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  • The NFC North 2026 Schedule Comparison: Chicago gets rocked

    The NFC North 2026 Schedule Comparison: Chicago gets rocked

    Written by GP

    If you wanted a schedule that Dan Campbell can dance a little jig to, you just got it. Bears get stiffed harder than Riley Reid on set.

    The setup. Statistically, previous year schedule is almost useless as a predictor: from 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team’s actual Strength of Schedule [SOS] was explained by opponents’ prior-year records; this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years. Warren Sharp‘s preferred method swaps in 2026 Vegas projected win totals, which captures coaching changes, roster turnover, and quarterback movement that last year’s record can’t see. The Patriots-from-4-13-to-14-3 problem is something the NFL actually looked at.

    For the NFC North, both methods agree on the bookends and disagree on the middle.

    The Traditional Numbers (2025 Opponent W%)

    Bears .550 (hardest in NFL) … T3. Packers .538 … 11. Vikings .519 … 27. Lions .467 – Easiest: New York Giants

    Three NFC North teams in the top eleven hardest, with the Lions out at 27th — that’s a direct artifact of every team in the division finishing 2025 above .500, which forces three of them into first-place rotations against tough opponents while the lone team without that penalty (Detroit, who didn’t win the division) catches HUGE breaks. There are two big reasons why the Bears’ schedule is so difficult: Strength of schedule is based on your opponents’ record from last season and every team in the NFC North finished with a winning record last year which had never happened in my lifetime before.

    Where does it get interesting?

    Lions: #1 easiest schedule in the NFC-N. Using current Vegas win totals as our measure, the Lions stand out as having the easiest schedule. By a lot.

    Bears: 6th-hardest in the NFL overall. Slightly less brutal than the traditional method suggests but still top-quartile-tough.

    Packers and Vikings: Neither is at the extreme of Sharp’s list — they’re middle-of-pack-to-tough, but lighter than the .538 and .519 traditional numbers would suggest, because Sharp’s model downgrades opponents who lost their QB or coach over the offseason.

    What’s Actually Driving the Bears’ Pain

    The Bears’ slate is heavy by either measure because of where they finished and where they sit in the rotation.

    The Chicago Bears wind up with the hardest schedule in the NFL based on being the NFC North division champion – which automatically puts them on a collision course with the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles. But they also have to face the ENTIRE AFC East this year which means going up against the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Their interconference opponent for 2026 is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

    That’s already five games against teams that had at least 11 wins last year :

    Seahawks (Super Bowl LX winners), Eagles, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars — before you count the two each against Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota.

    After winning the NFC North for the first time since 2020, the Bears were handed the league’s sixth-hardest schedule in ’26. They’ll open the season on the road to take on the Panthers in Week 1 before a seven-week stretch that features contests against the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Patriots. The back-half of their schedule, meanwhile, doesn’t provide much relief, as they’ll take on the Bills, Green Bay, the Lions and Minnesota over the final four weeks of the campaign.

    Why the Lions Get the Pansy Run

    Detroit drops to 27th in traditional SOS and #1-easiest in projected because they finished below the rest of the division in 2025 and drew the corresponding place-based rotation. They get the easier 2025-record cross-conference draws and avoid a first-place schedule’s extra teeth. The projected metric likes them even more because they’re forecast to play the highest pace of teams Vegas thinks won’t be very good in 2026.

    The Verdict

    Hardest: Bears, by a whole fucking lot. They’re #1 traditional and 6th projected — the only NFC North team in the top ten on both lists. The first six weeks include road trips to Carolina, Buffalo, and Washington, plus Philadelphia and Seattle at home, and the final four feature Bills/Packers/Lions/Vikings. There is no soft stretch. Harder the RoK in Vietnam.

    Easiest: Lions, by a mile. They’re 27th traditional and #1 projected — the only NFC North team comfortably in the bottom ten on either list, and the only team in the entire NFL with the #1 projected ranking for ease of schedule.

    Middle: Packers lean tough (T-3rd traditional, middle projected), Vikings lean middle (11th traditional, middle projected). Packers harder than Vikings.

    And, of course, every NFC North team plays every other one twice, so a meaningful chunk of each team’s SOS is shared. The differentiation comes from cross-conference and place-based rotations — and that’s where the Bears got incredibly punished for winning the division and the Lions got rewarded for not.

