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Tag: Harrison Graham

  • ’26 Bears’ Schedule

    ’26 Bears’ Schedule

    1st off, special shout out to my motherfucking Quant, GP!

    He put in the leg work, and remarkably, even had to hold back on showing us mouthbreathers more math, but his TLDR conclusion?

    Refs aren’t really screwing the Bears.

    Still, despite all the empirical evidence, numbers and data proving thus, still feels wrong.

    At this point if God himself descended to Soldier Field to declare the Bears are getting treated fairly, I still wouldn’t believe it!

    So for those who want to check out the pieces, just click on the 3 previous blogs.

    Onward, and upward to schedules.

    NFL is desperately attempting to make itself relevant year-round. First by extending the season from 11 games, to 12, 14, 16, 17, and soon to be, 18.

    Then they increased the playoff teams, adding a WC [which many traditional fans argued ‘watered-down’ the playoffs].

    SB may eventually land on Valentines’ Day, which I’m sure will go over well with the ladies.

    Then the NFL slowly but steadily built up the combine/Draft. Spearheaded by LegoHead Mel Kiper; it’s now an entire cottage industry. We got countless YTubers breaking down tape, mocking, grading, applying nerd-ball metrics, even supplying ProFootball Weekly style draft guides [PDF version, naturally].

    But alas, the draft ends, and casual fans once more disappear unless they’re really fiending for more draft in the form of class grades or worse – ’27 mocks!

    So, the NFL is trying to manufacture a new niche industry to sucker in more fans with Hollywood style ‘schedule releases’, and yes, ppl are actually now GRADING the productions! It won’t be long until YTubers are making their OWN schedule release vids. Book it.

    Schedules have also become much more complicated than they used to be. Before, it was just Strength of Opponent = [SOS]. But as Harry at ChatSports illustrates, ppl are now factoring ‘net rest advantage’ Apparently the Bears are at +15 while the Chargers are -24 rest days, whatever that means.

    Other nerdball metrics? Air-miles and playing teams coming off a bye + Prime Time games [now put them altogether and GP that shit].

    It should be noted that the schedule is not totally irrelevant. Last season the Pats played one of the easiest schedules of ALL TIME, and they basically skated into the playoffs before getting absolutely curb stomped by a real team in the SB.

    How much does it matter though? Well, that’s what Vegas is for, but the NFL changes weekly, even daily. Micah Parsons going on IR for the first 4 weeks is going to move the line. If Bo Nix’s ankle is proper-fucked, that changes odds dramatically. A backup QB starting will almost automatically make them dogs [unless they’re playing the Bears].

    Here’s Chris Simms on Vegas and DIV odds

    What’s interesting is how conservatively Vegas pushes. They’re still favoring the usual suspects as last season, including the Lions; in fact the only change is Rams over 9ers.

    ThienemanSZN@ThienemanSZN
    ·May 14
    The Bears open as favorites in 12/17 games

    (-2.5) Bears @ Panthers
    (-3.5) Bears vs Vikings
    (-1.5) Bears vs Eagles
    (-8.5) Bears vs Jets
    (+3.0) Bears @ Packers
    (-3.0) Bears @ Falcons
    (-1.5) Bears vs Patiots
    (+4.5) Bears @ Seahawks
    (-3.5) Bears vs Buccaneers
    (-6.5) Bears vs Saints
    (+2.5) Bears @ Lions
    (-2.5) Bears vs Jaguars
    (-5.5) Bears @ Dolphins
    (+3.5) Bears @ Bills
    (-1.5) Bears vs Packers
    (-1.5) Bears vs Lions
    (+1.5) Bears @ Vikings

    Yet they’re also favoring the Bears to win 12 out of 17. Ergo, Lions are winning 13+ games while sweeping the Bears despite still missing Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn?

    Who’s QBing the Vikings? “Seven” or Kyler Murray? How gimpy is Parson’s back? Other teams in the NFCN still have major questions relative to Bears. Naturally, Bears also present their own major question [Dline], but a fan can’t help but be optimistic about the core –

    BJ, Allen, and Caleb.

    We’re trusting somehow they’ll get ‘er done, net rest or not – catchy promo or not. Odds be damned. All in!


  • Bears@Ravens WK8 Preview

    Bears@Ravens WK8 Preview

    First off, thanks for the bday wishes! Had a blast. I rarely eat fancy meals, but I heard of an Italian spot run by actual Italians. At first I was a bit skeptical since it was located in a strip mall!

