, and voila, near coin-flip.

    As they say, familiarity breeds contempt, and you know the Packers are still fuming over the dramatic loss, so they are going to come out brawling.

    An interesting factoid though which caught my eye.

    How many points have the Bears scored against the Packers in the first half this season?

    If your answer is 3, you are sadly correct.

    Clearly, the Bears can NOT sputter out of the gate this time around.

    We saw what a slow start does to the crowd in the final Lions’ game; it totally nullifies the homefield advantage, NVM breaking any offensive rhythm while exhausting the D and sapping any psychological mojo.

    Bears are not a juggernaut. Regardless of record, they are the underdogs [Vegas agrees: Pack are -1.5 road favorites]. They are young with little to no playoff experience. Difference makers like Rome, Gordon and Ozzy will be playing through INJs.

    Soldier Field forecast predicts 9°F, snow and possibly 39 MPH wind!

    Halas has heavily invested in transforming the Bears into a modern offensive-minded team. Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and crew simply cannot afford to cede an entire first half or else “The Iceman” is going to mean starting cold.

    The Chicago media-machine has conjectured what has gone wrong early. Some surmise it is BJ’s initial opening script, specifically that the NFL has figured it out. Some theorize Caleb is too unfocused and erratic when the game is not on the line. Clay Harbor pushes that it simply comes down to execution and eliminating mistakes, especially on 3rd down; he further elaborates the defense “bending” but not breaking for 8 minutes straight ices the offense. It is going to be hard to get into any sort of rhythm if Caleb, Swift and Burden are thawing in their snowy trench coats through two commercial breaks.

    Whatever the issue for slow first halves, the Bears MUST solve it, PRONTO.

    The easiest solution would be for the Bears’ oline to open up lanes for Swift and Monangai to win TOP and keep a shaky D off the field.

    No reason Bears can not start hot either. The Packers’ D in the past 4 games[w/out Parsons] has imploded:

    Which brings me to why I struggled a bit with a preview since I am going to sound cliche:

    The team that wins the trenches, turnover and redzone battle will likely prevail.

    This applies to the defense as well. They cannot for the life of them get off on 3rd down, which allows for QTR long, soul-sucking drives.

    They began [up to Nov] the season top 6ish in opponent third-down conversion. They finished like 22nd [allowing around 40.8% success], and we have witnessed this downward trend in the two losses against SF and DET.

    It does not even seem to matter what Dennis Allen calls either. He mostly played zone vs SF, and they lit that D up for 42 points.

    He mostly played man vs DET, and they lost the TOP battle (19:12-10:48) while their WRs abused Wright, CJ and JJ to 7.7 yards per attempt.

    So what is the answer?

    Well, again, this is going to sound trite.

    Bear players must rise to occasion. The roster must overperform. Sweat, Booker, Jarrett, Brisker, Wright…gotta play out of their minds.

    An interviewer [Manziel] once tried to blame Rex Grossman for the SB loss, but Urlacher was having none of it. Urlacher pointed out that the Colts racked up 250 yards passing and a mind-boggling 190 yards rushing when season long that ’06 D gave up 300 TOTAL. Fans often forget that part.

    In other words: The ’06 Bears’ SB D underperformed.

    [Granted, no MB or Tharris hurt]

    That cannot happen this time around. The Bears must not just meet but SURPASS their potential.

    Since this is a trilogy, think Rocky.

    I compared the ’25 Bears to the both the SB winning ’08 Giants and ’10 Saints.

    In short, both teams “overachieved”.

    Racking up key TOs, clutch moments, and bold decisions. That is how a team overcomes a talent deficit.

    Much like in life, the Bears gotta be the BEST versions of themselves on this unexpected playoff run because as Urlacher relayed, nothing is guaranteed going forward.

    So Godspeed, Chicago Bears.

    For once in 40 years shatter our cynical ‘same ole Bears‘ mantra.

    Rewire the Favre-Rodgers trauma and make us once again BEARLIEVE.

    Bear Down and FTP!

  • Bear-lieve!

    Bear-lieve!