  • Lions Pounce on Listless Bears

    Lions Pounce on Listless Bears

    If you were to relay to a non-football fan that one of the teams was playing for something, and the other wasn’t, he would have quipped, “Oh, so that team in white is obviously playing for something.” Bears came out like the Fox zombies – oddly disinterested and disjointed. They completely nullified their home crowd.

    These were the stats by halftime:

    Lions 237 yds; 19:12 TOP; 13 points

    Bears 69 yds; 10:48 TOP; 0 points

    Abject failure. At least the defense was holding them to mostly FGs despite the Bears’ O just giving it right back. So yes, while the defense faltered, not nearly as much as the offense. In fact the O didn’t wake up til late in the game while the D did the heavy lifting.

    This is unacceptable. Poles hired Ben Johnson so that the new engine to the Bears would be the offense. He drafted Loveland instead of a pass rusher, doubled down with Burden [“overdrafted” Trapilo], and oh yeah, used the #1 overall on Caleb and another top #10 for good measure on Rome.

    Meanwhile the defense is being held together with bailing wire, the ghosts of Dayo, Shemar, Gordon and ailing underperformers.

    This is why BJ’s decision to punt it on 4rth and 4ish late in the 4rth was so baffling. Did he not see the game? They asked BJ why he decided to punt. He responded:

    “Because we had three timeouts and thought we were going to get the ball back.”

    How can such a sharp mind use that logic? ESPECIALLY when his other trait is aggressiveness. Needless to say, he came to regret that decision.

    We expect the defense to struggle while the offense carries the game; it shouldn’t be the other way around.

    Ben Johnson said as much in his post-presser:

    “I was not pleased with the offense today,”

    He added: “We can’t dig ourselves in a hole like that. I was disappointed with the offense as a whole. I let those guys know that. And we’ll be better for it.”

    Naturally, the BounceBack Bears, well, bounced back, but it was too little too late.

    And that’s twice in a row now resulting in two [totally different types of] defeats.

    It’s like continually hitting on 16 in Black Jack. Eventually the laws of averages bust you out with a vengeance.

    Luckily for the Bears, hitting on 16 didn’t cost them much this time. Nick Sirianni in his infinite wisdom decided to “rest” Hurts, then proceeded to lose to the terrible Commandos, thus locking the Bears as the #2 Seed to face the Packers this Saturday.

    Overtime:

    Congrats to Caleb Williams for becoming the Bears all-time leading season passer.

    Like I wrote in the game thread, I really didn’t give a crap about him hitting 4K. It’d be nice, like receiving Cheesecake Factory gift cards, but nothing mindblowing. I would’ve been more impressed if it happened in 16 games.

    Before this 17th game:

    ’25 Caleb YPG=233.1
    ’18 Bisquit YPG=230.2

    3 more yds per game than Trubisky isn’t exactly anything to write home about. Still, it’s not nothing, so golf clap.

    Speaking of which, congrats to Myles Garrett for breaking the season sack record

    Michael Strahan apparently wasn’t buying it ‘Garrett is the record holder for the 17 game season. I’m the record holder for the 16 game season’

    I may have agreed with him, but Garrett played for the freaking shitty BROWNS who likely weren’t ahead much. The stats say as much:

    Scott@WFNYScott
    Snaps required for each sack record:

    Myles Garrett (23): 437
    TJ Watt (22.5): 616
    Michael Strahan (22.5): 567

    Strahan’s buddy Favre diving for him was also highly dubious, so Strahan can suck it.

    Congrats to Loveland too. This may have been his breakout game, but outside from one tough drop, he’s been a 3rd/4rth down conversion machine. Brady even referred to him as “Baby Gronk,” and coming from him, that’s saying something. It’s even more remarkable because TEs notoriously progress slowly, so such ROI so soon should end any ‘shoulda drafted a HB’ or ‘Tyler Warren’ protests.

    I hope to gawd his back and not his will gave out. I don’t really put this INT on Caleb. He threw it to a spot like in that Pack game, except this time DJ flopped, literally.

    DJ wasn’t the only Bear to flop though. Many fans also noticed JJ looking slow and soft. These are vital vets getting PAID; they need to show the hell up in the crunch.

    Factoid:

    In a truly surreal season, the Bears won the NFCN despite going 2-4 in the division.

    Fitting. On a related note

    It’s Packer Week III!