    However, so what if it’s not atop the Pyrenees ? As long as the food is delectable, and it was!

    You guys in Chicago might be spoiled with more quality Italian restaurants, but it’s a bit hard to find authentic Italian in L.A.

    The chef comped me a crab chowder soup: fresh crab in lobster bisque, potato, carrots and a touch of cream flavored with white Italian truffle paste; we actually chatted since he was making the rounds. He was from Naples, the host from Northern “German” Italy.

    I ordered a Tuscan Wild Boar Ragu: parpadella pasta, Tuscan wild boar and juniper flavor pancetta in a light red wine sauce.

    Magnifico!

    On to the Ravens…

    The biggest factor will be if Lamar Jackson plays, and just how healthy he is.
    He missed Mon, Tues, returned Weds, but was limited.

    The Ravens opened up as 6.5 favorites which should be a slap in the face to the Bears who after all are 4-2 riding a 4-win streak. Pan to the Ravens at 1-5 with a hobbled QB and a leaky defense.

    Ravens’ D is allowing 4.6 ypc [to RBs]
    32.3 PPG [32nd]; rank 27th in 3rd down D.

    Their pass D isn’t much better. Their secondary amazingly enough has only ONE INT thus far while allowing 108.4 passer rating [28th]and 246 passing yds [28th] with only 8 sacks and low pressure rate.

    They’re supposed to get Roq back who should be motivated. Still, is he going to remedy ALL that?

    Ravens are coming off a bye, playing at home, in must-win mode, ergo this should test the Bears.

    What I really want to see is if the Bears are physical.

    One thing about the Harbaugh Ravens is that they always come out ready to brawl.

    The Bears have actually played physically on their win streak – one of the biggest reasons we should get excited about the Ben Johnson Bears which differs bigly from his predecessors.

    Stuffing the run, forcing 3-4 TOs while stampeding for 200 will make the other team buckle-up their chinstraps.

    If the Bears can match the Ravens’ intensity that will bode well going forward.

    On O, it’s simple enough. Will Ravens respect Caleb Williams enough to go with a light-box like the Saints, and if so, will that open up the run game again?

    [D’Andre Swift is nursing a groin FWIW]

    Follow up question: if the Ravens don’t respect Caleb enough and decide to go full-Ravens and crowd the LOS, how will Caleb respond after a down Saints’ game?

    172 yds, 1 INT, 61.7 Rating

    Will he pull out of the slump?

    Something else to keep an eye on is Theo Benedet especially since rumors are swirling about trading Braxton Jones. Here’s an in-depth breakdown of his performance vs Saints.

    Speaking of trade rumors, there’s waaaay too many to track here, but luckily Harrison Graham covers some names, first and foremost DE Jermaine Johnson [Jets] and maaaybe Mad Maxx Crosby.

    On D, well, I keep waiting for the turnover ride to be over, but it keeps going, so screw it, let’s go Dennis “The Menace” Allen!

    We gotta keep an eye on if Tyrique Stevenson will play because if not the Bears will have to start Nick McCloud or Josh Blackwell, essentially CB#4/5. Not exactly ideal if Lamar is back.

    Austin Booker should return, so that’s a boost.

    At any rate, the Ravens score 24 PPG [13th] and are 13th in 3rd down conversions with Jackson, and that’s really the crux.

    Lamar’s QB rating is a mind-boggling 130 [1st] with 10TDs/1INT and naturally a bunch of back-breaking runs.

    IF Lamar plays, and is maybe like 60%, I think the Bears might be able to contain him. Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Booker, Tremaine Edmunds and even Dominque Robinson are relatively athletic – they just must remember to stay discipline and close in under control.

    Maybe Dennis Allen plays more zone and blitzes less [particularly if Stevenson doesn’t play] in order to minimize those big Lamar lanes.

    My biggest worry might be a rested King Henry [5.0 YPC] and their TE Mark Andrews especially if TJ Edwards has to cover him.

    Otherwise, it’ll be the Lamar show.

    Overtime:

    Apparently, Luther Burden is starting Festivus early and airing his grievances about not getting the ball enough. Well, it’s a little hard to feed the 5th option when the QB only has only completed 15 [Saints] and 17[WASH] passes in last two games. I guess we’ll find out how Ben Johnson handles this.

    Also, what’s going to happen with the kicker situation? Is Cairo Santos returning, and if so, are they going to put Jake Moody back on the Practice Squad and risk a team, like say the Gmen, poaching him?

    Will the Bears actually carry TWO kickers on the 53? [nobody tell the Rev…]