Da Dos

Tag: January

  • Take. The. Points.

    Take. The. Points.

    Official. Pats-v-Seahawks SB.

    This was my projected outcome. I still predict SEA will win the whole thing. They seem like the most complete team: solid coaching; good QB [who is not currently choking]; unstoppable WR with 1-2 punch at HB; great D and specials; NFCW Battle tested [unlike Pats].

    Brett James@thebrettjames1
    ·10h
    Patriots path to a Super Bowl:

    Dolphins x2 (7-10)

    Panthers (8-9)

    Saints (6-11)

    Titans (3-14)

    Bills (12-5)

    Browns (5-12)

    Falcons (8-9)

    Buccaneers (8-9)

    Jets x2 (3-14)

    Bengals (6-11)

    Giants (4-13)

    Ravens (8-9)

    [Playoffs]Justin Herbert; CJ Stroud; Jarrett Stidham

    Dante Koplowitz-Fleming@DanteKopFlem
    ·10h
    Fewest points scored in the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship Games en route to a Super Bowl appearance:

    54 – 2025 Patriots [Maye]
    61 – 2000 Ravens [Dilfer]
    68 – 2007 Giants [Eli]

    This was Maye’s statline somewhere in the 2nd QTR vs Broncos:

    8/14 [57%], 46 yds, and 50 yds rushing, 1 TD. Maye is Fields!

    NFL Researcher@NFL_Researcher
    ·10h
    The Patriots have averaged 18.0 PPG this postseason, the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams (15.0).

    One seemingly underrated area though is the Pats’ Dline, especially the interior. They make life hard on both HB and QB, which allows Maye to effectively game manage and scramble on pivotal downs.

    Butch’s overall ’26 playoff impression.

    Collinsworth, of all ppl, perhaps summed it up best:

    “These games more often than not are lost not won.”

    BJ, Payton, McVay, all good, all offensive minded, all aggressive, all ‘analytic driven’…watching SB from home just like the rest of us.

    Why?

    Because they all passed up on gimme 3 points that could’ve absolutely turned the tide.

    BJ’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that 4rth down magic Caleb TD doesn’t send the game to OT [where Bears lose], rather sends them to the next round vs SEA who looked much more beatable than I surmised.

    Payton’s missing 3 points? I mean, Jesus, he’s playing with a backup QB who had ZERO live snaps in a game that ended 10-7. No, he couldn’t have guessed the 2nd half would turn into a blizzard, but that’s why you TAKE. THE. POINTS.

    McVay’s missing 3 points would’ve meant that final drive just needed to get into FG range as opposed to needing a TD with no TOs and under a minute left. Much more doable since the Rams were moving the ball well all game.

    Time mismanagement also plagued the losing HCs.

    Payton was aggressive before the half which quickly gave back the ball to Pats [with 3 TOs] who then scored what ultimately became the game-deciding TD.

    McVay had zero TOs left by the end making it nigh impossible to drive the field and score a game winning TD.

    Meanwhile, their ‘defensive’ counterparts in Vrabel and McDonald mostly called it more ‘conservatively’. [One may argue, more ‘logically’ given their victories.] Does Vrabel or McDonald call that Caleb-to-DJ killshot in OT that was INTed? Or do they simply keep handing it off for another 10-12 yards with an O that was driving? Think we know the answer, and that is why they’re in the SB.

    Vrabel, like McVay, did go for it on 4rth, but it was 4rth and inches as opposed to 4rth and 1-2 yds, and even then it nearly ended in disaster. Honestly, it looked short to me live.

    Playing ‘to win the game’ resulted in losses.

    When one thinks of Genghis Khan likely images of a marauding wild general come to mind; however, many of his victories derived from relying on his enemies’ rashness to chase his ‘fleeing nomads’. Little did the cocky suckers realize it was a feigned retreat leading to slaughter.

    Now fast forward to Hitler dogmatically sticking to the philosophy of Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg Blitzkrieg! Or alternatively, ordering his generals to hold positions to the death when a tactical retreat would’ve been optimal.

    Hope Ben Johnson takes this lesson to heart:

    a great general knows when to blitzkrieg, when to feint, and when to TAKE THE FUCKING POINTS.