    #FGB

  • Final Week of NFL Season. Lions@Bears

    Final Week of NFL Season. Lions@Bears

    Not gonna lie, it’s a little hard to get into this game because I simply don’t know what Lions’ team is going to run out of the tunnel.

    Will they be like the Bears last year vs Pack in the finale desperately trying to play spoilers even if it only involved some marginal playoff seeding?

    Or will Dan Campbell rest his MASH unit and call it a season, maybe even doing a small favor to his former OC Ben Johnson? I mean, the last thing Campbell would want is Goff tearing his achilles in a meaningless game [Remember when Lovie made Lach play the last game, and he INJed himself and was never really the same?]

    The seeding is relatively simple now. Seattle clinched #1 Seed [that D impressed]. Bears currently hold tie breaker over Eagles for the #2 Seed, so if both win out, Bears are #2. If Eagles tie/lose, Bears are #2.

    As for who the Bears will face as the #2 Seed, well, that’s a bit more complicated which I’m sure the pregame shows will math ad nauseum, but suffice it to say, Bears will likely host a game vs Packers which would be insane.

    9ers and Rams are also possibilities. Sadly, not which ever NFCS team limp-dicks in.

    ✶ Sports Mockery ✶@sportsmockery·16h

    Here are the odds for who the Bears might face in the first round:

    1. Green Bay Packers: 78%
      • They are the clear favorite if the Bears win against Detroit or if Philadelphia loses. The Packers are already locked in at the #7 seed.
    2. San Francisco 49ers: 13%
      • If the Bears lose to Detroit and Philadelphia wins, they will drop to #3. Seattle wins and the Rams beat Arizona also affects this.
    3. Los Angeles Rams: 9%
      • Similar scenario as with the 49ers; Bears drop to #3 if they lose to Detroit and Philadelphia wins. If the 49ers win or if Seattle wins and the Rams lose to Arizona, this also matters.

    I’m interested in Ben Johnson’s strategy.

    Will he follow the Belichick way of playing all the starters to keep them sharp for the playoffs?

    Or will he choose to rest players since they aren’t the #1 seed and don’t have a bye?

    Maybe he’ll find a middle ground and rest some injured players and older veterans who usually would play.

    Ultimately, the main goal is to win and stay healthy.

    The Bears will need every advantage in the playoffs since they’ve exceeded expectations all year.

    Bear Down, baby.

  • Another Bearless Sunday Unless You’re in Weho [NTTAWWT]

    Another Bearless Sunday Unless You’re in Weho [NTTAWWT]

    None of the early games are interesting. NFL assumed Rams-v-Ravens would be good, but didn’t plan on Lamar going down. Maybe they calculated Chargers-v-Fins would be watchable, but both teams are disappointing.

    The later slate is not much better. No doubt the schedule makers were proud about Bengals-v-Puke, but with Burrow out the result is all but certain.

    Only real interesting matchup is Lions-v-Chiefs. This could very well be a SB preview, but here’s the difference.

    Lions usually steamroll through the regular season then sputter in the playoffs.

    Chiefs stagger through the regular season like a drunken sailor, then when the playoffs arrive, they sober up, and blast their [AFC] foes with anti-aircraft cannons.

    They’re the reason neither Lamar nor Josh Allen own SB rings.

    So despite me hoping the Lions will lose, I think they’ll eke out a victory at KC although part of me still expects Goff to wilt in prime-time.

  • Bears@Lions WK2 Thread

    Bears@Lions WK2 Thread

    Photo courtesy of our very own I Bleed Navy+Orange. Like I messaged him, hope it was super-zoom!

    Bears are going to need a minor miracle to defeat the Meows, but luckily they now have a Pope.

    Bear Down.

  • Opening Day Thread! Go Lions?

    Opening Day Thread! Go Lions?

  • The Bears are Finishing Last in the NFCN. AGAIN…

    The Bears are Finishing Last in the NFCN. AGAIN…

    As y’all know, I’m new to this whole Blogging biz. So, I snoop about. Seems like everyone is making a bunch of predictions. I was going to do some in-depth 4-parter… no need.

    Poles whiffed on the previous HC, Flus. And YES, as Jeff the ultimate Bears’ insider has stated emphatically, Poles WANTED Flus; furthermore, Poles vouched for Flus the off-season he should’ve been canned.

    In La Cosa Nostra, when mobsters vouched for Joe Pistone, AKA, Donnie Brasco, they were KILLED. Dead wrong was literal.