    I was going to write up another in-depth Packer Preview, but the Bears just played them not two weeks ago, so nothing much has changed statistically.

    That being said, much has changed personnel-wise, specifically, the INJ report.

    As of Thurs night, here’s the Packers-Bears’ INJ report:

    Packers Final Injury Report
    Out: RB MarShawn Lloyd (calf/hamstring), TE Josh Whyle (concussion), G John Williams (back).[Parsons – OUT OUT]

    Questionable: RB Chris Brooks (chest), DE Brenton Cox (groin), DE Kingsley Enagbare (illness), RB Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle), T/G Darian Kinnard (neck), DE Collin Oliver (hamstring), RT Zach Tom (knee/back), WR Christian Watson (chest/shoulder), WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), S Evan Williams (knee).

    Note: Oliver, Cox and John Williams have been designated for return from injured reserve and are within their 21-day practice windows.

    Bears Final Injury Report
    Out: WR Luther Burden III (ankle), WR Rome Odunze (foot), LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (hamstring).

    Questionable: DE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (personal), LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin), TE Cole Kmet (ankle/knee), RB D’Andre Swift (groin).

    Note: Edmunds has been designated for return from injured reserve and is within his 21-day practice window

    Naturally, Micah Parsons [ACL tear, 9 month recovery] out plus Christian Watson and Josh Jacobs as Questionable are tremendous losses. Even if Jacobs and Watson suit up, they can’t possibly be anywhere close to 100%.

    Bears without Rome/Burden sucks as well, but Bears are a run first, 12 personnel team at heart, so all Zaccheus, Duvernay and Walker have to do is stay upright, block, and catch occasionally.

    I think BJ will be smart enough to target DJ, Loveland and Kmet on key downs.

    What I really want to write about though is that for the first time since maaaybe ’18, I believe the Bears can finish – not just with a winning record, or Wild Card appearance – but with a SB. The ’25 Bears can win it all.

    Yes – all. The whole enchilada. The whole 9 yards. The entire shebang or whatever other phrases exist for them winning a SB.

    It’s a confluence of many factors.

    1. No real super-team this season.
    Week in, week out, I have witnessed playoff teams ‘upset’. Whether it’s Pats losing to Raiders, Pack losing to Browns, Rams losing to Panthers, Bills losing to Dolphins, Broncos losing to Chargers, etc it’s one of those years where seemingly any team can indeed beat any favorite any given Sunday. So why not us?

    2. Bears find different ways to win in crunch time.

    Whether it’s a QB scramble, a big KR, a blocked FG, a forced fumble, an incredible INT, improbable throw/catch, or bruising runs to close, the Bears just get ‘er done. By now, they simply BELIEVE they will win. How barely matters. They’ve essentially been in playoff mode since week 3 [Cowboys], so a little pressure isn’t going to phase them.

    3. Bears’ formula wins late season.

    Don’t know if you noticed, but it’s getting pretty freaking freezing out there.
    Luckily, the Bears are a run first team. The 1-2 punch of Swift-Monangai is now spoken in the same breath as Gibbs-Monty, Kyle Williams-Corum while The Oline ranks top 5 on many sites. And, oh yeah, they have two great blocking TEs in Kmet/Loveland.

    Caleb Williams is arguably the best scrambler too which I appreciate even more after watching Stafford-v-Darnold on TNF.

    Another part of the Bears’ formula is they don’t turn it over much.

    Caleb rarely throws INTs, actually breaking the record for fewest INTs through the first 1K passing attempts. Unlike his predecessors , [looking at you Smoking Jay], he rarely gets strip-sacked [or even sacked].

    Swift also doesn’t fumble much while Monangai at Rutgers attempted 669 rushes with ZERO fumbles.

    So Bears don’t give away many freebies.

    Which dovetails well with CREATING defensive TOs. #1 in NFL with 20, and #2 Texans aren’t even close with 14.

    I, like many, was initially skeptical about Bears’ D keeping it up. As they say, TOs are unpredictable – not a good bet; nevertheless, Dennis Allen has made it just that – bankable. Somehow, someway, that D forces INTs/Fumbles, and they create momentum to win especially in hostile environments.

