I rememeber that ’18 NFL Draft when CLE selected Baker Mayfield #1 overall, the Jets selected Sam Darnold #3 overall, while the Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7 banking that he’d be another good ‘project’ like Carson Wentz for the Eagles [‘ 17 Wentz threw for 33TDs/7ints and 101.9 passer rating].

Incidentally, the Bears drafted Roq at #8, Bills drafted Edmunds at #16, Panthers drafted DJ Moore at #24 and Hippy’s adopted son Chosen Rosen went #11 overall.

I remember thinking at the time that both Mayfield and Darnold were ‘can’t miss.’
I loved Mayfield’s mojo to turn around the factory of sadness. I thought Darnold’s steady demeanor and playing in L.A. [USC] suited him well for the intense NY market.

Yet somehow, the Browns and Jets still broke them.

I was a bit more on the fence about Josh Allen. Wentz recency bias made me think big physical ‘projects’ from small schools could work, but man, that’s a gamble [as the Eagles found out].

I wasn’t too sold on Rosen. To me, he was sorta the JJ McCarthy of that draft. Meh.

However, both Mayfield and Darnold “busting” really made me self-evaluate. How could I have been so wrong on both? I didn’t expect either to be sure-fire HOFers, but BUSTS?

I mean one, yeah, stats say QBs are 50/50, but BOTH. Maybe draft picks are no better than taking a spin at the Roulette table.

Well, as it turns out, both Mayfield and Darnold only needed to join functional teams.

Then it hit me. I was wrong, but not in the way I imagined.

I erred in believing in that the philosophy of “pick yourself up by your bootstrap” still applies to QBs. It obviously does NOT.

Like much in life, surrounding greatly impacts results.

This is an old debate: nature-v-nurture.

But it’s not binary.

Browns and Jets have been forever dysfunctional, and as Florio refrains, “dysfunctional teams do dysfunctional things” and this can be macro: owners, GMs, coaches, draft…to micro: developing players, ESP QBs.

Being dysfunctional isn’t a death sentence either. The Bengals, Lions and Bears have also been a laughing stock for 40+ years, yet they seemed to have dug themselves out of the Browns/Jets 9th circle of hell.

I was mistaken in assuming that a single individual, even a QB, can simply will himself to be an Ubermench regardless of circumstance.

One might be tempted to retort, “Well, Brady and Mahomes would’ve been great no matter.” Really? What if the Chris Palmer Browns drafted Brady and the Pace-Nagy Bears drafted Mahomes?

This works the other way as well.
A successful organization doesn’t automatically generate HOF QBs like some GPT prompt.

Reid in KC could only go so far with Alex Smith. The same Pats who won 6 SBs drafted Mac Jones. 9ers traded the house for Trey Lance.

Oops!

I suppose this is a long-winded way of stating the obvious:

It takes both nature+nurture=success.

The formula isn’t written in stone. Who knows about the ratio. 80% to 20% or vice versa.

But USUALLY [outliers do exist] it is some ratio of both.

This SB marks the first time two top 5 [drafted] QBs square-off. That’s a remarkable stat given the ENORMOUS amount of resources that go into finding a franchise QB.

It illustrates how fickle the whole process really is, how maybe one seemingly minute factor could set off a whole butterfly effect.

Terry Bradshaw’s life literally came down to a coin flip. Steelers won. They drafted Bradshaw, and after a disastrous start he rebounded to win 4 SBs.

The Bears traded their #2 to the Green Bay Packers for veterans Lee Roy Caffey, Bob Hyland, and Elijah Pitts translating to squat.

If Bears win coinflip and draft Bradshaw…well, you elder-fans tell me if it results in 4 SBs…

Overtime:

Butch’s SB pick.

I think I’ve been right in every pick [except in Bears over Rams, but I can live with that].

I think SEA’s D is simply too dominant to allow such a young QB (who’s been a playoff TO machine) to excel.

When a D has a legit nickname [The Darkside], you know they’re good!

There’s a risk that Darnold will Darnold, but thus far he really hasn’t [outside Rams]. If he starts seeing ghosts again, it’ll be one epic chokejob.

On top of that, SEA has a great one-two punch at HB, plus a dangerous returner and solid specials with sound coaching.

The Pats’ Dline is real, but how tight will the refs call this game? A lot of times they allow WAAAAY more holding [and PIs] than usual in the SB, which may mitigate the Pats’ biggest advantage.

As such, I predict a slow, tight game, but with huge SEA momentum surges which will be too much for a relatively inexperienced Pats’ team.

Darnold gets his ultimate vindication while the Queens are stuck with #9 watching the SB in a Cancun bar….