“A lot of these playoff games are not won but lost” – Collinsworth
Sheil Kapadia@SheilKapadia ·2h So many missed opportunities for Bears:
4th-and-2 fail –> INT 3rd-and-1, 4th-and-1 fail –> TO on downs 3rd-and-1 fail –> Punt 1st-and-goal from Rams’ 5 –> TO on downs Ball at Rams’ 48 in OT –> INT
5 Stages of Grief(DABDA):
Denial: Ben Johnson opted for the easy FG in the first drive and the Calab miracle TD bomb ended the game, right? That’s how it usually goes for the Bounceback Bears.
Anger: I can’t fucking believe BJ didn’t settle for the 3, or that this wunderkind could only muster 7 points in the 2nd half while totally blowing short yard conversions. Don’t get me started on the drops or DJ…
Bargaining: Well, at least we didn’t lose to the Puke nor did we get totally blown out like the 9ers.
Depression: This sucks. I’m deflated. It was such a fun season, perhaps the most dramatic and magical since ’85. I didn’t want the high to end like an addict needing just one more fix.
Acceptance: If you had asked any Bear fan in August, “Hey, would you take the #2 Seed while eliminating the Pack in the most devasting fashion, then barely lose in the Div Rd?” We would’ve all signed up for that. This is BJ’s debut as an HC. Caleb’s first year under his system. The D, and even specials, punched above their weight. Bears roster a young hungry talented core who BELIEVE.
The #Bears have given up 415 points this season The crazy part is, they’ve given up 136 (32.7%) to 3 teams alone (all away games) In the other 14 games, they gave up an average of 19.9PPG. In their 9 home games (including the playoffs) they’ve allowed 18.7PPG, which ranks 10th
[Needless to say, Verse vs LT will be a battle to monitor]
The game may come down to how windy it is. If it’s too windy to pass, both teams will be forced to rely on the run, and neither have run as well as earlier in the season. If Thuney is indeed moved to LT, and McFadden starts at LG, gotta wonder how that may affect chemistry, combos, timing, etc.
Wind may also screw with the Rams’ specials which have struggled mightily. Santos may not have the strongest leg, but he’s made 50+ yarders in cold blustery clutch conditions.
If it isn’t that windy, then Stafford [likely MVP] can definitely dissect this toothless D IF it can’t generate pressure.
Allen is caught in a catch 22:
The front 4 aren’t monsters, but if he blitzes, Stafford has been a stone cold assassin:
Matt Stafford has a 125.4 passer rating with 32 TDs and an INT when facing the blitz. He also doesn’t turn the ball over; he set a record with 28 consecutive TD passes without an INT earlier this year.
So Da Beloved have their work cut out for them either way, but hey, what’s new?
They’ve been defying the odds all year. No reason to stop bearlieving now.
Bills@Broncos first to kick-off. My stepdad is from CO, so he’s a semi-casual Donk fan [who naturally despises the Raiders]. As such, I’ll be rooting for them; however, Bo Nix is young; they’re loaded and Payton isn’t going anywhere, so if they lose on Saturday, they’ll still be perennial contenders for a few more years.
I think the Broncos will win mostly because the Bills’ D seems to fall apart in the playoffs, and Payton is a smarter Sean than McDermott.
I am curious to see if the vaunted Donks’ D can contain Allen though.
The Broncos are similar to the Bears in starting slow but finding magic late with a sophomore QB, the difference being their D tends to keep it low scoring. I seriously doubt Bo can put up 25 points in the 4rth like Caleb, but he seems to do just enough.
That’s how they ended up with the #1 Seed after all. Like most, I got a soft spot for Bills’ Mafia, so I just want a good game.
9ers@Hawks. The most unpredictable games are division games, esp division playoffs games as we gleefully witnessed in the WC RD.
For our purposes, we want SEA to lose so that 9ers must travel to SF, but I tell you, I almost prefer the Bears facing SEA on the road than playing SF at home because Purdy/Shanahan absolutely paddled the Bears’ ass to the tune of 42 points, and it could’ve easily been 50.
The SEA D IMO is the best this season. They held the 9ers to 3 measly points last time they played for the #1 Seed, and it’s hard to envision the 9ers’ O suddenly becoming more explosive against them esp w/out Kittle [achilles]. I think the 9ers’ INJ plague finally catches up to them, and they lose; obviously I wouldn’t mind the opposite to set up a 9er rematch at SF.