    So, Bears…

    Run fiercely+ block well+ limit TOs+ Force TOs= Wins

    Oh, and they’re clutch!

    4. Bears have elite coaching.

    Wow. Can’t believe I just typed that. I’m having an out of body experience just reading that aloud.

    Bears have elite coaching for the first time since Zubas were cool; I TRUST our brains outsmarting theirs.

    The easy example is Ben Johnson which doesn’t need much explaining, but Dennis Allen may actually be doing a superior job at DC given what he has.

    It’s not just them either. Look at the incredible turnaround of the Oline in just one season. Gotta give props to Dan Roushar for that.

    The secondary is playing out of its mind, big pat of the back [to future HC] Al Harris.

    Def Line coach Jeremy Garrett may even be sneaky good.
    Sweat has quietly notched 8.5 sacks, Booker in 7 games has 3 sacks, while the run D has recovered from being a sieve early season.

    via Matt Marton/Imagn
    I don’t really believe in ‘moral losses’, but sometimes, they do happen. After Philly, many still claimed Bears were “fun frauds”. However, after nearly stealing a win at Lambeau, the league no longer scoffs.

    I compared this team to both the SB winning Saints and Gmen; the Gmen in their finale took the Pats to the limit, ultimately losing 38-35.

    Now you figure, ‘wow, tough loss. Gut punch and no way to lurch into the playoffs’, but it was quite the opposite.

    “I know what everybody wrote and what everybody said we should do (against the Pats) and all the experts. Well, these are the same people that said we weren’t going to be in this position (10-6) and be in the playoffs, so we really don’t care what they say…[Antonio] Pierce [continued]. “All the experts supposedly said we were going to get beat by 20 or 30 points or whatever it was. That came down to the last couple minutes of the game.”

    “With that mentality, again we are going into a place where our backs are going to be against the wall, where we play our best. And I hope we can go out there and show it off.”

    Sound familiar?
    Let’s hope history repeats. No reason it can’t.

    Bearlieve.

    and FGB.

  • Browns@Bears WK15 Preview

    Browns@Bears WK15 Preview

    Can you believe only 4 games left?

    Browns, Pack, @9ers, home finale Lions, and that’s a wrap.

    Season has flown by, and we’re zooming into 2026. So savor it.

    Browns[+7.5]-v-Bears
    O/U 39.5 [Draftkings]

    If you’re feeling nostalgic and want to see one of the craziest comebacks of all-time, click here!

    By the numbers:

    This is going to be a cold AF game. Like Dante’s 9th circle of hell freezing. Could be windy too, so the passing game will likely suffer.

    That type of game should theoretically favor the Bears with their potent 1-2 HB punch while limiting Myles Garrett. However, Browns are no push-overs. Gotta remember they BEAT the Packers 13-10. I loved Quinshon Judkins in the draft and was hoping Poles could somehow steal him. He’s a 5’11, 220 pound hammer who runs a 4.48.

    Browns also now have a better QB than Flacco.

    I have caught some of Shadeur Sanders whenever I could because he piques my curiosity. I tell you what, when he has time, he can make plays.

    Shedeur Sanders vs the Titans:

    364 YARDS
    3 PASS TD
    1 RUSH TD
    23/42 CMP
    97.7 PASS RATING

    [Big Time Throw/ TO Worthy Plays]

    That being said, Shedeur’s depth of target is relatively low [screens]and his season long comp% is 52.4% [hey, finally a QB lower than Caleb!], so the key will be for Dennis Allen to find some way to pressure him. If Allen befuddles the rook, we could see a multiple INT game. If not, well, see above.

    Their defense is scary lead by this generation’s Julius Peppers.

    Myles Garrett already has 20 sacks! He needs 3 more vs Bears to break the all-time record of 22 [if I recall, Strahan got that with a little help from his buddy Favre]. Garrett’s record breaking campaign impresses more given the fact that the Browns were likely trailing in most games. Man, I hope Bears start recruiting him for next season!

