One detail that stuck in my mind…instead of Caleb being all jubilant over the Browns ass-kicking, he was still salty from the previous loss at Lambeau even invoking the immortal words of Dennis Green, “We feel like we left them off the hook.” Other players expressed similar sentiments.
Bears really don’t like the Puke, and as we saw on TNF, when SEA felt disrespected ‘laughed at’, they flipped the switch.
BJ also doesn’t want to be made the fool for that whole “Kind of enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year” WWF statement.
Packers Final Injury Report Out: RB MarShawn Lloyd (calf/hamstring), TE Josh Whyle (concussion), G John Williams (back).[Parsons – OUT OUT]
Questionable: RB Chris Brooks (chest), DE Brenton Cox (groin), DE Kingsley Enagbare (illness), RB Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle), T/G Darian Kinnard (neck), DE Collin Oliver (hamstring), RT Zach Tom (knee/back), WR Christian Watson (chest/shoulder), WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), S Evan Williams (knee).
Note: Oliver, Cox and John Williams have been designated for return from injured reserve and are within their 21-day practice windows.
Bears Final Injury Report Out: WR Luther Burden III (ankle), WR Rome Odunze (foot), LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (hamstring).
Questionable: DE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (personal), LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin), TE Cole Kmet (ankle/knee), RB DāAndre Swift (groin).
Note: Edmunds has been designated for return from injured reserve and is within his 21-day practice window
Naturally, Micah Parsons [ACL tear, 9 month recovery] out plus Christian Watson and Josh Jacobs as Questionable are tremendous losses. Even if Jacobs and Watson suit up, they can’t possibly be anywhere close to 100%.
Bears without Rome/Burden sucks as well, but Bears are a run first, 12 personnel team at heart, so all Zaccheus, Duvernay and Walker have to do is stay upright, block, and catch occasionally.
I think BJ will be smart enough to target DJ, Loveland and Kmet on key downs.
What I really want to write about though is that for the first time since maaaybe ’18, I believe the Bears can finish – not just with a winning record, or Wild Card appearance – but with a SB. The ’25 Bears can win it all.
Yes – all. The whole enchilada. The whole 9 yards. The entire shebang or whatever other phrases exist for them winning a SB.
It’s a confluence of many factors.
1. No real super-team this season. Week in, week out, I have witnessed playoff teams ‘upset’. Whether it’s Pats losing to Raiders, Pack losing to Browns, Rams losing to Panthers, Bills losing to Dolphins, Broncos losing to Chargers, etc it’s one of those years where seemingly any team can indeed beat any favorite any given Sunday. So why not us?
2. Bears find different ways to win in crunch time.
Whether it’s a QB scramble, a big KR, a blocked FG, a forced fumble, an incredible INT, improbable throw/catch, or bruising runs to close, the Bears just get ‘er done. By now, they simply BELIEVE they will win. How barely matters. They’ve essentially been in playoff mode since week 3 [Cowboys], so a little pressure isn’t going to phase them.
3. Bears’ formula wins late season.
Don’t know if you noticed, but it’s getting pretty freaking freezing out there. Luckily, the Bears are a run first team. The 1-2 punch of Swift-Monangai is now spoken in the same breath as Gibbs-Monty, Kyle Williams-Corum while The Oline ranks top 5 on many sites. And, oh yeah, they have two great blocking TEs in Kmet/Loveland.
Caleb Williams is arguably the best scrambler too which I appreciate even more after watching Stafford-v-Darnold on TNF.
Another part of the Bears’ formula is they don’t turn it over much.
Caleb rarely throws INTs, actually breaking the record for fewest INTs through the first 1K passing attempts. Unlike his predecessors , [looking at you Smoking Jay], he rarely gets strip-sacked [or even sacked].
Swift also doesn’t fumble much while Monangai at Rutgers attempted 669 rushes with ZERO fumbles.
So Bears don’t give away many freebies.
Which dovetails well with CREATING defensive TOs. #1 in NFL with 20, and #2 Texans aren’t even close with 14.