For what it’s worth, think the COY should come down to Shanahan and Ben Johnson, and this weekend might determine who wins it.
Per ESPN, Bears had a 13.5% chance before the season to win the NFC North.
After starting 0-2 in the division, odds plummeted to the low single digits.
Tonight, they earned the crown. 👑🐻⬇️
Against all odds, the Chicago Bears kept the faith & kept fighting until it was theirs! — Jacob Infante
Since the NFL merger in 1970, just 43 of 422 teams made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, a percentage of just 10.1% — Caleb on that 4th & 8 throw of the year: Running 13.2 MPH to his non-dominant side 35.3 yards in the air
— Bears vs Packers this season:
Offensive plays with the lead Packers: 106 Bears: 0 — The Bears are 3-3 when down 10+ points in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter this season.
The rest of the NFL is 3-158
—
Bears have won 6 games trailing inside 2 minutes. That’s impossible – Collinsworth — Notable #Bears win percentages in key games they’ve won this year:
Raiders: 19.3%
Commanders: 15.9%
Bengals: 14.1%
Giants: 4.0%
Vikings: 24.9%
Packers: 3.0%
The probability of all those games being wins? 0.0001295%.
Raiders needed a blocked FG Commies needed a fumbled snap/recovery Bengals score over 42 points + Loveland Gmen down 20-10 with 4:00 Vikings down 16-17 with :50 left + Durvernay KR Packers onside recovery, TD, 2 point etc Packers III 25 points in 4rth QTR
Bears odds of winning all 7 of these 4th qtr comebacks…1 in 61 million.
Wish Data was around to quan the maths, but needless to say, Bounceback Bears have defied all logic. There’s a word for that – magical. Christian Watson expressed the improbable season best.
Packers WR Christian Watson was completely shocked watching Bears QB Caleb Williams make magic converting the 4th & 8 to Rome Odunze:
These Bears will find a way. The Bears are the living avatars of “Just win, baby.” How many game day threads began “Same Ole Bears” and ended “How the F did they pull that one off!”
By now it’s a feature, not bug. Granted, that doesn’t make the Bears invincible. They were home underdogs vs Packers, now Rams, and likely will be the dogs until confetti drops on their heads; however, their “magic” fizzled out vs Ravens, 9ers, Lions[2X], and NEARLY to 6 other teams.
So here are some pertinent deets vs the Rams specifically.
Matthew Stafford's last 10 games outdoors in the rain/snow:
• 1-9 record • 16 TDs • 11 INTs
The current forecast for Sunday's game:
• 20 degrees • 18 mph wind • 55% chance of snow
The Rams are favored over the Bears on Polymarket.
It should be noted that Matthew Stafford [whose thumb may or may not be INJed] was born in FL, grew up in TX, played at GA, then for domed Lions and now sunny LAR. He has struggled in cold weather games, and has a penchant for self-destructing a la Jared Goff. Did you watch the final Aaron Rodgers’ game? Old QBs don’t like being hit, and they REALLY don’t like being broken in half like an icicle when it’s freezing, snowy and windy.
Matt Stafford's stats this season: 65% comp 4707 Yards 46 TD 8 INT
He's played 2 games this season not in a dome where the temperature is below 50 degrees
In general,domed teams this past decade are 1-15 in the playoffs when kickoff was at/below 40°
That being said, what WOULD worry me is that Goffesque QBs can dissect this “Bend Don’t Break D.” Goff did it twice. Brock Purdy once. Shit, even Grandpa Joe Flacco lit them up for 42 and had all of us sniffing glue on that final drive that ultimately floundered.
Savvy vet QBs [and two efficient backups] have made this defense look terrible, and they weren’t coached by Sean McVay.
Rams also roster lethal talent: Nacua, top 3 TE combo, top 3 HB combo, Verse, Young…
So none of us should bet our mortgage down quite yet.
Jeff’s famous line was “Why Do I like the Bears? I always like the Bears.”
Well, these Bears convert even haters into fans like Rocky-v-Drago.
Why do I like the Bears? I don’t. I LOVE these Bears, and I Bearlieve.