    Garrett is also a beast against the run, so via con dios, Ozzy Trapilo. Their run D overall has limited explosive runs [11th best] but allowed 2 vs Titans while the Bears didn’t have a run play over 10 yds vs Pack, so this is anyone’s guess in freezing conditions.

    TLDR.

    Bears control run, TOP, with tactical Caleb strikes while pressuring Shedeur = WIN.

    *Cairo Santos doesn’t cuck it

    OVERTIME:

    We cover Caleb Williams a lot since QB is the most important position in all of sports, but we gotta give some laurels to what Dan Roushar is doing with that Oline.

    Our 2024 Oline was abject dogshit. Now it’s one of the top units in all the NFL. I don’t think I’ve ever experienced this dramatic turn around for a Bears unit in my lifetime.

    Here is Roushar’s former OT Terron Armstead talking about his coaching.

    If you’re wondering about Ozzy Trapilo specifically, here is an excellent breakdown of him thus far.

    Silliness:

  • Bears@Puke WK14 Preview

    Bears@Puke WK14 Preview

    Dec 7, GB. [Preview]
    Total O/U: 44.5
    Puke: -5.5 Favorites
    Sunday 4:25PM EA, Fox
    Booth: Kevin Burkhardt/Brady

    Bears: —————/Pack:
    PPG: 26.1 [8th] ——/ 24.5 [10th]
    PPG allowed: 25.6 [27th] /18.8 [4th]
    TO Margin: +17 [1st] /+4 [T-10th]
    3rd Dwn O: 43.9% [6th] /49.3% [1st]
    3rd Down D: 35.2% [7th] /38.5% [17th]

    As one can see, the teams are evenly matched. Nevertheless, the fact that the Bears are outscoring the Puke through 13 weeks boggles the mind. The biggest discrepancies are that the Bears’ D causes way more TOs but also allows more points.

    While the Packers’ D is avg in stopping 3rd downs but are a top 4 unit in preventing scores.

    So, it seems, as always, the Bears’ D must rely on creating TOs.

    I used to believe they were too fluky to count on, but Dennis Allen [much like ’16 Lovie] has made them a feature – not a bug.

    Keep in mind that the Eagles were #1 in NOT turning it over, yet the Bears still managed to literally pry the ball away on their staple Tush-Push as Byard racked-up another INT to lead the NFL. Bears’ D gets gashed, but by hook-or-crook, they pounce on the pigskin.

    Bears’ redzone O: 58.5% [T-15th] avg.
    Packers’ rz O: 67.4% [3rd] very potent

    Bears’ RZ D: 61% [26th]Need to create TOs
    Puke RZ D: 59.4% [21st] Could be shoot-out

    INJ reports. [Will be updated in comments]

    QB Tale of the Tape:
    Love:———Caleb
    67%-Comp%-58.1%
    2,794–YDs— 2,722
    19/3–TD/INT– 17/5
    164–Rush Yds 306
    0—–Rush TDs 3
    104.3-QB Rating 88.2

    Looks like shadowboxing. Their stats are eerily similar. While Love better than Caleb in comp% and passer rating, Caleb the superior runner, escape artist and off-kilter thrower. In addition, gotta factor-in that GB has spent 5 yrs cultivating Love, including learning from a HOFer from the bench, while Caleb is only in his 2nd year and already with his 4rth OC. I am a little surprised Love hasn’t thrown many INTs given that he has 11 of them in both ’23 and ’24. However, friendly reminder that coming into Black Friday, Jaylen Hurts only threw ONE INT, so Wright, Byard et al don’t give a damn about your stats.

    Run game:

    Obviously, the Bears own a big advantage here. Swift YPC=4.8 and Monangai=4.9 coming off a dominating performance vs a stout Eagles’ Dline

    That being said, the Pack cock-blocked Gibbs, keeping him at 3.4 YPC/68 Total while season long are limiting HBs to under 4.0 YPC, so it’ll be strength-vs-strength. Who is mas macho?

    I hope to gawd Ben Johnson sticks to the run and limits the shotgun formations. You don’t want Micah Parsons [12.5 sks] flying off the edge vs Ozzy Trapilo. As such, I expect lots of TE/HB chipping with a healthy dose of quick screens towards Parsons’ side.