I, like many, was initially skeptical about Bears’ D keeping it up. As they say, TOs are unpredictable – not a good bet; nevertheless, Dennis Allen has made it just that – bankable. Somehow, someway, that D forces INTs/Fumbles, and they create momentum to win especially in hostile environments.
19.7% of the Bears' defensive drives have ended in a turnover
Run fiercely+ block well+ limit TOs+ Force TOs= Wins
Oh, and they’re clutch!
4. Bears have elite coaching.
Wow. Can’t believe I just typed that. I’m having an out of body experience just reading that aloud.
Bears have elite coaching for the first time since Zubas were cool; I TRUST our brains outsmarting theirs.
The easy example is Ben Johnson which doesn’t need much explaining, but Dennis Allen may actually be doing a superior job at DC given what he has.
It’s not just them either. Look at the incredible turnaround of the Oline in just one season. Gotta give props to Dan Roushar for that.
The secondary is playing out of its mind, big pat of the back [to future HC] Al Harris.
Def Line coach Jeremy Garrett may even be sneaky good. Sweat has quietly notched 8.5 sacks, Booker in 7 games has 3 sacks, while the run D has recovered from being a sieve early season.
via Matt Marton/Imagn I don’t really believe in ‘moral losses’, but sometimes, they do happen. After Philly, many still claimed Bears were “fun frauds”. However, after nearly stealing a win at Lambeau, the league no longer scoffs.
I compared this team to both the SB winning Saints and Gmen; the Gmen in their finale took the Pats to the limit, ultimately losing 38-35.
Now you figure, ‘wow, tough loss. Gut punch and no way to lurch into the playoffs’, but it was quite the opposite.
āI know what everybody wrote and what everybody said we should do (against the Pats) and all the experts. Well, these are the same people that said we werenāt going to be in this position (10-6) and be in the playoffs, so we really donāt care what they say…[Antonio] Pierce [continued]. āAll the experts supposedly said we were going to get beat by 20 or 30 points or whatever it was. That came down to the last couple minutes of the game.ā
āWith that mentality, again we are going into a place where our backs are going to be against the wall, where we play our best. And I hope we can go out there and show it off.ā
Sound familiar? Let’s hope history repeats. No reason it can’t.
1. Caleb Williams was on point. [17/28, 242, 2 TDs, 112.5 QB Rating]
Been making a lot about his comp% because regardless of what some Caleb-stans want to believe, accuracy does matter.
So many games are lost on balls that are behind, drive dead. Game over. Ball too high, off hand, right into a critical INT. Or just plain ole misfires that leave a fan scratching his head.
I was actually surprised to see that Caleb’s comp% was ‘only’ 60.7% vs Browns.
Caleb Williams managed to crack the 60% completion percentage barrier for the 5th time this season (out of 14 games) vs. Browns. ā¢ Vikings 60.0% ā¢ Lions 63.3% ā¢ Cowboys 67.9% (Season-High) ā¢ Ravens 65.8% ā¢ Browns 60.7%
Luckily for the Bears, they faced an even less efficient QB!
Shedeur Sanders has a sub 60% completion percentage in 4 of his 5 games:
Caleb’s comp% felt higher because it wasn’t simply completing the passes, but the ball placement of said completions. They seemed to strike that hit-box over and over again.
The Kmet catch where he gets up-ended really excited me. It was nothing spectacular. A simple play-action boot to a wide open Kmet in the flats, but Caleb didn’t sail it, or throw it too low, or late. He floated it in there allowing Kmet to turn up field and convert a 1st down.
That was the theme of the day. YAC. And the receivers YACked it up ’cause Caleb for the most part hit them in stride on a chilly day.
If Caleb keeps playing like that consistently over 4 QTRs, I tell you now, they have a legit SB chance especially if Swift keeps running like Forte [what du fook did Swift eat!]and defense continues creating TOs.
From ESPN Research: The Bears pressured Shedeur Sanders on 20 of his 42 dropbacks (48%), their highest pressure percentage in a game this season. Chicago entered ranked 31st in the NFL with a 24% pressure percentage on the season. Ā Sanders has been pressured on 46% of hisā¦
2. Speaking of which, wowzers, Dennis Allen wasn’t screwing around. The NFL gods threw him a raw QB who struggles with recognition, accuracy and timing, and unleashed the hounds of hell. No quarter offered – nor given. I love it.
