Why do I like the Bears? I always like the Bears!
Before diving into matchup proper, since a lot of fans were bitching and moaning about missing on a ‘top’ HB, I was curious how they performed week #1
1. Ashton Jeanty. 19 CAR, 38 YDs, 1TD, 2.1 yds/ra
2. Omarion Hampton. 15 CAR, 48 YDs, 3.2 yds/ra
3. Quinshon Judkins. Inactive due to beating his GF [allegedly]
4. Treyveyon Henderson. 5 CAR, 27 YDs, 5.4 yds/ra
5. RJ Harvey. 6 CAR, 70 YDs, 11.7 yds/ra
6. Caleb Johnson. 1 CAR, -2YDs, -2 yds/ra
7. Bhayshul Tuten [gem I wanted late]. 3 CAR, 11 YDs, 3.7 yds/ra
8. Cam Skattebo [aka white chocolate] 2 CAR, -3 YDs, -1.5 yds/ra
D’Andre Swift. 17 CAR, 53 YDs, 3.1 yds/ra
Meanwhile some 7th rounder named Jacory Croskey-Merritt in WK#1: 10 CAR, 82 yds, 1 TD, 8.2 yd/ra, and looked impressive as hell [if I played FF, he’d be my #1 bid on the waiver wire].
INJ report.
I tend to shy away from these this early in the week since much changes game day. Besides, our own Canada Bear does a fantastic job of updating these up to kickoff, so if you want, you can follow him on Canadian Twitter which involves sending smoke signals and quail calls…or just read his stuff here!
Lions:
LB Jack Campbell, [Ankle, DNP]
OT Taylor Decker [Shoulder, DNP]
RB Sione Vaki [Hamstring, LP]
LB Trevor Nowaske [Elbow, LP]
CB Terrion Arnold [Groin, FP]
S Daniel Thomas [Hand, FP]
Obviously the biggest name here is Taylor Decker. We were all relieved when Dayo didn’t dud vs Vikings, but remember, they were playing with their backup RT. Maybe Sweat takes advantage this week. He was pretty quiet week 1.
Bears:
CB Kyler Gordon [Hamstring, DNP]
DT Grady Jarrett [Knee, DNP]
RB Roschon Johnson [Foot, LP]
WR Jahdae Walker [Ankle, LP]
LB TJ Edwards [Hamstring [LIP]
WR DJ Moore [Groin, FP]
CB Jaylon Johnson [Groin, FP]
Both TJ Edwards and Jaylon Johnson are trending in the right direction and expected to start which are major upgrades especially since Sewell can cover about as well as a Coke machine.
Gordon [who has never played an entire season] is projected as out, while Grady Jarrett and DJ popped up on the report, so stay tuned.
What I expect from Bears
Ben Johnson chastised himself for not getting the run going more. I speculated that vs Vikings he’d likely need to pass to open up the run, and I was somewhat right. The problem was, BJ never seemed to get away from the pass, and was in way more shotgun than I prefer. This translated to arguably the least effective run game of all the openers [outside Caleb scrambles] which he took responsibility for. Also, the boot is moot if the D doesn’t respect the run.
On the other side, the Vikings started bashing the Bears late. They flipped the script and won.
Look for more 12 personnel this time, even if it means starting off more slowly. Maybe more draws to keep the D honest. BJ no doubt has more trust that the Bears’ D can serve court especially early, perhaps being more comfortable playing tight games.
On D, I think Allen won’t blitz that much, especially if Decker is out for the Lions.
For some odd reason, Goff has always mightily struggled vs Bears going back to Rams/Fangio. In fact, it was Fangio’s D which set the blueprint on how to stifle Goff. Belichick essentially used the same D against him in the SB, and they only managed a meager FG. It was so bad, McVey traded Goff to Lions, and here we are. But even Flus discombobulated Goff, and neither Fangio nor Flus are known for blitzing.
The bigger question is if Bears’ D can stop the run? They started off strong against Vikings, but boy did they wilt late [allowing 5.5 yds per run in the 4rth QTR]. Was it conditioning or lack of talent/execution? Allen’s #1 priority is to stop the run. They failed miserably last week when it mattered most; now Monty/Gibbs are revving up. You know a salty Dan Campbell would love nothing more than to ram it down BJ’s throat with Ford Field rocking.
X-Factor:
The Bears had, what, four presnap penalty vs Vikings? Some of that was attributed to Caleb’s cadence. Ironically, Ford Field will be so loud, Caleb will be using much more silent count which basically resolves the cadence issue. The drawback is the Dlinemen can fire-off, meaning more pressures. Something to monitor.
What I expect from Lions:
Well, see above. If they establish the run, then they can boot off it which is what Goff does best. At this point, they can basically call whatever they want, but I suspect they’d target our backup NB on a bunch of middle zones if Gordon is out; then it gets ugly.
On, D, should be interesting. Caleb had success, kinda, vs the zone Flores initially implemented. However, Caleb struggled when Vikes started blitzing. Blitzing Caleb is a dangerous game though. 1. He’s great at escaping and scrambling. 2. He’s actually a better passer on the run. 3. This will leave Rome/DJ/TE one-on-one. This is why teams stopped blitzing Trubisky and just sat in zone which turned him into a backup.
My guess – Lions won’t blitz at first and see how it goes much like Flores.
Overall:
Expect a tighter game with many 3 and outs on both sides. This game will come down to a handful of key plays which I think Caleb will make, and Goff won’t because, for some inexplicable reason, the Bears’ D is his kryptonite. They’ll turn it over more than the Bears, and that will be game [if Santos can actually make FGs].
Lions 13, Bears 20 [hopium]
Lions 24, Bears 10 [doomium]
Vegas: -6 Lions, 46.5 over/under. [I’d take the under unless you’re betting on a Lion’s blow-out and Bears’ garbage time scores.]
