“One can make a valid argument and still be wrong” the Prof boomed
It’s a concept I never truly considered. I was young, so still lived in a black-and-white world where everything is either right or wrong, no gray [life cures you of that, btw]
A flat-earther is not likely to win any debate because by default that argument won’t be valid. Too much overwhelming evidence to the contrary
But one can make a valid argument that intelligent life exists outside earth And one can make a valid argument that it does not
A LOT of issues are like this [perhaps too many unless you just like arguing]
Enter the draft
It’s basically just one big argument
GMs are making the case for THEIR methodology, for THEIR guys
They’re likely not going to be YOUR methodology or guys, and this is where the endless mocks, big boards, debates and post-mortem dissecting originate
Exhibit A
Last year Poles stayed at #9 and drafted Rome. That was a valid move It was valid because many graded Rome as a top 3 WR, and sure-fire top-10, even 5, talent [more so than WR Tet McMillan who went #8 overall]. Everyone knew Keenan Allen was just a band-aid, hence WR still a need
Nevertheless, some favored other prospects like Fashanu, Murphy, Dallas Turner… Some preferred to trade down and draft [fill in the blank] Others, like me, wanted the DOUBLE trade-down then nab Graham Barton, C, Duke
Guess what?
All were valid plans: staying put, trading down, trading down twice
[What was NOT valid IMO was trading UP for Rome, which Poles almost did since he’s no Howie Roseman]
2015 Butch would’ve been FURIOUS Poles didn’t trade down and draft Graham. Now? Maybe I’ve mellowed, or tuned,-out, but I’m more patient, “OK. I am not as high on Rome as Poles, but I’ll give Rome a shot”
This came from experience. I specifically remember the 2013 NFL Draft
In that draft, Emery drafted Kyle Long at #20. I borderline HATED that pick, and became a nigh insufferable prick about it!
I was SURE my plan to draft Eifert [who many comp Loveland to] or Sharrif Floyd, then scoop Warford later, was the correct plan
IMO Emery was just wrong, and naturally, I the Golden-God and bringer of football light, was right
Well, as it turned out, ALL THREE: Long, Floyd, and Eifert were derailed by INJs
While Warford no doubt was the better OG than Long, and stolen in the 3rd, he didn’t help the Lions win any SBs
In fact, how many SBs did the Bears, Vikings or Lions win after 2013?
ZERO
Maybe in the micro I was a bit more right. Eifert+Warford was likely more optimal than Long+Bostic, but in the macro, it barely registered because the Bears employed Emery as GM, Trestman as HC, and Cutler at QB
Floyd, Eifert, or nearly any prospect, was never going to miraculously make those 3 HOFers
Heck, KC drafted Kelce in the 3rd that year, and it still wasn’t enough ’til Mahomes
And oh yeah, lest we forget, nearly every Bear fan at that time was clamoring for the two ‘lock’ OGs: Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack. Both went Top 10
Both BUSTED. Worse than Long
And let us recall everyone wanting Solomon Thomas in the Trubisky draft
‘Valid’ pertaining to the NFL Draft is scarily relative. In science it may take 100s of years to disprove the sun revolves around earth, but in the NFL your ‘theory’ is proven ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ inside 3-4 years
And if you wrong – you gone However, it’s about being wrong at QB/HC
Truth is, much like in 2013, this 2025 draft is practically superfluous because the REAL determiner of Bears’ success is already in place: Caleb, BJ, and Poles [in that order]
4rth Rd. 7th pick overall [#109] via ‘25 Bills’ trade back 5th Rd. 10th overall [#148] via ‘24 Bills trade for Booker? 6th Rd. None 7th Rd. 17th overall [#233]
Honestly, these players rarely provide anything. Who was the last Bears’ 4rth rounder who panned out, Eddie Jackson? Though these RDs aren’t completely useless. Braxton was a 5th rounder, and I’m sure some old fogie will remind us that Dent was an 8th rounder
Since this was a deep HB class, and Bears have yet to draft a HB, the 4rth may be a great RD for value. My pick? Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech Though case can be made for other options like Dylan Sampson, Skattebo, et al
Below is USA TODAY’s best available list. Only real hardcore draft dorks will recognize most of these names, so if you do, congrats…and get a life!
—Best Available [RDs 4-7]—
47. Bradyn Swinson, DE, LSU
He hasn’t enjoyed the widespread recognition of some other edge rushers in this draft class, but he deserves a higher profile. The 6-4, 250-pounder is extremely explosive, with the speed-to-power move to jolt offensive linemen when he’s not simply dipping past them.
6. Will Johnson, CB, Michigan The comparisons to Pat Surtain II – the Denver Broncos cornerback and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year – are lofty but not outlandish. The 6-2, 194-pounder puts together the size, fluidity and instincts to handle any coverage assignment. Johnson isn’t a true burner and saw his 2024 season go sideways due to a toe injury, but he otherwise projects as a sticky corner who should have excellent ball production.