  • Rams@Bears Div Rd

    Rams@Bears Div Rd

    Well, gonna ride or die with Saint Brown!
    Plus, da WAGs

    Get your Bear kit ready:

    Some interesting notes:

    Bears Facts@DaBearsTakeOver

    Sean McVay’s 1st year as Head Coach • 3,804 passing yards • 28 passing TDs • 1,953 rushing yards • 17 rushing TDs Ben

    Johnson’s 1st year as Head Coach: • 3,942 passing yards • 28 passing TDs • 2,456 rushing yards • 19 rushing TDs

    Jake@Jake_B30

    The #Bears have given up 415 points this season The crazy part is, they’ve given up 136 (32.7%) to 3 teams alone (all away games) In the other 14 games, they gave up an average of 19.9PPG. In their 9 home games (including the playoffs) they’ve allowed 18.7PPG, which ranks 10th

    NFL Researcher@NFL_Researcher

    Only two defenses had 3 players with 50+ pressures during the 2025 season, per
    @NextGenStats
    :

    @Broncos
    | #BroncosCountry
    🔸Nik Bonitto – 80
    🔸Zach Allen – 59
    🔸Jonathon Cooper – 50

    @RamsNFL
    | #RamsHouse
    🔹Jared Verse – 67
    🔹Byron Young – 54
    🔹Kobie Turner – 52

    [Needless to say, Verse vs LT will be a battle to monitor]

    The game may come down to how windy it is. If it’s too windy to pass, both teams will be forced to rely on the run, and neither have run as well as earlier in the season. If Thuney is indeed moved to LT, and McFadden starts at LG, gotta wonder how that may affect chemistry, combos, timing, etc.

    Wind may also screw with the Rams’ specials which have struggled mightily. Santos may not have the strongest leg, but he’s made 50+ yarders in cold blustery clutch conditions.

    If it isn’t that windy, then Stafford [likely MVP] can definitely dissect this toothless D IF it can’t generate pressure.

    Allen is caught in a catch 22:

    The front 4 aren’t monsters, but if he blitzes, Stafford has been a stone cold assassin:

    Clay Harbor@clayharbs82

    Matt Stafford has a 125.4 passer rating with 32 TDs and an INT when facing the blitz. He also doesn’t turn the ball over; he set a record with 28 consecutive TD passes without an INT earlier this year.

    So Da Beloved have their work cut out for them either way, but hey, what’s new?

    They’ve been defying the odds all year. No reason to stop bearlieving now.

    🐻⬇️!

  • Saturday Div Thread

    Saturday Div Thread

    Bills@Broncos first to kick-off.
    My stepdad is from CO, so he’s a semi-casual Donk fan [who naturally despises the Raiders]. As such, I’ll be rooting for them; however, Bo Nix is young; they’re loaded and Payton isn’t going anywhere, so if they lose on Saturday, they’ll still be perennial contenders for a few more years.

    I think the Broncos will win mostly because the Bills’ D seems to fall apart in the playoffs, and Payton is a smarter Sean than McDermott.

    I am curious to see if the vaunted Donks’ D can contain Allen though.

    The Broncos are similar to the Bears in starting slow but finding magic late with a sophomore QB, the difference being their D tends to keep it low scoring. I seriously doubt Bo can put up 25 points in the 4rth like Caleb, but he seems to do just enough.

    That’s how they ended up with the #1 Seed after all. Like most, I got a soft spot for Bills’ Mafia, so I just want a good game.

    9ers@Hawks. The most unpredictable games are division games, esp division playoffs games as we gleefully witnessed in the WC RD.

    For our purposes, we want SEA to lose so that 9ers must travel to SF, but I tell you, I almost prefer the Bears facing SEA on the road than playing SF at home because Purdy/Shanahan absolutely paddled the Bears’ ass to the tune of 42 points, and it could’ve easily been 50.

    This game will come down to mostly one thing.

    Will Darnold see ghosts?

    The SEA D IMO is the best this season. They held the 9ers to 3 measly points last time they played for the #1 Seed, and it’s hard to envision the 9ers’ O suddenly becoming more explosive against them esp w/out Kittle [achilles]. I think the 9ers’ INJ plague finally catches up to them, and they lose; obviously I wouldn’t mind the opposite to set up a 9er rematch at SF.

    For what it’s worth, think the COY should come down to Shanahan and Ben Johnson, and this weekend might determine who wins it.

    Courtesy of GP from last thread!

  • Rams@Bears Divisional RD Preview

    Rams@Bears Divisional RD Preview

    Well, I suppose I could write-up the usual musts:

    1. Stop the run
    2. Get the run game going
    3. Control TOP
    4. Win TO & Redzone battle
    5. Play a COMPLETE game

    Well, we can just trash any traditional script.