TBH, this is sorta what I expected. My only reservation was if the Bears could generate enough pressure on Shedeur Sanders for him to implode, and boy did they. As the Latin maxim goes, “If you’re not strong, you better be smart” and Allen completely outflanked the Browns’ O. Austin Booker specifically had himself a game.
In 6 games, he has 22 TOT, 14 Solo, 3 sacks, 2* TFL.
The Bears win by 28+ for the first time since 2020, get their first 5-sack game since October 2023, and have won 10 games for the first time since 2018.
The defense dominated. The 3 points only came because BJ failed on a 4rth and gave the Browns the ball at midfield. Add junk-time yards in that final drive where the Browns still couldn’t score, and that’s about it. This Browns teams wanted nothing to do with winning at a freezing SF.
Overtime: We’ve given the special teams the biz [and for good reason], but they were good on Sunday [Outside the Santos missed FG]. Nice returns from Duvernay, solid gunning, Tori/Blackwell pinning Browns inside 1. I think it had more to do with the Browns sucking than the Bears’ sp teams transforming into Toub-ers, but hey, I’ll take it.
All in all, by far the Bears’ most complete game this season. I didn’t even have to bust out my glue in the 4rth QTR! Only took 15 weeks, but hey, it’s better to be gelling late heading into the playoffs then falling apart like the Chiefs.
Maybe it’s the eggnog, but I’m getting 2009 Saints/2011 Giants vibe.
In those seasons, neither were SB favorites in August, and both squads were far from a perfect roster.
The Saints particularly remind me of this D
The 2009 New Orleans Saints defense, underĀ aggressive coordinatorĀ Gregg Williams, wasn’t dominant in yards/points but excelled at forcing turnovers (2nd in NFL with 39), leading to their Super Bowl XLIV win, featuring key playmakers likeĀ Darren SharperĀ (9 INTs),Ā Will SmithĀ (13 sacks),Ā Jonathan Vilma, andĀ Tracy Porter, who sealed the championship with a famous pick-six
Meanwhile the ’11 Gmen [9-7] had a young QB with ‘so so’ stats, but all he did was make clutch plays to win games in Eli Manning.
Bears are some hybrid of those two SB Champs, and in a year where no true juggernauts exist, hey – why not the Bears?
Browns, Pack, @9ers, home finale Lions, and that’s a wrap.
Season has flown by, and we’re zooming into 2026. So savor it.
Ever consider Chicagoās never had a 4,000 yard QB because part of their games are played in weather you simply canāt throw in? š¤·āāļø pic.twitter.com/ntZccebEBL
This is going to be a cold AF game. Like Dante’s 9th circle of hell freezing. Could be windy too, so the passing game will likely suffer.
That type of game should theoretically favor the Bears with their potent 1-2 HB punch while limiting Myles Garrett. However, Browns are no push-overs. Gotta remember they BEAT the Packers 13-10. I loved Quinshon Judkins in the draft and was hoping Poles could somehow steal him. He’s a 5’11, 220 pound hammer who runs a 4.48.
That being said, Shedeur’s depth of target is relatively low [screens]and his season long comp% is 52.4% [hey, finally a QB lower than Caleb!], so the key will be for Dennis Allen to find some way to pressure him. If Allen befuddles the rook, we could see a multiple INT game. If not, well, see above.
Their defense is scary lead by this generation’s Julius Peppers.
Myles Garrett already has 20 sacks! He needs 3 more vs Bears to break the all-time record of 22 [if I recall, Strahan got that with a little help from his buddy Favre]. Garrett’s record breaking campaign impresses more given the fact that the Browns were likely trailing in most games. Man, I hope Bears start recruiting him for next season!
Garrett is also a beast against the run, so via con dios, Ozzy Trapilo. Their run D overall has limited explosive runs [11th best] but allowed 2 vs Titans while the Bears didn’t have a run play over 10 yds vs Pack, so this is anyone’s guess in freezing conditions.