13. Mike Green, DE/OLB, Marshall The Football Bowl Subdivision leader in sacks (17 in 2024) employs a far more physical approach than one might expect from a 6-3, 251-pound edge rusher. He risks stalling out if he doesn’t continue to fill out his frame, but his relentless style and elasticity as a rusher should position him to make plenty of plays in the backfield.
22. Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE/OLB, Boston College After notching 16 ½ sacks last season, Ezeiruaku already seems to have a master’s degree in pass-rushing, as he has a full toolkit of moves he is prepared to wield at just the right moment. His 6-3, 248-pound build still will likely result in him being erased by bigger blockers, particularly in the run game, but he compensates for it by leveraging his length, agility and smarts.
25. Shavon Revel Jr., CB, East Carolina If not for a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered in September, he might be firmly entrenched as a first-rounder, as the 6-2, 194-pounder marries an ultra-competitive demeanor at the line of scrimmage with impressive recovery speed and improving ball skills. His health outlook will no doubt loom large in his evaluation, but if he can find the right fit with a defensive coordinator patient enough to bring him along – his style of play might make him prone to early penalties, and there will be a significant leap in quality of competition – he could be a highly productive starter.
28. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado Despite operating in a spotlight that might blind other passers, Sanders somehow managed to exceed outsized expectations by establishing himself as a precise and poised distributor. How he handles pressure at the next level could be one of the biggest determining factors in the trajectory of his career, but he could be a more than capable starter for an offense that asks him to conduct more often than create.
30. Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri At a time when other receivers shined, his 2024 season ended up quite turbulent, with the dynamic slot target averaging just 11.1 yards per game. Expanding his route tree in the pros could be the key to whether he remains primarily a threat on quick hitters underneath or becomes a more well-rounded target capable of threatening defenses downfield, though he likely will require a heavy dose of schemed touches early on.
36. Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina At 6-3 and 220 pounds with the speed of a cornerback, he seems perfectly suited to match up with tight ends and bigger receivers. Emmanwori is a bit wild when working downhill against the run and may lack the fluidity to handle work in the slot, but his excellent ball skills and physical tools should prove plenty alluring to many teams.
37. Landon Jackson, DE, Arkansas The LSU transfer is the kind of player any offensive tackle hates to see lining up across from him, as the 6-6, 264-pounder boasts daunting length, an impressive arsenal of pass-rush moves and a never-say-die mentality. Jackson might be too big for his own good, however, as his rigidity severely limits him in several phases of the game.
38. Trey Amos, CB, Mississippi Test the 6-1, 195-pound cover man at your own peril, as Amos can close in on any throw in his area in a hurry. He’s better suited for zone work than man coverage right now, but he could become a significant asset in press looks if he improves his ability to recover.
39. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State Once he gets to the corner, watch out. The 5-10, 202-pounder can’t always fight his way through to daylight on inside runs, but Henderson has the burst to break long gains whenever he’s given a crease. Already a comfortable pass protector and reliable receiver, he should be a three-down option from Day 1.
40. Azareye’h Thomas, CB, Florida State The Senior Bowl standout has given evaluators reason to go back and take a closer look at one of the few bright spots in a disappointing season for the Seminoles. The 6-2, 197-pounder has a strong claim to be the premier pest of this defensive class, as he regularly smothers receivers at the line of scrimmage with his length and hyperphysical approach. He might not generate a ton of plays on the ball and won’t be a fit for every scheme, but any team looking for an in-your-face coverage presence has to give him strong consideration.
41. Nic Scourton, DE, Texas A&M The 6-4, 257-pounder can be a load for any lineman to handle, as he embraces contact with active hands, a high-energy approach and plenty of knowhow. Though his hustle and expansive set of pass-rush moves could take him a good distance, he might not have the upside of other edge rushers in the class given his mostly unremarkable physical traits.
43. Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa Johnson single-handedly invigorated Iowa’s long dormant offense with his smooth running style, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. The 6-0, 225-pounder is patient yet decisive in his approach, snaking around would-be tacklers to find the open field. His limited comfort level in the passing game – particularly in protection – could box him in somewhat during the early portion of his career.
45. Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA The walk-on who became an All-American is more than just a feel-good story. Schwesinger’s rapid recognition skills often enable him to find his way to the ball carrier faster than blockers can reach him, though he does have trouble disengaging opponents when they do beat him to the spot.
46. Mason Taylor, TE, LSU The son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor has made a name for himself on the other side of the ball, proving to be a fluid pass catcher comfortable operating both in space and in traffic. He’s not as dynamic as this year’s top tier tight ends and is more likely to be a complementary piece than a go-to target, but he can still be a highly effective weapon for the right offense.