    ’25 Bounceback Bears defy all standard winning “formulas.”

    Take these ridicules facts:
    —
    Kirsten Tanis@Kirsten_Tanis1

    Per ESPN, Bears had a 13.5% chance before the season to win the NFC North.

    After starting 0-2 in the division, odds plummeted to the low single digits.

    Tonight, they earned the crown. 👑🐻⬇️

    Against all odds, the Chicago Bears kept the faith & kept fighting until it was theirs!
    —
    Jacob Infante

    Since the NFL merger in 1970, just 43 of 422 teams made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, a percentage of just 10.1%
    —
    Caleb on that 4th & 8 throw of the year: Running 13.2 MPH to his non-dominant side 35.3 yards in the air

    —
    Bears vs Packers this season:

    Offensive plays with the lead
    Packers: 106
    Bears: 0
    —
    The Bears are 3-3 when down 10+ points in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter this season.

    The rest of the NFL is 3-158

    —

    Bears have won 6 games trailing inside 2 minutes. That’s impossible – Collinsworth
    —
    Notable #Bears win percentages in key games they’ve won this year:

    • Raiders: 19.3%
    • Commanders: 15.9%
    • Bengals: 14.1%
    • Giants: 4.0%
    • Vikings: 24.9%
    • Packers: 3.0%

    The probability of all those games being wins? 0.0001295%.

    Raiders needed a blocked FG
    Commies needed a fumbled snap/recovery
    Bengals score over 42 points + Loveland
    Gmen down 20-10 with 4:00
    Vikings down 16-17 with :50 left + Durvernay KR
    Packers onside recovery, TD, 2 point etc
    Packers III 25 points in 4rth QTR

    Wish Data was around to quan the maths, but needless to say, Bounceback Bears have defied all logic. There’s a word for that – magical. Christian Watson expressed the improbable season best.

    These Bears will find a way. The Bears are the living avatars of “Just win, baby.” How many game day threads began “Same Ole Bears” and ended “How the F did they pull that one off!”

    By now it’s a feature, not bug. Granted, that doesn’t make the Bears invincible. They were home underdogs vs Packers, now Rams, and likely will be the dogs until confetti drops on their heads; however, their “magic” fizzled out vs Ravens, 9ers, Lions[2X], and NEARLY to 6 other teams.

    So here are some pertinent deets vs the Rams specifically.

    It should be noted that Matthew Stafford [whose thumb may or may not be INJed] was born in FL, grew up in TX, played at GA, then for domed Lions and now sunny LAR.
    He has struggled in cold weather games, and has a penchant for self-destructing a la Jared Goff. Did you watch the final Aaron Rodgers’ game? Old QBs don’t like being hit, and they REALLY don’t like being broken in half like an icicle when it’s freezing, snowy and windy.

    In general, domed teams this past decade are 1-15 in the playoffs when kickoff was at/below 40°

    That being said, what WOULD worry me is that Goffesque QBs can dissect this “Bend Don’t Break D.” Goff did it twice. Brock Purdy once. Shit, even Grandpa Joe Flacco lit them up for 42 and had all of us sniffing glue on that final drive that ultimately floundered.

    Savvy vet QBs [and two efficient backups] have made this defense look terrible, and they weren’t coached by Sean McVay.

    Rams also roster lethal talent: Nacua, top 3 TE combo, top 3 HB combo, Verse, Young…

    So none of us should bet our mortgage down quite yet.

    Jeff’s famous line was “Why Do I like the Bears? I always like the Bears.”

    Well, these Bears convert even haters into fans like Rocky-v-Drago.

    Why do I like the Bears? I don’t. I LOVE these Bears, and I Bearlieve.

    🐻⬇️

  • Packers@Bears III. SNL edition II. WC I.

    Packers@Bears III. SNL edition II. WC I.

    In case you haven’t noticed, I’m a superstitious man! Saint Mike Brown and Da Gals oversaw the last epic comeback.

    We all know what’s at stake. This is only the 3rd time the Bears have faced the Packers in the playoffs, and for all we know, they may not square off again in the playoffs for another 50 years, so this is YUGE.

    So Bear da fuq down and FTP!!!

  • Packers@Bears III. Playoffs, baby!

    Packers@Bears III. Playoffs, baby!