    Seems the least that should’ve happened to Poles is a pink-slip. Yet, he somehow stuck like shit on soles, and stunningly even managed to get extended! So Bears…

    Poles hiring, and backing Flus stunted the Bears on multiple levels. But this isn’t the only way Poles has hurt the Bears. In addition, his mediocrity [at best] has left them bereft of not only blue-chip talent, but DEPTH.

    Now the chickens have come home to roost.

    Poles tried his best to compensate for his misses, doing what most mid-GMs do to salvage their rosters and careers – trades for players other teams developed since the Bears can’t develop their own. Plus FA shopping spree.

    Nevertheless, it’s still not enough, is it?

    Too many questions persist: can Sweat rebound, or is he essentially the new Alex Brown? Can Dayo, ya know, sack QBs, or should that $ have been funneled to possibly Trey Hendrickson or Micah Parsons? WTF’s going on at LT? Was Wright overdrafted and merely an avg RT? [cough, Carter, cough] If Jonah Jackson was so good, why did McVey happily send him packing? What happens if Brisker gets another concussion? What if Swift or Byard go down?

    And the million dollar question:

    Can Caleb become better than Jayden Daniels?

    Poles didn’t draft Caleb #1 overall to be Kyler Murray or worse than Bo Nix.

    NTM , no matter how much Ben Johnson is praised, we simply don’t know if he’s an NFL-winning HC.

    Remember when Chip Kelly stormed into the league in a whirlwind of praises?

    Meanwhile, the Lions, Vikings and Packers pose far fewer questions. They won 15, 14 and 11 games, respectively, and all are legit SB contenders.

    Then the lowly Bears.

    That’s a tough road to slog with so many unknowns, lack of All-Pros, and paper-thin depth at key positions under a rookie HC.

    As such, my predicalator computes…Bears finish last in NFCN.

    Now, this might seem pessimistic at first, but don’t throw your laptop at your TV quite yet!

    If the Bears were in a weaker division, say, the NFC or AFC South, I’d argue they could win the division, but that’s not our reality.

    They can win 9 games, yet be last and out of the playoffs. In that scenario, we can still be optimistic as long as the team appears heading in the right direction.

    This is like a middle-weight being thrown into a division with prime Sugar Ray, Hagler, Hearns and Duran – via con dios…

    How the Bears don’t finish last:

    Like Dr. Strange navigating multitudinous futures, I’ll offer some possibilities where Bears leap-frog their rivals. I’ll try to leave the obvious ‘if player-x gets INJed.’


    1. Lions. They’ve been remarkably consistent. In some ways, they’re like the Bills. A blue-collar gritty out. However, both their lauded OC and DC left, and no one knows exactly how it will negatively impact them. It can’t be good, but how bad can it make them?

    2. Vikings. Perhaps the biggest X-factor in the division – is JJ McCarthy a franchise QB? If he’s not, or even just starts off slowly like Bryce Young, well, Vikings could drop to the dredges.

    3. Packers. Much like the Vikings, their future firmly rests on the arm of Jordan Love and the back of Micah Parsons. I just feel something askew with that team. They were a blocked FG away from the Bears sweeping them last season, and they couldn’t beat the Bears in the finale despite the Bears playing for only pride. Jordan Love could be their Sexy Rexy. A streaky, sometimes INJed QB, who can push a team far but always tumultuously. Plus, if Parson’s back is more messed up than previously assumed, then that truly cripples the team as he cost two first rounders and an astounding $46M against the cap.

    4. Bears. Throw all the doubts out. Ignore the lack of a premiere pass rusher, questionable LT, thin depth, rookie HC…

    If Caleb becomes Mahomes, then game on. Not only won’t they finish last, it’s entirely plausible they overtake the Lions and make a strong playoff-push.

    Look at the Bengals. Their ’21 team was OK, but I don’t believe many predicted they’d make it to the SB. Bengals like the Lions were a joke for decades. They made the SB mainly on the phenomena that is Joe Burrow [and to a lesser extent, Ja’Marr Chase].

    If Caleb throws for 4,600, 34TDs, runs for another 500 while earning an 108 QB rating, then it won’t matter what the Lions, Vikings, Packers, or any team honestly, does because Caleb will simply impose his greatness, and all the D and specials have to do is not suck.

    Hey, a gal can dream…