    BJ was also cooking with the misdirections vs Philly. It totally slowed down Zach Baun and aggressive Philly D; added wrinkle, BJ has put enough “trick plays” on tape to make any DC think twice about just teeing-off.

    Goff had a good game vs Packers [if not for some major drops]; ergo, if the O works off that PA, Caleb can likewise strike tactically as he did vs Philly.

    Bears’ run D, despite backup LBs and thin Dline, held Barkley to 4.3 YPC and 53 yds total. O dominating TOP contributed to that no doubt.

    However, most of us watched the Packers-Lions’ game, and Jacobs looked strong with 4.9 YPC /83 YDs total; Jacobs also ran for 5.7 YPC vs Giants, and 5.1 vs Panthers, so he’s picking up steam in chilly weather.

    What worries me more is Jordan Love looked like a top-3 QB vs a stiff Lions’ D in Detroit. He made ballsy throws on clutch downs sans INTs – very reminiscent of his predecessor. Love went off for 234, 4TDs, 0 SKs [in 30 pass attempts] for 124.2 Rating.

    So the key will be two fold. Make sure Jacobs doesn’t get going and force Love to become prime-Rodgers. With any luck, he reverts to drunk-Favre and starts chucking INTs.

    Like with the Eagles, all the pressure will be on THEM. The tighter and later it gets, the better it will be for the Bears since they’re used to being the junkyard dogs no one wants lurking.

    The Bears haven’t been the #1 seed in the NFC this late since…’16!

    Mano de Sweetness

  • Bears@Eagles Game Preview WK13

    Bears@Eagles Game Preview WK13

    Happy [Early] Turkey Day! Or if you’re vegetarian, Tofurkey Day which actually can double as a football if you play Thanksgiving ball like me and my friends used to.

    Rev reminded me of the Fog Bowl, so if you’re feeling nostalgic, click here.

    Bears@Eagles Preview.

    O/U 44.5; Eagles -6.5

    Eagles’ O.
    PPG. 23.2 [17th]
    YPG. 303.6 [24rth]
    PYPG. 193.2 [23rd]
    RYPG. 110.5 [21st]
    3rd Down conv. 34.56% [27th]
    TOs. 6 [1st]

    As of Weds, the Eagles are still missing RT Lane Johnson. Given how impactful Montez Sweat has been since the bye, that’s absolutely a favorable Bears’ matchup.

    As for the Bears, eyes are on Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon finally returning. Honestly though, how much of a ‘downgrade’ is Nashon Wright from JJ? JJ has dropped some relatively easy INTs, you think he makes some of those spectacular Wright high-points? Wright was also in prime position to end the Steelers’ game at the end if Brisker doesn’t tip it. You have the same confidence JJ INTs that?

    Meanwhile all CJ Gardner-Johnson has done is everything. What does Gordon do better besides strain something?

    These are real questions Dennis Allen must answer soon, and maybe Ryan Poles down the line with the cap and trying to nab and pay a premiere rusher like Jefferey Simmons or Myles Garrett.

    The Eagles’ O doesn’t turn it over, so this is strength vs strength. I think the last time the Bears lost the turnover battle [Ravens], they lost the game. So we’ll see which unit imposes its will. #1 No TO Eagles’ O – or #1 TO Bears’ D.

    Their run game has struggled though. They avg 3.9 per rush, 2.30 yds before contact, and rank 24rth in EPA in last 3 weeks. Flus actually used a 5-man “Bear” front to stuff Saquon Barkley, and I can easily see Dennis Allen following suit with Brisker, Sewell, Jackson, or Gordon[?] and CJ off the corners. Granted, Cowboys had Quinnen Williams, but Grady Jarrett has looked healthier as of late.

    The wildcard will be Jaylen Hurts scrambling; the Bears have struggled vs running QBs like Dart, Huntley, etc and are down to PS squad tier LBs who bit on every misdirection vs Steelers, but as the Giants found out the hard way, that’s a risky gameplan. Bears’ D flies and lays the wood hunting for TOs.