    So I got a little busy this week, but couldn’t think of anything awe-inspiring to write about the matchup.

    A major part of that is because this is the THIRD time the Bears have faced Green Bay this season.

    Divisional games are always a toss-up. That’s how you end up with Commanders defeating the Eagles last week, or the Bears prevailing against the Packers’ in the ’24 finale. Then you add this is the 3rd time [in 5 weeks] playing against one another in the same season, and voila, near coin-flip.

    As they say, familiarity breeds contempt, and you know the Packers are still fuming over the dramatic loss, so they are going to come out brawling.

    An interesting factoid though which caught my eye.

    How many points have the Bears scored against the Packers in the first half this season?

    If your answer is 3, you are sadly correct.

    Clearly, the Bears can NOT sputter out of the gate this time around.

    We saw what a slow start does to the crowd in the final Lions’ game; it totally nullifies the homefield advantage, NVM breaking any offensive rhythm while exhausting the D and sapping any psychological mojo.

    Bears are not a juggernaut. Regardless of record, they are the underdogs [Vegas agrees: Pack are -1.5 road favorites]. They are young with little to no playoff experience. Difference makers like Rome, Gordon and Ozzy will be playing through INJs.

    Soldier Field forecast predicts 9°F, snow and possibly 39 MPH wind!

    Halas has heavily invested in transforming the Bears into a modern offensive-minded team. Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and crew simply cannot afford to cede an entire first half or else “The Iceman” is going to mean starting cold.

    The Chicago media-machine has conjectured what has gone wrong early. Some surmise it is BJ’s initial opening script, specifically that the NFL has figured it out. Some theorize Caleb is too unfocused and erratic when the game is not on the line. Clay Harbor pushes that it simply comes down to execution and eliminating mistakes, especially on 3rd down; he further elaborates the defense “bending” but not breaking for 8 minutes straight ices the offense. It is going to be hard to get into any sort of rhythm if Caleb, Swift and Burden are thawing in their snowy trench coats through two commercial breaks.

    Whatever the issue for slow first halves, the Bears MUST solve it, PRONTO.

    The easiest solution would be for the Bears’ oline to open up lanes for Swift and Monangai to win TOP and keep a shaky D off the field.

    No reason Bears can not start hot either. The Packers’ D in the past 4 games[w/out Parsons] has imploded:

    Which brings me to why I struggled a bit with a preview since I am going to sound cliche:

    The team that wins the trenches, turnover and redzone battle will likely prevail.

    This applies to the defense as well. They cannot for the life of them get off on 3rd down, which allows for QTR long, soul-sucking drives.

    They began [up to Nov] the season top 6ish in opponent third-down conversion. They finished like 22nd [allowing around 40.8% success], and we have witnessed this downward trend in the two losses against SF and DET.

    It does not even seem to matter what Dennis Allen calls either. He mostly played zone vs SF, and they lit that D up for 42 points.

    He mostly played man vs DET, and they lost the TOP battle (19:12-10:48) while their WRs abused Wright, CJ and JJ to 7.7 yards per attempt.

    So what is the answer?

    Well, again, this is going to sound trite.

    Bear players must rise to occasion. The roster must overperform. Sweat, Booker, Jarrett, Brisker, Wright…gotta play out of their minds.

    An interviewer [Manziel] once tried to blame Rex Grossman for the SB loss, but Urlacher was having none of it. Urlacher pointed out that the Colts racked up 250 yards passing and a mind-boggling 190 yards rushing when season long that ’06 D gave up 300 TOTAL. Fans often forget that part.

    In other words: The ’06 Bears’ SB D underperformed.

    [Granted, no MB or Tharris hurt]

    That cannot happen this time around. The Bears must not just meet but SURPASS their potential.

    Since this is a trilogy, think Rocky.

    I compared the ’25 Bears to the both the SB winning ’08 Giants and ’10 Saints.

    In short, both teams “overachieved”.

    Racking up key TOs, clutch moments, and bold decisions. That is how a team overcomes a talent deficit.

    Much like in life, the Bears gotta be the BEST versions of themselves on this unexpected playoff run because as Urlacher relayed, nothing is guaranteed going forward.

    So Godspeed, Chicago Bears.

    For once in 40 years shatter our cynical ‘same ole Bears‘ mantra.

    Rewire the Favre-Rodgers trauma and make us once again BEARLIEVE.

    Bear Down and FTP!