TLDR.
Bears control run, TOP, with tactical Caleb strikes while pressuring Shedeur = WIN.
*Cairo Santos doesn’t cuck it
According to ESPN analytics the Bears rank:
31st in pass rush win rate 27th run stop win rate.
We cover Caleb Williams a lot since QB is the most important position in all of sports, but we gotta give some laurels to what Dan Roushar is doing with that Oline.
Our 2024 Oline was abject dogshit. Now it’s one of the top units in all the NFL. I don’t think I’ve ever experienced this dramatic turn around for a Bears unit in my lifetime.
Here is Roushar’s former OT Terron Armstead talking about his coaching.
If you’re wondering about Ozzy Trapilo specifically, here is an excellent breakdown of him thus far.
Haven’t shared some Tim Jenkins Caleb Williams’ breakdown in a spell. Mostly ’cause Caleb gets sliced and diced more than a frog in a Jr. High Science class.
But here is a thorough analysis of every Caleb throw vs Puke.
One. It’s a bit frustrating seeing Caleb throw absolute perfect balls to Cole Kmet on the scramble drill, then Olamide ZaccheausĀ for that TD with a CB draped all over him; then the very first clip Caleb sails badly, or that last INT to lose the game.
Caleb is at 52.5% for the last 5 games which is actually LOWER than Kyle Orton [in 2nd yr].
I keep bringing up Kyle Orton on purpose since I don’t think that’s necessarily an insult. He finished his rook campaign at 51.6%, but more importantly, with a 10-5 record showing that a QB can win as a ‘game manager’. Problem is Orton’s D was much better than this ’25 D. OTOH, ’25 Bears’ D is leading the league in TOs, so it’s basically a wash.
However, unlike Orton, Caleb has a much livelier arm and mobility which has translated into less sacks and more explosive plays. Needless to say, Caleb just needs to ball from the opening bell. We keep waiting for it to happen, but what if this is just who Caleb is?
Two: Pure progression vs Post/Pre-Snap Look [PSL]:
Kurt Warner is a PSL believer. He advocates that the best QBs are the smartest QBs [in the pocket], and that the best way to outsmart a D is to actually diagnose it and take advantage of its particular flaws.
For instance, we all know that a big hole in the Cover 2 is a TE right up the seam [unless you have Urlacher as the MLB]. So, that TE becomes a QB’s #1 option.
In a pure progression the #1, #2, #3, etc are already predetermined coming out of the huddle. So it doesn’t matter if they’re playing Cover 2, Cover 3, the reads are locked in.
Jenkins illustrates the pros and cons of using either in his video.
Pro. When the PS look is super muddy [Think Dennis Allen on 3rd downs]. 8 defenders all lined up close to LOS, a QB has no clue if they’re going zero blitz, some blitz, falling back to Cover 2, etc
So, pure progression simplifies it since it barely matters what the D is doing. 1, 2, 3 already baked into the play.
Con. That final Caleb INT where #1 seemed to be Kmet when maybe it could’ve been altered at the line to DJ [or just straight sprint?]. There’s plenty of other examples in this video alone. How many times throughout the season have we been screaming, “Look, he’s open!” Yes, but maybe he was the 4rth option while Caleb was running for his life.
“Predetermined” is the keyword. From the outside it looks like Caleb just locks onto a target, but maybe that’s what BJ WANTS him to do [for now].
Either way, Jenkins does an excellent job of showcasing the debate as well as explaining some of Ben Johnson’s playcalling logic.
I could go into all these stats, numbers, first half retardness, execution
But, you come here for something different
What this reminded me of was a boxer moving up in weight class
Now, I was going to try to remember some scrappy boxer moving up
Maybe Pacquiao, or Duran, or Hopkins…
They just kept moving up, and up, in class til they boxed someone who was just naturally bigger, longer, plus equally technically sound and athletic
At that point, no matter what the dog did, it just wasn’t enough.
He could’ve been technically perfect, but physics, math and empirical science are hard to overcome. Reason why most fighting sports use weight classes.
I could go into war analogies, but I digress…
Packers are just better right now Despite that, the Bears were just a throw away