    On D, we all know the Eagles’ Dline is to envy. We are well aware that Poles drafted Darnell Wright instead of Jalen Carter, and that Carter has played at an AP level and is arguably a top 3 DT which we can fantasize about.

    However, the Bears’ Oline has totally rebounded from ’24 and has become an asset coming off a strong game vs Steelers where Ozzy Trapilo stepped in and looked the part.

    Caleb struggling under pressure raises an eyebrow. Would like to see him make aggressive Ds pay, but what QB doesn’t struggle under pressure?

    One thing that could be a gamechanger though is that the Vikings brought edge blitzers to stifle the stretch run and contain Caleb.

    The Eagles’ Dline is talented enough to not need to blitz, which means Fangio will use all kinds of exotic coverages to confuse Caleb. If there’s a rush in his face on top of that, could be a long Black Friday for Caleb.

    Here’s a concise game preview by Bears Now.


    Think Trac said Bears would have to get two turnovers and score over 30 to win this game.

    My response, “So, basically, another Bears’ game.”

    It’s gotten to that point in the season where we don’t have to wonder all that much what teams are.

    The Bears are a feisty, sloppy, opportunistic team with the most dangerous weapon of all:

    BELIEF

    They BELIEVE that if it’s close, no matter how slow, penalty-ridden, or miscued through 3 QTRs – no matter if the opposing team blocked a punt/FG, returned for a TD, strip-sacked TD, are averaging 6 yards per play, or if they’re down to 20 players because lighting struck their sideline…these Bears believe they’ll close it out regardless.

    That’s a 180 from the floundering Fluses which found ways to lose.

    Bears are a scary team to face even if you are the reigning champs and favorited Eagles. Bears are playing with house $ while the entire Philly hate-machine has been pounding on them all season especially after a brutal blown game against their hated rival Cowboys.

    Overtime:

    Couple odd stats for Bears.

    1. No QB with such an awful comp% wins as much as Caleb Williams. It’s not even all that close really:

    2. Bears are also -3 point differential total the whole season. Apparently only the 1987 Chargers were worse through 11 games.

    [Any old-timers recall the ’87 Chargers?]

    I mentioned this before, but this Bears’ team reminds me a lot of the ’22 Vikings when they made that crazy 13-4 run with Kirk Cousins. Felt like every week was that scene from “Airplane”, “Looks like I picked the wrong time to quit sniffing glue!”

    [2023 Vikings? 7-10]

    Then add that the Bears’ D allows 5.77 YPP [20th], 26.5 PPG [27th] yet still count on at least 2+TOs per game [1st], and one can understand why many persist the Bears are “Fun Frauds.”

    It’ll be up to Bears to finally silence the doubters; after all, the only difference between “fun frauds” and epic “Cinderellas” is winning.

    [Go Puke?]

  • Bears@Vikings Game Preview

    Bears@Vikings Game Preview

    Minny leads series 69-58-2

    By the numbers:

    Bears’ O 26.6 PPG [7th] Can you believe it!

    Week 1 Vikes beat Bears 27-24

    -JJ 143 YDS, 2TDs, 1 INT, 1 Rush TD, 98.5 Rating
    -Caleb 210 YDS, 1 TD, 86.6 Rating

    Vikings’ Pass D allows 102.7 Rating to opposing QBs [24rth]. They only have 3 INTs the whole season. In addition, they have also allowed 24+ points in past 4 games.

    So in theory, this should be a favorable matchup for Caleb through the air.

    Despite this, they boast an athletic front which held Lamar Jackson, arguably the most efficient QB, to 58%, 176 YDs, 1 TD

    Their run D seems a bit more stout holding King Henry to 75 yds, 3.8 ypc. Season long they concede 4.2 ypc [16th].

    JJ McCarthy has been held to a sub 83 QB rating in last 3 games [54.5 vs Ravens] and is going to play with a bruised hand that has limited his practice.

    He has also been sacked 11 times in previous 2 games. Bears have racked up 3+ sacks in back-to-back games, but the key will be if JJ holds on to the ball.