47. Bradyn Swinson, DE, LSU He hasn’t enjoyed the widespread recognition of some other edge rushers in this draft class, but he deserves a higher profile. The 6-4, 250-pounder is extremely explosive, with the speed-to-power move to jolt offensive linemen when he’s not simply dipping past them.
48. Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State The appeal of trotting out a 6-4, 214-pound wideout doesn’t require explanation. Higgins poses a major problem in the red zone and contested-catch scenarios, though he might be relegated to a big slot role until he refines his game a little further.
49. JT Tuimoloau, DE, Ohio State His impact at the next level is likely to be measured more in pressures than sacks, but his disruption still comes in handy. The 6-5, 269-pound Tuimoloau lacks diversity as an edge rusher who relies almost entirely on his ability to push back opposing linemen, but his one trick is plenty good.
50. Aireontae Ersery, OT, Minnesota At 6-6 and 331 pounds, Ersery is nimble enough to corral speedy edge threats yet strong enough to lock down anyone who tries to engage him. Things can get dicey when he has to recover or face a counter move, but his tools are worth developing.
… as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.
-Rumsfeld Buddha Socrates
Known knowns. Not replacing any time soon QB, WR1, WR2, C, LE, CB1, Nickle, K/P
That’s about all we THINK we know
Known Unknowns. Could see upgrading for various reason [age, cap, talent, INJ…]
TE1? HB1? IOL? LT? WR3? SS? FS? RDE? DT? NT? SAM?
Obviously, this list is long, and all those positions could easily get upgraded or solidified; then it just becomes a matter of choosing wisely
Unknown Unknowns. Wild cards we are blind to
You can dust off your tinfoil hat and create nearly any narrative
-Maybe new regime doesn’t like the effort DJ gave last season, so WR1 is not so ‘known’. -Maybe they think Stevenson is beyond redemption and CB2 suddenly becomes a priority -Maybe Braxton is more INJed than let on, etc etc
I mean, who predicted Poles would let Walker go and extend Edwards? Hell, Jeff deemed Gordon a JAG, then Poles made him the highest paid NB!
Now expand Unknown Unknowns to nearly every team outside the first 4 picks, and nearly every prospect from 5-50, and voila
Welcome to the ‘25 draft
Little will shock me
Don’t be surprised IF:
1. Jeanty goes before Raiders/or falls to #10 2. Graham makes it to Bears, and they pass 3. Anything about Shadeur. Dart may go first 4. Loveland drafted before Warren 5. Bears ‘reach’ for a player like Simmons
Really, about the only scenario that will upset me is if Poles trades UP [unless it’s for Abdul] cuz the board screams to stay put or trade down, and I don’t know about y’all, but I’m done with Halas Hall believing they’re smarter than the entire league, logic and reality itself
I need another mock like I need another app to download.
This ain’t my first rodeo, and I was much more invested in the draft before. I even bought hardcopies of Hub Arkush’s “Pro Football Weekly.”
Later I would print-out pages of the top 300 or so, thumb through them, use different colored highlighters for the guys I liked, cross them out as the draft unfolded. I was into it. I’ve always loved puzzles, and the draft is a puzzle, soap opera and competition all-in-one; it offers a little bit for everyone, from the casual fan to the analytic nerd.
However, now I’m not as into it. I got tired of screaming at my TV, “Trade up for Aaron Donald!” [new blog, same gripe], “Why are we drafting a 230 pound LB who doesn’t fit into Lovie’s scheme!”, “Trubisky – Trubisky?”
Years and years of bitter disappointment sucked my draft enthusiasm. I’m an optimist by nature, but boy come draft time, Bears always find a way to really test that.
Nevertheless, I still enjoy it. I find myself every March/April looking at way too much college tape, mock drafts, and combine. Old habits die hard.
So how is this Bears’ draft any different than the previous?
It’s not, really. Or – that is to say, we won’t know until about 3 yrs, but that’s no fun.
So live a little.
What makes this draft more fun for us:
Bears finally roster a franchise QB. Whether Caleb is a HOFer, or better than Jayden, Stroud, Mahomes, who knows? But we know what he’s not. Caleb is NOT McNown, Trubisky, Fields or the trainwreck of others like Dalton, Glennon, Barkley…other teams may take a starting lvl QB for granted but NOT us, and that in itself distinguishes the ’25 draft.
Bears MIGHT finally employ a REAL offensive oriented HC in Ben Johnson. Again, try to remember the last time the Bears could boast that. Yeah, exactly.
These two factors should bring more hope to us Bear fans in this draft.
And as Emily Dickenson once wrote, “Hope is a thing with feathers…and trade downs.”