    What should worry Bears more is Vikings rushed for 167 YDs [6.7 ypc] vs Ravens as JJ contributed 48. Given how Dart – darted around – hopefully the D practiced setting the edge, contain, and RPOs.

    Season-long Bears’ D is giving up 5.2 ypc [29th], and if Edwards remains out, you bet your ass the Vikings are going to want to limit JJ passing as much as possible and attack Jarrett/Chris Williams/Sewell every chance they get.

    This is where the Caleb gauntlet begins. Like Hercules and his 12 Labors, Caleb will need to prove himself in order to relieve a lot traumatized Bear fans.

    X-Factor

    Bears played a relatively clean game vs Gmen [3 accepted flags], but will this carry over on the road in a raucous stadium? The Bears NEED to start winning some of these div games [they’re 0-2 currently] in order to stay atop the division or ahead on the WC race with tie-breakers.

    Let the labors commence!

    Overtime. Michael Franzese is a former Columbo cappo who was heavily involved with athletes gambling. If you even watched ONE mafia flick, you know that gambling is YUGE in that culture, so this is his take on what’s rocking the NBA and MLB.

    “My dad told me there’s three things that can kill you: wine, gambling, and women. Watch all three of them.“

  • Bears@Ravens WK8 Preview

    Bears@Ravens WK8 Preview

    First off, thanks for the bday wishes! Had a blast. I rarely eat fancy meals, but I heard of an Italian spot run by actual Italians. At first I was a bit skeptical since it was located in a strip mall!

    However, so what if it’s not atop the Pyrenees ? As long as the food is delectable, and it was!

    You guys in Chicago might be spoiled with more quality Italian restaurants, but it’s a bit hard to find authentic Italian in L.A.

    The chef comped me a crab chowder soup: fresh crab in lobster bisque, potato, carrots and a touch of cream flavored with white Italian truffle paste; we actually chatted since he was making the rounds. He was from Naples, the host from Northern “German” Italy.

    I ordered a Tuscan Wild Boar Ragu: parpadella pasta, Tuscan wild boar and juniper flavor pancetta in a light red wine sauce.

    Magnifico!

    On to the Ravens…

    The biggest factor will be if Lamar Jackson plays, and just how healthy he is.
    He missed Mon, Tues, returned Weds, but was limited.

    The Ravens opened up as 6.5 favorites which should be a slap in the face to the Bears who after all are 4-2 riding a 4-win streak. Pan to the Ravens at 1-5 with a hobbled QB and a leaky defense.

    Ravens’ D is allowing 4.6 ypc [to RBs]
    32.3 PPG [32nd]; rank 27th in 3rd down D.

    Their pass D isn’t much better. Their secondary amazingly enough has only ONE INT thus far while allowing 108.4 passer rating [28th]and 246 passing yds [28th] with only 8 sacks and low pressure rate.

    They’re supposed to get Roq back who should be motivated. Still, is he going to remedy ALL that?

    Ravens are coming off a bye, playing at home, in must-win mode, ergo this should test the Bears.

    What I really want to see is if the Bears are physical.

    One thing about the Harbaugh Ravens is that they always come out ready to brawl.

    The Bears have actually played physically on their win streak – one of the biggest reasons we should get excited about the Ben Johnson Bears which differs bigly from his predecessors.

    Stuffing the run, forcing 3-4 TOs while stampeding for 200 will make the other team buckle-up their chinstraps.

    If the Bears can match the Ravens’ intensity that will bode well going forward.

    On O, it’s simple enough. Will Ravens respect Caleb Williams enough to go with a light-box like the Saints, and if so, will that open up the run game again?

    [D’Andre Swift is nursing a groin FWIW]

    Follow up question: if the Ravens don’t respect Caleb enough and decide to go full-Ravens and crowd the LOS, how will Caleb respond after a down Saints’ game?

    172 yds, 1 INT, 61.7 Rating

    Will he pull out of the slump?

    Something else to keep an eye on is Theo Benedet especially since rumors are swirling about trading Braxton Jones. Here’s an in-depth breakdown of his performance vs Saints.

    Speaking of trade rumors, there’s waaaay too many to track here, but luckily Harrison Graham covers some names, first and foremost DE Jermaine Johnson [Jets] and maaaybe Mad Maxx Crosby.

    On D, well, I keep waiting for the turnover ride to be over, but it keeps going, so screw it, let’s go Dennis “The Menace” Allen!

    We gotta keep an eye on if Tyrique Stevenson will play because if not the Bears will have to start Nick McCloud or Josh Blackwell, essentially CB#4/5. Not exactly ideal if Lamar is back.

    Austin Booker should return, so that’s a boost.

    At any rate, the Ravens score 24 PPG [13th] and are 13th in 3rd down conversions with Jackson, and that’s really the crux.

    Lamar’s QB rating is a mind-boggling 130 [1st] with 10TDs/1INT and naturally a bunch of back-breaking runs.

    IF Lamar plays, and is maybe like 60%, I think the Bears might be able to contain him. Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Booker, Tremaine Edmunds and even Dominque Robinson are relatively athletic – they just must remember to stay discipline and close in under control.

    Maybe Dennis Allen plays more zone and blitzes less [particularly if Stevenson doesn’t play] in order to minimize those big Lamar lanes.

    My biggest worry might be a rested King Henry [5.0 YPC] and their TE Mark Andrews especially if TJ Edwards has to cover him.

    Otherwise, it’ll be the Lamar show.

    Overtime:

    Apparently, Luther Burden is starting Festivus early and airing his grievances about not getting the ball enough. Well, it’s a little hard to feed the 5th option when the QB only has only completed 15 [Saints] and 17[WASH] passes in last two games. I guess we’ll find out how Ben Johnson handles this.

    Also, what’s going to happen with the kicker situation? Is Cairo Santos returning, and if so, are they going to put Jake Moody back on the Practice Squad and risk a team, like say the Gmen, poaching him?

    Will the Bears actually carry TWO kickers on the 53? [nobody tell the Rev…]

  • Gruden Grinding NFCN

    Gruden Grinding NFCN

    Chucky breaking down NFCN, starts off with Bears.

    Some interesting tidbits:

    Bears haven’t had a winning season since ’18 [12-4].

    Bears have finished LAST in past 7 of 11 seasons.

    Bears have only had a Top 10 Offense three times in past 30 years.

    Bears only team to never have a 4K passer or 30 TD QB.

    ‘It’s time for all the players Poles got [in CAR trade]- Caleb, Wright, DJ, Stevenson and Burden – to step up’

    Lions went for it on 4rth down 110x in last three [BJ] years.

    ’24 Bears O were 32nd in yards [4,820],31st in passing yards [3,552], 25th in rushing [1,734] while giving up a whopping 68 sacks [3rd most EVER].

    “That’s like getting kicked in the groin 68 times.”

    Detroit in ’24 ran the most plays under center [56%]. The Bears with Williams only 84 snaps out of 575 attempts. [Approx 14%].

    ’24 Detroit lead the league in PA 37%; Bears only PAed 18% [30th].

    PA should help the RBs accelerate and find lanes.

    Should be way more PS motion. “RCE – Recognize, communicate, execute”

    Caleb was off target 21% of passes [PFF]
    Esp deep. Completed 14/68 passes over 20 yds 23% [sic] My math computes 20.5%

    Of the 68 sacks, 28 of them Caleb held ball for over 5 secs.

    Dennis Allen will use a lot of exotic looks. Cover 1/2/3, pre/post coverages, CBs pressing, man, zero blitzes.

    Bears allowed 17.2 points in first seven games.

    Last ten games allowed 25.1 ppg.

    2,317 yds allowed [28th]. 4.8 rush avg allowed [29th].

    Edmunds youngest player [27] in NFL history to start 100 games. 100+ tackles in first seven seasons.

    “I think the Bears’ D fell off because Brisker was out. Reminds me of old Bears’ safety, Fencik, Plank…”

    [I suspect the running D went to shite after Big Billings went down].

    Tory Taylor broke Bears’ net-punting record – 41.6